by DantesPeak » Sat 20 Oct 2007, 12:03:18
Some interesting conclusions in this report, although no bug surprises for regular PO.com readers.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-OPEC Oil Production
Author: Toni Johnson, Staff Writer
October 19, 2007
Oil producers operating outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are responsible for producing 60 percent of the world’s oil and face increasing production hurdles. Experts say many of the non-OPEC producers have older, less productive wells, rising costs for new projects, and in some cases rising demand at home that may cut into exports.
Many non-OPEC producers are faced with wells that are quickly depleting. Some major producers, such as the United States, Mexico, and Norway, have experienced a decline in production in recent years. However, overall numbers for non-OPEC producers are bolstered by the significant increases in production from Brazil, Canada, Russia, and a few other former Soviet states. A June 2007 BP report on world energy shows that production among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, which include four top independent producers—Canada, Norway, the United States, and Mexico—dropped by about two million bpd in the last decade. Meanwhile, the former Soviet states increased production by more than 40 percent over that same time period.
Declines in Production
Once one of the fifteen-largest oil producers, Britain experienced a production decline of 10 percent in 2005, the largest (Independent) of any oil producer for the year. Although production will be bolstered by new wells in the North Sea’s Buzzard Field, Britain’s overall production is expected to continue to decline, experts say. Overall production in the North Sea, which includes that of Norway, also is expected to decline in coming years. Norwegian production fell by about 570,000 bpd from 2000 to 2006. Mexico, a major exporter to the United States, experienced about a 300,000 bpd decrease in production during the same time period. The percentage of exports out of Mexico's oil production rose slightly from 41 percent in 2000 to 45 percent in 2006, but there are doubts Mexico can sustain the current level of exports much longer.
D. Barry McKennitt, executive director of the U.S. National Association of Petroleum Investment Analysts, questions Mexico’s ability to continue to export, noting that with domestic consumption going up and production going down, “They may not be able to export to anyone in five years.” For the period of 2000 through 2006, the EIA puts U.S. production declines at about 700,000 bpd; the BP report (PDF) estimates those declines to be closer to 900,000 bpd. The EIA includes gains in refining volume while the BP report does not.
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