article from the international energy association:
" Ultimately recoverable conventional oil resources, which include initial proven and probable reserves from discovered fields, reserves growth and oil that has yet to be found, are estimated at 3.5 trillion barrels. Only a third of this total, or 1.1 trillion barrels, has been produced up to now. Undiscovered resources account for about a third of the remaining recoverable oil, the largest volumes of which are thought to lie in the Middle East, Russia and the Caspian region. Non-conventional oil resources, which have been barely developed to date, are also very large. Between 1 and 2 trillion barrels of oil sands and extra-heavy oil may be ultimately recoverable economically. These resources are largely concentrated in Canada (mainly in Alberta province) and Venezuela (in the Orinoco belt). The total long-term potentially recoverable oil-resource base, including extra-heavy oil, oil sands and oil shales (another largely undeveloped, though costly resource), is estimated at around 6.5 trillion barrels. Adding coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids increases this potential to about 9 trillion barrels. "
link http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/ ... nglish.pdf
PeakOil is You
THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)
I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by energyhoggin » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 10:36:45
Fact: There will be a limit to growth
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by ian807 » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 10:57:51
Back of the envelope calculation says this should last 100 years or thereabouts.
Of course, 1/3 is "undiscovered sources." Another 1/3 is "unconventional oil." Undiscovered may mean "doesn't exist" and "unconventional" may mean "shale oil" which may, or may not be worth getting at from an economic/ecologic/energy return point of view.
So 30 years for sure. Of course, "recoverable" is not the same as "cheap" or "strongly energy positive."
So maybe 10 to 15 years of affordable, energy-positive oil, if demand slows down enough.
"Affordable" isn't the same as "cheap" either. Maybe 5 to 7 years of under $200/barrel prices. Maybe less, if there's any sort of oil supply disruption like war in the middle east, or a demand surge through economic expansion of developing countries.
Still, the I.E.A. report is encouraging, if slightly misleading. If we're lucky, we will spend a long time powering down, and that leaves us more time to develop alternatives.
Of course, 1/3 is "undiscovered sources." Another 1/3 is "unconventional oil." Undiscovered may mean "doesn't exist" and "unconventional" may mean "shale oil" which may, or may not be worth getting at from an economic/ecologic/energy return point of view.
So 30 years for sure. Of course, "recoverable" is not the same as "cheap" or "strongly energy positive."
So maybe 10 to 15 years of affordable, energy-positive oil, if demand slows down enough.
"Affordable" isn't the same as "cheap" either. Maybe 5 to 7 years of under $200/barrel prices. Maybe less, if there's any sort of oil supply disruption like war in the middle east, or a demand surge through economic expansion of developing countries.
Still, the I.E.A. report is encouraging, if slightly misleading. If we're lucky, we will spend a long time powering down, and that leaves us more time to develop alternatives.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by Bas » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 11:03:30
Wooooohoooo!!! ![[smilie=5baby.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/5baby.gif "5baby")
And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...
And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 12:10:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'W')ooooohoooo!!!
And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...
And to think I had the impression they were becoming more pessimistic in recent years, how wrong I was...
The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.
The entire game appears to revolve around the conversion of those resources into reserves, the peakers trying to limit the volumes to the smallest numbers to scare people ( think...climate types and their models ), and the geologists and such noting for the record that there is much more available than most people think. Adding up all the obvious forms can hit 9 trillion barrels, and the IEA is just noticing like the geoscience guys do.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by MD » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 13:25:56
Could be more than 9 trillion. There are great career opportunities in energy. Great opportunities! It will take huge investment in human and capital resource in order to bring those reserves to production. Huge!
Just don't expect it to be cheap.
Just don't expect it to be cheap.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by hillsidedigger » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 13:28:01
There is a parallel discussion occurring about world timber (except of course in some places, timber is somewhat renewable).
The extractionists state that since there's 10 billion acres of timberland in the world and since only about 30 million (but growing) acres are harvested worldwide each year then there's at least 300 years of timber, not to mention that in some of those areas some trees will grow back.
In truth, 90% of the world's standing volume of desirable and worthy to extract timber is likely contained on less than 10% of the world's timberland and the decimation of that 10% will be completed in just a few more years.
The extractionists state that since there's 10 billion acres of timberland in the world and since only about 30 million (but growing) acres are harvested worldwide each year then there's at least 300 years of timber, not to mention that in some of those areas some trees will grow back.
In truth, 90% of the world's standing volume of desirable and worthy to extract timber is likely contained on less than 10% of the world's timberland and the decimation of that 10% will be completed in just a few more years.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by TheDude » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 13:57:22
Cool, I like driving when the need arises anyway, and I bet collapsing ice shelves will make for totally boss TV. A1 scenario here we come!
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left
by kmann » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 14:46:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The US remains one of the world's largest petroleum producers at 6 billion barrels per day.
')The US remains one of the world's largest petroleum producers at 6 billion barrels per day.
If only.
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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4
by shortonsense » Mon 15 Feb 2010, 15:31:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.
')The 9 trillion number has been around awhile, all it requires is a little research and then some addition.
You have made two strategic political/social errors here and you lost any lingering audience you may have developed at PO.
Good thing I specialize in science and critical thinking then, let the political elite do as they wish in combination with social gladflys.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')By denigrating "climate types" you have cavalierly dismissed the vast majority of educated intelligent middle class readers who understand the threat of global climate change.
I denigrate no one by applying the stereotypical term "climate types" to the subset of fundamentally illogical and sometimes hysterical subgroup which populates this particular site. As has been amply demonstrated by their PO counterparts, these belief systems can leap education and social divisions in a single bound.
And you are off topic...this thread is about the 9 trillion barrel number, not your newest attempt at trolling.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You then lost the rest of the readers when you call on a IEA for support. The International Energy Association is a Paris-based EU organization that does not work for red or blue state America.
I called on the IEA for nothing. Dr Saleri noticed these same numbers years ago, the IEA is doing nothing more than straightening up their bookkeeping by noticing the obvious, regardless of the claims of the "only light sweet crude, onshore, at less than a depth of 2000'" matters gang. All evidence to the contrary of course.
)
