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PeakOil is You

THE Roubini Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 19:04:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's an article about what could happen: link
I always take what the goldbugs say with a grain of salt, but this guy makes some good points. He's the one who says late March/April things could happen.
I'm afraid most of that article went way over my head. 8O :oops: 8O
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 19:29:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I would not necessarily mark the $’s demise in 2009, where as can be seen above 89 years could grow longer, however 2010 could in fact provide an interesting test in this regard. We know this because despite the rue monetary authorities are attempting to portray right now that tightening is actually an option moving forward, it’s likely quantitative easing (QE) and monetizations will need to be stepped up next year as a result of all the spending this year, seeing the Obama Administration break all the records in this department.

So, those who are thinking 2010 will be a ‘good year’ should readjust their viewpoints in my opinion, and in fact really stretch those brain cells to include the concepts of bank runs, hyperinflation, and the $’s demise. This is because if equities turn lower at some point this coming year the test will be on – and QE / monetization practices will have to be ramped up again or wholesale Japanese style deflation will be the result.


That's the crux of his argument. Avoid deflation at all costs, no matter the long term damage caused. He posits March/April as when the fun begins, based on technical analysis/historical parallels.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 20:03:01

So should we get our money out of banks by then? (if we haven't already) 8O
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby gollum » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 20:44:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')hat would make a good poll - what would you do with a $5k check from the "Fed"? Buy weapons to protect yourself from same? Buy an 1/8 of a Chevy Volt? --snip--
I'd put 2500 into Russian 1891/30 bolt action rifles and ammo and $2500 into pre 1964 US coinage
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby timmac » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 01:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the population of California is somehow sustainable? we're not as far from Haiti as many would like to think just look at the condition of our cities.
I'd say we *are* that far from Haiti.
Say that to the people of Detroit.. link
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby oowolf » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 18:32:36

For those of us who are financial ignoramuses, but otherwise fairly intelligent, Stoneleigh and Ilargi over at the automatic earth blog do a pretty good job of translating Financialese into plain english.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby Roy » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 09:50:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat would make a good poll - what would you do with a $5k check from the "Fed"?


****Current Wish List****

Stainless hand water pump for deep wells, plus pipe and install hardware: ~$2k
48" PTO Rototiller for my small Yanmar diesel tractor '-- $1500
Portable diesel generator -- ~$1400.

Saving up but am having a hard time deciding what order to purchase these items.

Can't buy them all at once. Wife thinks generator best short term purchase, if disruptions in the near future are minor; she thinks the probability of minor disruptions is higher than major (I agree with that) at least in the short term view. The generator can keep my freezer running and run my well pump in a short term crisis -- not a total collapse.

I think water pump setup is the most important... Maslow's Hierarchy and all. But, if there are no major disruptions in the next two years, then all I have is a fancy item I don't use sitting on a shelf in my basement.

OTOH, the PTO tiller would be nice because I could greatly expand my personal food production on short notice if something changed WRT food prices or availability (which is also possible in the near future).

I've been wrestling with this for the last 6 months. Weighing probabilities and trying to gauge the likelihood of different possible (even likely) events that could impair my ability to obtain water and food with current means. All three items on my wish list are useful to varying degrees in different scenarios.

Decisions, decisions...

If they give me a $5k stimulus check then my current problem will be solved.

Sorry for going off-topic... Mods please delete this post if it is too far out in left field.

:)
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby Revi » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 12:14:12

Let's assume that the Goldbugs are right and there is something that will happen in the next few months.

What are we going to do?

I really don't know, but it seems like it's a possibility.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 22:00:03

Bernanke might get the boot, in what seems like a wave of faux populist indignation by the likes of O-blah-ma, and other pols anxious not to end up on the wrong side of a pitch fork. Do you think that his replacement, would raise interest rates, risking yet another round of potential pitchforks?

Get ready for the mother of all dollar devaluations if Bernanke is trundled off to Neverland, another Lost Boy of high finance.
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Re: Nouriel Roubini---Risky rich

Unread postby Homesteader » Sat 23 Jan 2010, 02:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')et's assume that the Goldbugs are right and there is something that will happen in the next few months.

What are we going to do?

I really don't know, but it seems like it's a possibility.


Get out of USDs.

I'm quite happy I don't get paid in USDs. My total USD holdings are about $1500.
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