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THE Roubini Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 17:03:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'D')o you really understand implications of owning of .ltd or .plc company?

EU, I know what a Ltd company is; what is a .plc, please?
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby skeptik » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 17:09:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut in march Forbes had his personal wealth at "only" 45 billion?

This is my source - sorry should have pasted it. This references back to a Financial Times article, but no link is given. link
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 17:21:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'D')o you really understand implications of owning of .ltd or .plc company?
EU, I know what a Ltd company is; what is a .plc, please?

Public limited company. In UK at least. :)

Means that you can buy and sell its stocks on stock exchange. link
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 17:55:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')Given that many of your "richest" folks own companies with huge liabilities, as the system crashes, they would effectively turn into the world's biggest debtors.
Do you really understand implications of owning of .ltd or .plc company? I suspect, you don't.

The limited liability corporation ultimately renders all your cockroach and prostitution schemes unworkable, so I can't see why you would be in favor of this. While you can hold J6P accountable for spending too much money on beer and living beyond his means on debt, you can't hold the officers of AIG accountable for their debts and money they spent on manicures?

The LLC is the epitome of moral hazard, as long as its profitable you can sieve money off it, as soon as its bankrupt and in debt, nobody is accountable! Magic! If you want to imprison debtors, theory here is that because there is a legal entity between the debtors and the debt, you can't imprison anyone because you can't imprison a faceless corporation.

Anyhow, if money is owed and cannot pay it back, SOMEBODY borrowed it and used it up. Along with all the other laws currently being pitched out the window, any revolution would immediately recind all laws regarding limited liability of corporations and hold the folks who made the profits accountable for the losses as well. As you said a while back, having sufficient punishment would be a good motivator to keep people from being so foolish with their money in the future.

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 18:11:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')Given that many of your "richest" folks own companies with huge liabilities, as the system crashes, they would effectively turn into the world's biggest debtors.
Do you really understand implications of owning of .ltd or .plc company? I suspect, you don't.

Corporations limit liability. The owner's private assets, in the event of bankruptcy, aren't considered a retrievable asset.

However, the very wealthy put a good chunk of their wealth into both real estate and hedge funds. So they too, if they are greedy, carrying too much leverage, or seeking hedge funds with the highest yields, can take a shellacking. So the nouveaux riche are going to lose a lot of purchasing power, and perhaps their jobs. Noone is completely insulated, except perhaps old money, which is usually ultra conservative.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 18:27:28

Thank you, EU. :)
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 03:27:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')he limited liability corporation ultimately renders all your cockroach and prostitution schemes unworkable, so I can't see why you would be in favor of this. While you can hold J6P accountable for spending too much money on beer and living beyond his means on debt, you can't hold the officers of AIG accountable for their debts and money they spent on manicures?

No, not at all. Countless managers including those of highest ranks could be charged with fraud, false inducement, dereliction of duty, criminal negligence etc.

So there would be plenty opportunities to send them where they belong (brothels or uranium mines) and give them opportunity to make overdue contributions to society.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 04:17:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')he limited liability corporation ultimately renders all your cockroach and prostitution schemes unworkable, so I can't see why you would be in favor of this. While you can hold J6P accountable for spending too much money on beer and living beyond his means on debt, you can't hold the officers of AIG accountable for their debts and money they spent on manicures?
No, not at all. Countless managers including those of highest ranks could be charged with fraud, false inducement, dereliction of duty, criminal negligence etc.
So there would be plenty opportunities to send them where they belong (brothels or uranium mines) and give them opportunity to make overdue contributions to society.

Agreed of course, which makes one wonder just why it was you questioned my understanding of an LLC to begin with? You ALSO agree that the corporate apparatchiks should share in the Cockroach Feast.

In determining who should eat the MOST cockroaches, is it J6P, or is it Henry Paulson? Who is most at fault here for this mess, is it your average working slob, or is it the Ubermeisters who sucked the wealth out of the world and dropped us ALL into a deeper debt hole than any normal person could even CONCEIVE of digging? Who LOST most of the money here EU? It was NOT J6P. It was the outrageously wealthy who GAMBLED it all away in the CDS market, and so who here should Pay the Price for these transgressions in the greatest measure? Who REALLY deserves to eat the most Cockroaches EU?

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 13:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')he problem you run into here is with your pricing structure and who if anyone will buy said prostitute's favors if as a whole the society is broke and people are more worried about EATING than they are about F*CKING. LOL. Also, why bother paying when rape is the more direct method?

I think, you are excessively pessimistic here.
You are assuming exceedingly fast collapse.
I think, it is unlikely unless we end up with atomic war etc.

I expect some sort of involuntary powerdown with fast collapse of various hubristic societal structures. I think, there will be some last ditch attempt to descend to sustainability in partially controlled fashion at least. Some draconian laws are going to be implemented (and ruthless coercing of debtors to stick to their contractual obligations by any means actually is an example of such draconian law).

Some better cultural traits of WASP peoples (hard work, prudence, personal responsibility and ethos of fulfillment of contracts) are going to be brought back to life and with some luck it is possible to evade Greater Somalia scenario where it is simpler to rape than pay a whore.

So even if my scenario is also a hard landing, I am a bit more optimistic than you are.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho determines what a day's wage is or an hour flatbacking? The "market"? LOL. You owe $1000 of the old money, but today I only pay you a penny a day for your work since that is all its worth, if that since actually in an overshoot stutation people are liabilities rather than assets. I am owner, I set the wage. So here it would take you 100000 days to pay off your $1000 debt, around 300 years? LOL.

Well, again if all what a whore or whoever can get is penny a day then she will die within a week or two regardless.
It is pointless to discuss such scenario any further.

However I think it will turn a bit better than that.
I suggested current Third World standards of average whore remuneration ($5-10/15min go and $100 for a beauty queen on local market is a reasonable guess) and I think that there is no reason why it cannot be kept in collapsing US at least for a decade or two.
In any circumstances she would be allowed to negotiate her value with customers on case to case basis and brothel would only charge small standard fee per go.

In any case basic market rules are working well in collapsing systems and I had personal opportunity to observe it in Poland.
Actually black market/shadow economy is truly free market.

NB. Inflation/deflation related issues can easily be resolved.
If your debt was worth this and that much of loafs of bread in old currency, you will have to generate equivalent of the same in new currency.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I just cannot IMAGINE who might buy Henry Paulosn though. Bleccchhh. LOL.

Yep.
He would be a truly lost case.
And many taxpayers would pay whatever it takes to have a go at him. :)
There would be queues to him round the clock. :-D
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby drgoodword » Thu 20 Nov 2008, 01:10:25

Citigroup shutters one of its hedge funds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Citi is shutting down a corporate credit hedge fund called Corporate Special Opportunities after it slumped more than 50% in October.

"As with many other credit-based investment products, investment returns have been hurt by one of the most volatile periods for fixed income in history," a Citigroup spokesman said in a statement Wednesday.

In February, Citi suspended investor redemptions from the fund, which once had more than $4 billion in assets.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Minvaren » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 00:15:23

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby carbniky » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 01:05:00

It will be faster than anyone ever expected. Everyone will know when it happens and almost all will die of starvation and cold within months, . Winter without heat will be ugly.

Then the final nukes.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 01:07:28

"It's a fine line between managers acting to preserve the value of portfolios for investors and acting to protect their own interests," said Christopher Addy, chief executive of Castle Hall Alternatives, which advises investors on the operational risks of hedge funds. "It's a very difficult situation and I don't think there's a right or wrong answer."

Hedge funds have been hammered this year by the mortgage-fueled credit crisis, which has triggered a rush for cash across global financial markets. The average fund has lost a record 16% so far this year and investors withdrew $40 billion in October leaving industry assets at $1.56 trillion, according to Hedge Fund Research.

<b>Between $650 billion and $700 billion may be withdrawn from hedge funds by the end of this year</b>, Empirical Research Partners estimated this week.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 01:28:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', 'N')otice he says "in coming days", not in the coming weeks or months.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]''Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,'' Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. ''We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and ''don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,'' he said.[...]

It's been about a month-and-a-quarter since the prediction. Still waiting for that market shutdown. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 01:50:42

"Coming days" is a colloquialism. Means "in the future", not intended as literally days. He was talking about the 4th quarter and the anticipated hedge fund redemptions.

This is truely it. You can't pull a trillion out of the market to pay redemptions without it slamming the markets and causing a crisis.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 02:08:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('carbniky', 'I')t will be faster than anyone ever expected. Everyone will know when it happens and almost all will die of starvation and cold within months, . Winter without heat will be ugly. Then the final nukes.

Image
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby carbniky » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 02:11:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', 'N')otice he says "in coming days", not in the coming weeks or months.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]''Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,'' Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. ''We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and ''don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,'' he said.[...]
It's been about a month-and-a-quarter since the prediction. Still waiting for that market shutdown. :)

Well, I think the government promised 6 trillion bailout so it won't shut down. that is logical.

Still doesn't mean they are in good shape.

Also will now definitely cause inflationary pressure.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 02:16:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')t's been about a month-and-a-quarter since the prediction. Still waiting for that market shutdown.

As each prediction made on this forum of certain, imminent, total cataclysm fails to come to pass, fades away, and is forgotten, we're left to ponder whether or not there's any real justification at all for our doomerish tendencies.

Our track record is starting to get pretty bad, folks. We're starting to look like the Chicken Littles so many have likened us to.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 02:33:08

Bull Crap! The markets, the environment, geopolitical relations have steadily degenerated over the last couple years. Because we haven't experienced total armageddon yet, doesn't mean we aren't hurting and moving ever closer.

As to the 6 trillion in guarantees, let's see them try to raise it. Do you think the rest of the world is going to fund this?

There is no salvation.

Actually it was all that "recovery in the 2nd quarter" then "recovery in the 3rd quarter" and "no recession," that has proved to be false.

Until all those worthless assets are written off and those who are bankrupt, purged, there will be no recovery.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 04:05:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UltraViciousBudgie', 'C')losing the markets would be like closing a dam's floodgates during a flood.
Eggsaktly. Or in the case of market circuit breakers, closing a few floodgates. If it's going down to the ~1000-5000 range stretching that out over a few days won't change much. That said, if someone like MrBill is betting the S&P 500 has seen it's bottom I'm not one to bet against him.
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