[threadbear]

I like Roubini. The mainstream consider him an uber doomer. Compared to many of the posters here, he's a pussycat, the very essence of restraint.

--He makes some interesting points in this article, describing how things should play out if the republicans gain seats in the congressional elections. I think they're held in November.

ROUBINI:

"If America’s Democrats lose in the mid-term elections this November, there is a risk of persistent fiscal deficits as Republicans veto tax increases while Democrats veto spending cuts. Monetizing the fiscal deficits would then become the path of least resistance: running the printing presses is much easier than politically painful deficit reduction.

But if the US does use the inflation tax as a way to reduce the real value of its public debt, the risk of a disorderly collapse of the US dollar would rise significantly. America’s foreign creditors would not accept a sharp reduction in their dollar assets’ real value that debasement of the dollar via inflation and devaluation would entail. A disorderly rush to the exit could lead to a dollar collapse, a spike in long-term interest rates, and a severe double dip recession.

http://www.project-syndicate.org//commentary/roubini21

[AirlinePilot]

thread,

I don't think it matters, we passed the event horizon sometime last year. No matter what happens now none of the paths are good.

US Debt default

Dollar collapse

Hyperinflation

Deflationary spiral

Its going to be one of or a combination of these econmic events which go down resulting in a depression which makes GD1 look like a picnic. I think its a question of short term "take our medicine like a man" crisis followed by a few years of rebuilding, or we slow crash for another twenty years. I really don't know which it is going to be right now and its hard to put a finger on what one should do in the near term.

[Novus]

Slipping into a second great depression of which we are already half way there with 20% real unemployment is part of what I would consider a slow crash scenario. Say in two or three we do reach great depression levels of poverty but then where do we go. I don't ever see it getting better. That is what the long emergency of peak oil is all about. Shrinking horizons and permanent contraction unless the weight of it all breaks us into a fast crash. The fast crash will look something like Haiti or worse and much like Haiti it could be triggered by an earth quake or other natural disaster say the "big one" in California. How will the bankrupt state, local, and federal governments be able to deal with LA being flattened? The answer is they won't be able to deal with it. It will be reduced to stone age hell on earth living conditions forever.

[gollum]

And the population of California is somehow sustainable? we're not as far from Haiti as many would like to think just look at the condition of our cities.

[hope_full]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the population of California is somehow sustainable? we're not as far from Haiti as many would like to think just look at the condition of our cities.

[gollum]

Yes there are some people preparing, but the majority sit and watch American Idol, I think New Orleans is an indicator of how things will go in a good part of our country.

[TreeFarmer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the population of California is somehow sustainable? we're not as far from Haiti as many would like to think just look at the condition of our cities.

[gollum]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the population of California is somehow sustainable? we're not as far from Haiti as many would like to think just look at the condition of our cities.

[sittinguy]

Firearms do no good if you have nothing to protect. Unless you plan on useing them to attack and take what you need. I do have a few freinds that think being prepared means just being armed, like they will be able to hunt for food. I personally don't think that will work. OK so you have killed an animal, you go your meat. Hopefully you have freezer to keep it in.

My firearms are for defense of what I have and my family protection.

And in the case of trading silver or gold for goods.. I don't need anything. But I will gladly take your gold for trade. And when the smoke clears I will be sitting on my metals, waiting to trade them in for whatever currency is there.

jJust seeing the words Disorderly Collapse, give me a little doomer wood.

I just got some Moutian house food the other day, it said, best if used by 2034.

It won't be like Haiti ay my house.

[gollum]

I have friends who say they will hunt, when things get rough. I suspect this is a bad plan. During the depression game was wiped out for a generation in some areas. Not to say I wouldn't give hunting a shot but I sure wouldn't base my plan for survival around it. Mostly my guns are for defence, then hunting, then as an investment, and finally to loan to friends and neighbors if the need ever arises. They are not, ever, for the taking of property that is not rightfully mine.

[efarmer]

Obama coming in to put the international fresh face back on America so the paper
could be sold to pay for the corporate bailout of his disgraced and unsellable predecessor
is becoming more and more likely in my mind as being close to the truth. In that light,
Obama has accomplished his main mission and is not required any longer. This means
that the optimum corporate payoff in the dismantling of America can switch back to
people who have blind faith in lowering taxes, increasing borrowing, and seeing what
the military can go out and win for multinational business.

Do you want the feel good, folksy, Blue dismantler, or do you prefer the lock step,
wish Ronnie was back, New York Minute quick dismantler?

We are watching Red Punch and Blue Judy battle on the left and right arms of the
same corporate puppeteer, and rooting for our favorite arm to win.

Don't want to be dismantled? We are sorry, that is not a menu option at this time.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '
')
We are watching Red Punch and Blue Judy battle on the left and right arms of the
same corporate puppeteer, and rooting for our favorite arm to win.

Don't want to be dismantled? We are sorry, that is not a menu option at this time.

[efarmer]

We are conditioned for a Knight in Shining Armor, The Comeback Kid, The Hail Mary Pass that wins the Game, The Silver Bullet, The Inside Scoop, to belch up out of the chaotic meanderings of a system that was for sale and has been bought, and to provide ease of mind for us as the zeigeist dictates delivery schedules.

We are going to have to be our own heroes or else we are not going to get any.
And it is going to be hard and rotten and humbling and indeterminate every step
of the way and we should be of good cheer and stop taking the bait to pounce on
each other for the amusement of the corporate pimps in New York and Washington
who do the bidding of the multinational madames and who see us as aging out of
the prime mating demographic that powers their various enterprises, with the exception
of offering the estate mulching, million dollar, ICU death to those who can pay the fare.

Beans and rice rather than guns, shovels and plows rather than schemes and sects,
because once they are convinced we are really broke and groveling, they will move off to
parasite the BRIC people, if they can buy their government and get in the game.

edited twice to smite typos

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 't')hread,

I don't think it matters, we passed the event horizon sometime last year. No matter what happens now none of the paths are good.

US Debt default

Dollar collapse

Hyperinflation

Deflationary spiral

Its going to be one of or a combination of these econmic events which go down resulting in a depression which makes GD1 look like a picnic. I think its a question of short term "take our medicine like a man" crisis followed by a few years of rebuilding, or we slow crash for another twenty years. I really don't know which it is going to be right now and its hard to put a finger on what one should do in the near term.

[gollum]

The minute it becomes impossible to hide that the world has gut the line on our master card, game over. I'm guessing from some of the below the radar stuff going on between us and China we're pretty close (within 18 months).

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')I think things might unravel even before the mid-term elections. Some are thinking late March, early April.

[sittinguy]

Efarmer your post sounds like someone who just smoked a fat blunt. Hopefully it was a peach.

[efarmer]

Blunt conclusions and coffee is my drug.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'B')lunt conclusions and coffee is my drug.

[Revi]

Here's an article about what could happen:

http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1263884880.php

I always take what the goldbugs say with a grain of salt, but this guy makes some good points.

He's the one who says late March/April things could happen.