by cipi604 » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 01:49:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I wonder if any of the more mathematicaly inclined can do a guesstimate on how quickly we could burn up natural gas reserves when the Fischer- Tropsch method gets into full swing?
Much like dragracers of old who knew the key to speed....."Speed costs money...how fast would you like to go?", the answer is similar for GLT.
10 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas = 1 Billion barrels of synthetic crude.
How much gas do you have, and how many more billions of barrels of liquid fuels would you like?
And how much is it worth to you?
Conventional natural gas reserves on the planet stand at perhaps 6,000 TCF? The world uses some 100 TCF/Year? Rough figures, I haven't checked the most current, but they'll do for now.
So we're sitting on a fair stockpile.
Lets put aside a decent 30 years supply, just to be on the safe side, leaving us with 3,000 TCF. Thats the equivalent of 3000/10 = 300 Billion barrels of synthetic crude, 10 years supply at current rates of consumption.
This number is so heavily conservative as to be laughable of course. It excludes anything new in Russia, the Arctic, the Middle East or anywhere else really. This is ludicrous on its face, people are discovering natural gas and without a ready market moving right along to other things, just add that discovery to the tally and move on. It excludes the unconventionals being prototyped in the US and available elsewhere, all CBM everywhere, all of the onshore and offshore hydrates of the world, changes in existing field sizes, and so on and so forth.
If I recall some of the estimates of global unconventionals, its like 32,000 TCF.
http://www.rpsea.org/en/art/210/So we put 1/2 of that aside for natural gas use, and we convert the other 16,000 TCF into liquids, and it gives us a decent 1.6 trillion barrels of liquids.
These peakers.....what the heck where they thinking when they invented this stuff?!

How does that affect the peak in oil production? Does it offset the decline? it doesn't... and no.