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LNG pt. 1 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby copious.abundance » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 00:09:34

You are correct. I was going for a more well-known acronym in the title. Perhaps I shouldn't have.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby SeaGypsy » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 00:30:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'H')ere she is. 8)

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/bu ... etfuel.cnn


Your choice of headline is misleading, this craft is flying on GTL, not LNG. That is, Methane that has been chemically recombined into a light hydrocarbon liquid fuel. This is basically the Fischer-Tropisch process using Methane as the feedstock, NOT cryogenically cooled and pressurized Liquefied Natural Gas.


Just did some reading on these guys. According to the wiki article (Fischer- Tropsch) the process produces 7 tonnes of CO2 per ton of liquid fuel produced BEFORE the fuel itself is burned. That means up to ten tonnes of carbon per ton of jet fuel. Just in case anyone was considering global warming?
It looks like there is no holding back our carbonisation of the apmosphere; the test is going ahead to see whether this will cause massive sea level rise; dead acidified oceans etc etc.
I wonder if any of the more mathematicaly inclined can do a guesstimate on how quickly we could burn up natural gas reserves when the Fischer- Tropsch method gets into full swing?
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 01:03:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I wonder if any of the more mathematicaly inclined can do a guesstimate on how quickly we could burn up natural gas reserves when the Fischer- Tropsch method gets into full swing?


Much like dragracers of old who knew the key to speed....."Speed costs money...how fast would you like to go?", the answer is similar for GLT.

10 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas = 1 Billion barrels of synthetic crude.

How much gas do you have, and how many more billions of barrels of liquid fuels would you like?

And how much is it worth to you?

Conventional natural gas reserves on the planet stand at perhaps 6,000 TCF? The world uses some 100 TCF/Year? Rough figures, I haven't checked the most current, but they'll do for now.

So we're sitting on a fair stockpile.

Lets put aside a decent 30 years supply, just to be on the safe side, leaving us with 3,000 TCF. Thats the equivalent of 3000/10 = 300 Billion barrels of synthetic crude, 10 years supply at current rates of consumption.

This number is so heavily conservative as to be laughable of course. It excludes anything new in Russia, the Arctic, the Middle East or anywhere else really. This is ludicrous on its face, people are discovering natural gas and without a ready market moving right along to other things, just add that discovery to the tally and move on. It excludes the unconventionals being prototyped in the US and available elsewhere, all CBM everywhere, all of the onshore and offshore hydrates of the world, changes in existing field sizes, and so on and so forth.

If I recall some of the estimates of global unconventionals, its like 32,000 TCF.

http://www.rpsea.org/en/art/210/

So we put 1/2 of that aside for natural gas use, and we convert the other 16,000 TCF into liquids, and it gives us a decent 1.6 trillion barrels of liquids.

These peakers.....what the heck where they thinking when they invented this stuff?! :-D :-D
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby cipi604 » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 01:49:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I wonder if any of the more mathematicaly inclined can do a guesstimate on how quickly we could burn up natural gas reserves when the Fischer- Tropsch method gets into full swing?


Much like dragracers of old who knew the key to speed....."Speed costs money...how fast would you like to go?", the answer is similar for GLT.

10 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas = 1 Billion barrels of synthetic crude.

How much gas do you have, and how many more billions of barrels of liquid fuels would you like?

And how much is it worth to you?

Conventional natural gas reserves on the planet stand at perhaps 6,000 TCF? The world uses some 100 TCF/Year? Rough figures, I haven't checked the most current, but they'll do for now.

So we're sitting on a fair stockpile.

Lets put aside a decent 30 years supply, just to be on the safe side, leaving us with 3,000 TCF. Thats the equivalent of 3000/10 = 300 Billion barrels of synthetic crude, 10 years supply at current rates of consumption.

This number is so heavily conservative as to be laughable of course. It excludes anything new in Russia, the Arctic, the Middle East or anywhere else really. This is ludicrous on its face, people are discovering natural gas and without a ready market moving right along to other things, just add that discovery to the tally and move on. It excludes the unconventionals being prototyped in the US and available elsewhere, all CBM everywhere, all of the onshore and offshore hydrates of the world, changes in existing field sizes, and so on and so forth.

If I recall some of the estimates of global unconventionals, its like 32,000 TCF.

http://www.rpsea.org/en/art/210/

So we put 1/2 of that aside for natural gas use, and we convert the other 16,000 TCF into liquids, and it gives us a decent 1.6 trillion barrels of liquids.

These peakers.....what the heck where they thinking when they invented this stuff?! :-D :-D


How does that affect the peak in oil production? Does it offset the decline? it doesn't... and no.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby Tyler_JC » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 02:02:45

Of course it helps offset the decline.

The world needs liquid transport fuel, GTL can help provide some of that fuel. Even the Hirsch report noted that GTL can mitigate some of the effects of peak oil.

One big concern with Peak Oil is the "jet problem."

Before this article, I'd never seen any realistic plan for replacing jet fuel with an alternative.

We now appear to have found one. Let's see if other airlines jump on the GTL bandwagon in order to determine the viability of this alternative jet fuel.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby Gerben » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 04:48:52

GtL doesn't make sense from an energetic perspective, but it does economically. I use diesel fuel with GtL blended in occasionally in my car and it runs great on it. Shell sells it in the Netherlands as a premium fuel. GtL is only economical if you have a large source of 'stranded gas' where there are high cost to transport it to consumers. That stranded gas however can also be converted to LNG. If the price of oil continues to be high, international natural gas prices will recover. CNG and LNG are growing alternatives for oil products.
At higher NG prices GtL will no longer be an economic alternative because it takes too much NG to produce a given amount of fuel. But recovery of natural gas and LNG prices takes a while. For now Shell made the right choice.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby isgota » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 10:42:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')
Just did some reading on these guys. According to the wiki article (Fischer- Tropsch) the process produces 7 tonnes of CO2 per ton of liquid fuel produced BEFORE the fuel itself is burned. That means up to ten tonnes of carbon per ton of jet fuel. Just in case anyone was considering global warming?
It looks like there is no holding back our carbonisation of the apmosphere; the test is going ahead to see whether this will cause massive sea level rise; dead acidified oceans etc etc.
I wonder if any of the more mathematicaly inclined can do a guesstimate on how quickly we could burn up natural gas reserves when the Fischer- Tropsch method gets into full swing?


That number comes from coal-based FT fuel. The quantity of CO2 depends on the primary source that you're converting into syntetic fuel, there are 3 types:

1) Coal-to-liquids was the first to be developed and it is the dirtiest.
2) Gas-to-liquids (GTL) is the cheapest of all (thanks to that, many proyects are this type). It's CO2 lifecycle emisions are about the same that oil based fuels.
3) Biomass-to-liquids (BTL) is almost CO2 free but is more expensive and is less developed than GTL.

Best.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 11:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')These peakers.....what the heck where they thinking when they invented this stuff?! :-D :-D


How does that affect the peak in oil production? Does it offset the decline? it doesn't... and no.


Maybe its already affected peak production? Maybe peak really was supposed to be 20 years ago like Campbell said, but all the things he excluded, heavy oil and unconventionals, NGL's, things under water! ( Lions and Tigers and Bears! Oh My! ) maybe all of those have been coming on line continuously and presto....peak has already moved by nearly 20 years?

How else does anyone explain the 9% field decline nonsense without a new Saudi Arabia popping up every 1.1 years since the current plateau started? Why aren't those new Saudi Arabia's joining OPEC? With all this oil being found, the wholesale conversion of GTL's isn't necessary. Maybe when it is, just like when those heavy oils, projects in water and unconventionals in oil, they'll come piling on in.

Certainly peak oil happening and causing prices to DECREASE isn't much incentive for GTL's is it?
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 12:06:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'G')tL doesn't make sense from an energetic perspective, but it does economically.


Bingo. And thus the fallacy of EROEI is revealed yet again. The price differential drives the process economically and has nothing to do with EROEI. You are going to break peaker hearts everywhere by noticing this obviously and completely correct fact. Beware, some may call you names! :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '
')At higher NG prices GtL will no longer be an economic alternative because it takes too much NG to produce a given amount of fuel. But recovery of natural gas and LNG prices takes a while. For now Shell made the right choice.


Stranded natural gas has a tough time being worth much. Which is why these type's of processes work so well, when natural gas has effectively zero value ( stranded ), you build a plant and presto! Sell the $80/bbl byproduct. Qatar certainly is interested in proving that point, to the horror of EROEI fanatics worldwide!
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby Gerben » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 12:46:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '.').. GTL (gas to liquid, not GLT) is not new. No modern industrial society (much less an Amish farmstead) has ever run on this stuff. Nazi Germany and Apartheid South Africa had great hopes for Fischer- Tropsch but those social experiments went down in flames.

Those factories in South Africa are still running and profitable.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby isgota » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 13:28:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '.').. GTL (gas to liquid, not GLT) is not new. No modern industrial society (much less an Amish farmstead) has ever run on this stuff. Nazi Germany and Apartheid South Africa had great hopes for Fischer- Tropsch but those social experiments went down in flames.

Those factories in South Africa are still running and profitable.
Profitable to whom? South Africa is a failed state.


Yeah... A failed state that is member of the G-20 and going to host the soccer World Cup next year... For sure...

By the way, without the sythetic fuel provided by Sasol Apartheid South Africa could have ended very well with the fuel crises of Cuba or North Korea when they had an OPEC embargo in the 70's-80's.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby isgota » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 13:53:16

1998-2000? A bit outdated, don't you think?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CIA Factbook', 'S')outh Africa is a middle-income, emerging market with an abundant supply of natural resources; well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors; a stock exchange that is 17th largest in the world; and modern infrastructure supporting an efficient distribution of goods to major urban centers throughout the region. Growth was robust from 2004 to 2008 as South Africa reaped the benefits of macroeconomic stability and a global commodities boom, but began to slow in the second half of 2008 due to the global financial crisis' impact on commodity prices and demand. However, unemployment remains high and outdated infrastructure has constrained growth. At the end of 2007, South Africa began to experience an electricity crisis because state power supplier Eskom suffered supply problems with aged plants, necessitating "load-shedding" cuts to residents and businesses in the major cities. Daunting economic problems remain from the apartheid era - especially poverty, lack of economic empowerment among the disadvantaged groups, and a shortage of public transportation. South African economic policy is fiscally conservative but pragmatic, focusing on controlling inflation, maintaining a budget surplus, and using state-owned enterprises to deliver basic services to low-income areas as a means to increase job growth and household income.


They still have serious problems, but calling them "failed state" it's a bit too much.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 15:06:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Please, show us an energy-positive profitable program.


It isn't required, so wave your strawman at someone else.
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Re: First airplane flight using LNG

Postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 15:09:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '.').. GTL (gas to liquid, not GLT) is not new. No modern industrial society (much less an Amish farmstead) has ever run on this stuff. Nazi Germany and Apartheid South Africa had great hopes for Fischer- Tropsch but those social experiments went down in flames.

Those factories in South Africa are still running and profitable.


And now the results of the process are powering airliners. Who said that natural gas can't do whatever crude can do, only better!
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