[mos6507]

shortonsense, I'd really like to get to the heart of what your prescription is for peak oil mitigation (if any).

I think a big reason why peakers exaggerate the doomerism is because of the frog in the pot syndrome. Psychologically, we (doomers included) NEED to feel doom is imminent in order to avoid Jevon's paradox and get off our asses. So whether we truly believe, at an intellectual level, doom is imminent, we have to kind of trick ourselves into thinking that way to do the kinds of long-term prep work that it will take to in any way be ready for when it really does arrive.

So it's kind of like a cutter who has to keep hacking at his arm in order to feel something because they are so desensitized. The luxury, comfort, ease of BAU is just really hard to resist. I don't think when all is said and done, that doomers are so mentally superior to sheeple. We're all as vulnerable as anybody else. Just like Cypher in The Matrix.

I find myself largely living mentally in the future. I can visualize myself pushing the shopping cart with my daughter next to me like The Road. As far away as such a future may seem, I feel I need to keep that image firmly affixed in my mind to keep me from falling too far back into complacency. It might be like an alcoholic who visualizes what it would be like to see his addiction lead to liver failure or killing a pedestrian in a drunk driving incident. Once your lifestyle hits rock bottom like that it's pretty much too late to do anything about it.

So I think the insta-doom stuff serves a purpose. But we should still keep some grounding in the present reality. Peak oil doom arriving in 2020 or 2030 should not be an excuse to wait until 12/31/2019 to start mitigating.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ntellectually pissweak article about brand popularity. The truth has ups and downs in the polls but remains the truth. Moss has been trying to disconnect current market reality and the bank colapse from P.O. for quite a while. Maybe TOD has been listening? Anyway a lot of us here think that's crap and there is a direct and obvious link between peak oil, peak pricing, peak growth and peak debt. If TOD want to pussy fart around after being screwed over by a bunch of PC jerks, it's just another Greenpeace kind of hippy revenue raising to support wilderness warriors kind of thing. If that's what they think the value of peak oil is they can rack off and let the adults continue the discussion.

[hardtootell-2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')
Cantarell has dropped to 500,000 bpd. That's a loss of
2 MMBD in 4 years.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 's')hortonsense, I'd really like to get to the heart of what your prescription is for peak oil mitigation (if any).

I think a big reason why peakers exaggerate the doomerism is because of the frog in the pot syndrome. Psychologically, we (doomers included) NEED to feel doom is imminent in order to avoid Jevon's paradox and get off our asses. So whether we truly believe, at an intellectual level, doom is imminent, we have to kind of trick ourselves into thinking that way to do the kinds of long-term prep work that it will take to in any way be ready for when it really does arrive.

So it's kind of like a cutter who has to keep hacking at his arm in order to feel something because they are so desensitized. The luxury, comfort, ease of BAU is just really hard to resist. I don't think when all is said and done, that doomers are so mentally superior to sheeple. We're all as vulnerable as anybody else. Just like Cypher in The Matrix.

I find myself largely living mentally in the future. I can visualize myself pushing the shopping cart with my daughter next to me like The Road. As far away as such a future may seem, I feel I need to keep that image firmly affixed in my mind to keep me from falling too far back into complacency. It might be like an alcoholic who visualizes what it would be like to see his addiction lead to liver failure or killing a pedestrian in a drunk driving incident. Once your lifestyle hits rock bottom like that it's pretty much too late to do anything about it.

So I think the insta-doom stuff serves a purpose. But we should still keep some grounding in the present reality. Peak oil doom arriving in 2020 or 2030 should not be an excuse to wait until 12/31/2019 to start mitigating.

[efarmer]

MY forum and personal worlds are merging. It is getting scary,
I went to a wedding of my kid's friends and mostly their peer group.
I know they really said the normal lines, but I heard:

"I, Jack, take you Jill, to be my wife, to have and to hold from this day forward, to bounce along with on the bumpy plateau like couple of cockroaches on a trampoline, in sickness and unknown states, until the SHTF and one of us is snuffed, or goes Zombie and hoses the deal entirely.

But then, the ceremony ended, there was draft beer and mostacolli
in big steaming buckets, there was women my age showing cleavage
who wanted to dance, there was little kids dancing with their aunts and
uncles and grandmas, there was the electric slide, the chicken dance,
the world works. Us older farts, we realized, Hey! We are all dressed up
and it ain't a freakin' funeral! Life is good. Life is short. Life is what it is.

P.S.
Excuse me, I lost control of my browser and it flapped around and
beat the devil out of my doomer. I will get things under control and
be back in a few days.
efarmer

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'M')Y forum and personal worlds are merging. It is getting scary,
I went to a wedding of my kid's friends and mostly their peer group.
I know they really said the normal lines, but I heard:

"I, Jack, take you Jill, to be my wife, to have and to hold from this day forward, to bounce along with on the bumpy plateau like couple of cockroaches on a trampoline, in sickness and unknown states, until the SHTF and one of us is snuffed, or goes Zombie and hoses the deal entirely.

But then, the ceremony ended, there was draft beer and mostacolli
in big steaming buckets, there was women my age showing cleavage
who wanted to dance, there was little kids dancing with their aunts and
uncles and grandmas, there was the electric slide, the chicken dance,
the world works. Us older farts, we realized, Hey! We are all dressed up
and it ain't a freakin' funeral! Life is good. Life is short. Life is what it is.

P.S.
Excuse me, I lost control of my browser and it flapped around and
beat the devil out of my doomer. I will get things under control and
be back in a few days.
efarmer

[SeaGypsy]

Come on Pstarr shorty is the guru of denial around here, the voice of the silent majority; remember to show some respect!

[SeaGypsy]

Reading back a little. Shorty's attack on EROIE as being insignificant is absurd. There is not an iota of difference between, lookind at oil EROIE and looking at any other business. Gross minus costs equals profit. Can shorty really not see that or is he another plant?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')So world demand dropped from 82 Mbbl/d to 77 Mbbl/d due to the recession. What does that gain us, really? Saving 5 Mbbl/d and consuming 77 means we extend world oil supplies 15 days every year the recession lasts.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Not at all what I was trying to point out. What I am saying is the current demand destruction is insignificant over the course of a year because we will consume the amount we didn't use this year within the first 15 or 16 days of next year if nothing else changes. In terms of effecting peak oil the demand reduction is almost meaningless.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')his shit again. I really don't feel like repeating myself over and over again on this so another quick sum up.
Try and get the best grip you can on all the economic variables.
If it can make money the project goes ahead. I have never heard EROEI mentioned in a project planning meeting, quarterly budget review meeting or hell, even around the coffee pot for that matter.
I'll tell you what, if I ever hear someone mention it in the office, be it a junior engineer or the v.p. of exploration, I'll be sure to let you know here.
I'm not going to ever mention it first. Don't want to be laughed out of the room.

[jbrovont]

I'm sorry, but did you just say EROEI doesn't apply to oil production?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A') good refutation of that "oil is everywhere" article in the New York Times. The oilfinders of the world never seem to want to address the EROEI issue.

[Maddog78]

It may apply in theory if some theoretical scientist wants to try and figure it out for a certain field or project but in a real oil company office it is and has been an unknown, unmentioned and uncared about concept.
It's all about the money.

It may be that an uneconomic project also has a poor EROEI.
If you could figure out the EROEI accurately that is and I have my doubts about that.
It would not be the reason why it would not proceed however.
Repeat: It's all about the money.

[rangerone314]

Just so I understand this:

So is the gist of this argument basically whether or not EROI will eventually be reflected in Revenue minus Costs?

[Maddog78]

Hell, I don't know. LOL.

It started because pstarr insisted it must apply to everything energy related.
In theory he may be right but I came in on an old thread and said in 30 years in the oil and gas drilling business from a junior engineer to a now senior management postion I have never ever heard the term EROEI mentioned with respect to approving, continuing or halting a project.

Take that for what it is.

I lurked around The Oil Drum a bit too. They seem no more certain there about the concept.
How do you even come close to calculating it accurately for the conventional oil business?

Do you base it on the rig's lifecycle of being able to drill 1 well, 100 wells or 500 wells or more? How far back do you go? What about everything else that every other subcontractor supplies? How far back do you go? What about maintenance and repairs?
It is unknoweable for the modern oil industry and therefore of no value in making real world business decisions.

[mos6507]

Think about this: Bridge to nowhere.

History is littered with projects that have a negative ROI that got funded anyway. The chickens eventually come home to roost if these boondoggles last long enough.