[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')I know you don't believe that oil scarcity had anything to do with the recent price surge.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s readers here are aware, I don't remotely believe that Peak Oil caused the credit crisis, the seeds of which started a generation ago. Though the financial crisis was largely (but not totally) ignored within the peak oil community until after the fact, its onset was arguably the largest reason that peak oil is cemented in the past due to: lack of price signals bringing on new supply, highlighting the non-viability of low EROI (high cost) projects, and implied smaller differential between natural and observed decline on existing fields in production. However, oil depletion, irrespective of causal chain, will be now be a permanent constraint on global society from here forward.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow peak oil has always been a poor and inadequate terminology - one uses it because it is useful, because word’s are often poor and inadequate, but the reality was that oil was never a solo problem - sure, oil is nice and liquid, but given no other ecological problems, we could deal with an oil peak. The problem was always that our other resources are stretched too, and that whether we hit the actual peak or not, we live in a world where resource use is so tight that there’s little leeway for rapidly repurposing one major fuel source to cover the loss of another.

But saying that “peak oil’s day is over” (which may or may not be true) doesn’t really help us any more than saying that peak oil is going to crash civilization. Neither thing is accurate - instead, our collective crisis is upon us - we aren’t speculating about the future any more, we are talking about the present. Whichever aspect is most urgent at the moment isn’t really the issue. The issue is still, as it was two and three and five years ago - where do we go from here.

[Maddog78]

pstarr once again demonstrates a complete and utter lack of knowledge and understanding of the upstream oil and gas industry.

This is just like the other threads where it has come up so I'm done with it.
I've said my piece and most here get it, except one.

pstarr, keep believing what you want to believe even though it has no bearing whatsoever to the world of business and the people who do this for a living will carry on with what works for them.

[Maddog78]

Thanks for the new signature, Pops.
That about sums it up in nice plain spoken language as well as anyone could say it.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o be honest, I've always thought EROEI is a silly over complication of the simple fact that oil production isn't a charity and when a well goes in the red financially its shut down.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '
')I've said my piece and most here get it, except one.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'R')eading back a little. Shorty's attack on EROIE as being insignificant is absurd.

[jbrovont]

Economics *is* a science sos. Concisely, I think you just blew any credibility to talk about energy or economics. I don't know how to say this without sounding like a dick, but you need to understand what EROEI means before you can really argue about it. It's not a theory or a law, it's just a ratio of numbers - but a ratio upon which other laws are based (see thermodynamics). It just is.

If you run around gathering food and you use more energy than you eat, first you burn up carbohydrates. Then you burn up your fat. Then you canibalize muscle tissue, and finally you die.

If a system spends more energy than it earns, ultimately, it stops. That's it. That's the whole Energy Return on Energy Investment concept.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'I')'m sorry, but did you just say EROEI doesn't apply to oil production?

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')sk MadDog again, how many oil wells has he ever drilled based on projected EROEI. I dare you.

[Nefarious]

My personal opinion is that it would be almost impossible to determine the true eroei in the oil and gas industry. There are just to many variables that are always changing and to many unknowns to give an accurate assessment of eroei.
I do believe that by the time we get to a true negative eroei the world's economies would have been in ashes for a long while.
For the economics the cost's will never be so high that it will be unprofitable for oil companies not to drill.One simple reason is TA. You can drill a well test it and if it is not economical to produce you drop in a couple of plugs and a cap and temporarily abandon it. This is done all the time. Come back in 5 or 6 years and it is now profitable and your well is already drilled,just have to drill out the plugs,much cheaper than drilling a well from scratch again.(drill a hole at 2005 cost / produce it for 2010 profits) Unless of course the Saudis are able to just FLOOD the markets again, but I don't think they will be able to do that anymore.

But that's just my opinion and probably doesn't count for much

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', 'M')y personal opinion is that it would be almost impossible to determine the true eroei in the oil and gas industry. There are just to many variables that are always changing and to many unknowns to give an accurate assessment of eroei.
I do believe that by the time we get to a true negative eroei the world's economies would have been in ashes for a long while.
For the economics the cost's will never be so high that it will be unprofitable for oil companies not to drill.One simple reason is TA. You can drill a well test it and if it is not economical to produce you drop in a couple of plugs and a cap and temporarily abandon it. This is done all the time. Come back in 5 or 6 years and it is now profitable and your well is already drilled,just have to drill out the plugs,much cheaper than drilling a well from scratch again.(drill a hole at 2005 cost / produce it for 2010 profits) Unless of course the Saudis are able to just FLOOD the markets again, but I don't think they will be able to do that anymore.

But that's just my opinion and probably doesn't count for much

[Nefarious]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Sorry, double negatives are hard enough to understand but triple? If I get what you are trying to say; oil will ALWAYS be profitable! Always means forever doesn't it? That's not just denying the ramifications of peak, but denying the very nature of the substance. Oil is an exhaustible, non renewable resource. The only known way to replace crude oil is wait a few hundred million years.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')How'd that turn out in 2008 when the price of oil went through the roof?

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')EROEI is not at all reduced in impact by being ignored by the oil industry or any other.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', 'I') do believe that by the time we get to a true negative eroei the world's economies would have been in ashes for a long while.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', '
')If a system spends more energy than it earns, ultimately, it stops. That's it. That's the whole Energy Return on Energy Investment concept.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')Whatever linguistic legerdemain you wish to employ, the bottom line is the same. When the costs in exceed the profits returned, the drilling stops...

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')osts have nothing to do with EROEI

[Quinny]

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Costs have nothing to do with EROEI