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A bleak picture as oil production slides

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 06 Oct 2009, 22:25:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', '
')I admit that is a hard peak scenario, but I really do not see any evidence at all to suggest that the world is doing just fine since peak. The obvious conclusion is that the world economy is in the toilet and unless oil supplies suddenly start growing very quickly the whole thing is going to get flushed within 24 months.


Perhaps a demonstration of what peak was supposed to look like, prior to it happening in 2005 or 2008? There is quite a bit of revisionist or selective "memory" currently cycling through the website as to what peak oil was supposed to be, before it actually happened of course and we discovered that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be.

This is my current favorite, certainly i could find worse by referencing something from LATOC, but this guy was actually supposed to be "in the know" and certainly has been around the block.

http://www.bluegreenearth.us/archive/ar ... -2005.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice du More', '
')I still expect a price spike this fall as the dollar starts fading fast and a gold bubble develops. Next spring is when I expect the next super spike (due to a sudden realization that oil supply has in fact peaked) and that one will send the US over the precipice into a full blown depression with unemployment rising into the low 20's percentile-wise.


Well, there were those who were thinking that the LAST peak oil was supposed to cause this, rather than a basic supply/demand imbalance which some think will actually be good for us.

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapit ... bank-says/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice Du More', '
')The end is near, the end is very near. Anyone who finds this site would be well advised to stock up on food and supplies for at least 12 months but that is not all. You need to have a plan for surviving without electricity, without running water, without grocery stores....


Again, some posters here apparently did just this, and put those plans into action last October, just about 1 year ago now.

http://peakoil.com/economics-finance/it ... 45311.html

Imagine what happened when he stuck his head out of his bunker 6 months later and found...the world was still here!! Matter of fact, some of us had been making money on the recent stock market runup.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice De More', '
')All you deniers are fools. Don't anyone who comes here say you were not warned! This site did not cause the catastrophe you are about to see. Quite the opposite, it has been a help to so many who have come here offering fellowship and much sound advice and analysis for those who, for whatever reason, have been awakened to the doom that is peak oil.

May God have mercy on our souls.


So...doom is peak oil...peak conventional oil happened 4 years ago.....Doom arrived in the form of...cheaper gasoline prices and a drop in real estate prices so substantial that those of us who knew it was coming can contemplate becoming slum lords to rent to all the people hiding in bomb shelters and in the woods when they come back to society and decide to get a job so they can stop practicing home dentistry on each other? 8O
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Voice_du_More » Tue 06 Oct 2009, 22:54:59

I'm not sure which turkish bizarre you frequent brother but you should know that that funny smelling smoke is clouding your judgment.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 06 Oct 2009, 23:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', 'I')'m not sure which turkish bizarre you frequent brother but you should know that that funny smelling smoke is clouding your judgment.


I've said it before, I'll say it again. Referencing the history, facts and reality of what was happening prior to our currently post peak world has nothing to do with MY obscured view.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 01:56:30

I read the Pimentel article. I did not study it in great detail but it did not look right to me. I have looked into producing my own biodiesel in some detail but I am by no means an expert. The part that looks askew to me is the Biodiesel. Who uses STEAM to extract vegetable oil when a mechanical press is all that is required? I got the impression that some of the inputs where double counted, like counting the cement for the extraction facility. It might have a 30 yr life span. There were assumptions on inputs that were not made clear, for example fertilizer inputs. Do all areas require these? If it is simply oil that is extracted,( that is carbon ,hydrogen and oxygen) the residue can be composted back into the field w/o any loss of soil nutrients.Yes it take some energy to spread it but not as much as making and transporting chemical fertilizers. It does not add up and is to me at least counter intuitive.

Here is another study that disputes Pimetel's EROI from University of New Hampshire:

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

and another from wiki

According to a study by Drs. Van Dyne and Raymer for the Tennessee Valley Authority, the average US farm consumes fuel at the rate of 82 litres per hectare (8.75 US gal/acre) of land to produce one crop. However, average crops of rapeseed produce oil at an average rate of 1,029 L/ha (110 US gal/acre), and high-yield rapeseed fields produce about 1,356 L/ha (145 US gal/acre). The ratio of input to output in these cases is roughly 1:12.5 and 1:16.5
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 02:28:25

It would still be a significant diversion from prime purpose - producing food!
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 07:11:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')If this is what peak oil doom feels like, it's a yawner. This is not to mock peak oil, but to perhaps challenge people's assumptions that what we have now comprises peak oil doomTM. To me it's nothing but a gentle prelude.


No kidding and I agree totally with that sentiment. The biggest problem PO.com has IMO is that the uber doomers have always been shouting form the rooftops THE END IS NIGH!! THE END IS NIGH!!!

While this may feel important all it really does is lead the poorly informed to either dismiss them as nut cases or fall into line and repeat the meme without actually understanding just what the situation is.

IMO with our economy barely crawling along $70.00 oil is a very bad sign. You can say BAU hasn't changed much all you like, and perhaps objectively you have a point, however with so much more income going for energy costs it does create a drag on the consumer driven economy. Five short years ago gasoline and diesel fuel in the USA cost roughly half of what they cost now. Just because people got used to paying more for fuel does not mean they changed their driving habits, most people drive just as much now as they did then and they use just as inefficient of a vehicle to do so.

So right there was a body blow to the economy, a lot of discretionary spending got shifted to energy spending. Add in the Housing bubble. Then add in the Banking bubble. Then hit the system with high unemployment further driving down discretionary spending. Next step, hit the system with high inflation due to Federal money printing.

I don't see a happy ending for this any time soon, and I do believe that if we were on the plateau we are working our way off of it quickly because of the lack of investment in the oil business.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Pops » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 08:21:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')nd it will be done now, because as we start down the completely new post-peak path such analysis will save us pointless expenditures of money and energy in places like the arctic...

You sure are optimistic for a doomer! :lol:

I'd bet ERORI studies have't stopped the building of one ethanol plant.
I know EROEI studies haven't shut down one ethanol plant either.

Yet lots have been shut, sold, cancled, etc. And why?

Profit, or the lack of.


By the same token EROEI won't stop drilling anywhere there is a profit to be made - ever.

Why is that so hard to admit?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 09:49:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Why blow all the money on a gamble when you might do some fancy Excel work in the office and discover it take more energy to sink a well under the ice sheet than you get back to the mainland?


Because the amount of energy used is irrelevant, what matters is the amount of money you might, or might not, make. Maddog has made this abundantly clear.

It is, however, a free country. Start up an oil company and drill wells on the basis of EROEI if you wish.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 09:58:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')So right there was a body blow to the economy, a lot of discretionary spending got shifted to energy spending. Add in the Housing bubble. Then add in the Banking bubble. Then hit the system with high unemployment further driving down discretionary spending. Next step, hit the system with high inflation due to Federal money printing.


Sounds awful similar to the 70's-80's cycle as well. It certainly was a pain in the butt time period to live through, oil had peaked and was declining, inflation and stagflation were the norm, malaise gripped the country, survivalism and back to the earth living was helped along by the economic conditions, amazing how things never seem to change.

It should be noted that the world didn't end then either, but we certainly learned many lessons which have been applied today already. Hybrid vehicles a decade ago being a decent start, the amazing growth in renewable electrical generation and the sheer number of solar panels in, say, California nowadays, people are finally taking the energy issues seriously. That alone puts this cycle different than the last one, let alone the beginning of structural change in the transport industry.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 10:09:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Why blow all the money on a gamble when you might do some fancy Excel work in the office and discover it take more energy to sink a well under the ice sheet than you get back to the mainland?


Because the amount of energy used is irrelevant, what matters is the amount of money you might, or might not, make. Maddog has made this abundantly clear.

It is, however, a free country. Start up an oil company and drill wells on the basis of EROEI if you wish.



That is spin Short. Irrelevent to what? Don't doublespeak. EROEI is vital to long term survival of individuals, businesses, Government and civilisation as a whole.

Each has it's own language for it.

Individual: I won't earn enough food to maintain my bodyweight.
Business: I won't bring enough in to pay the bills.
Government: We can't borrow any more; nobody is lending.
Civilisation: We ran out of almost everything; oil 1st.
That's EROEI.

You are raving on in semantics while trying to debunk a science you don't agree with.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 10:25:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')It is, however, a free country. Start up an oil company and drill wells on the basis of EROEI if you wish.



That is spin Short. Irrelevent to what? Don't doublespeak. EROEI is vital to long term survival of individuals, businesses, Government and civilisation as a whole.


EROEI is a joke. To date, MD has quantified why money and energy aren't the same thing, and I beleive Pops just came up with the verbiage for why EROEI doesn't matter as well. Let me quote Pops...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops and his excellent example of why EROEI doesn't matter in the real world', '
')
I'd bet ERORI studies have't stopped the building of one ethanol plant.
I know EROEI studies haven't shut down one ethanol plant either.

Yet lots have been shut, sold, cancled, etc. And why?

Profit, or the lack of.


What is so difficult to understand about such a basic fact of EROEI? Pops obviously gets it just fine.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Individual: I won't earn enough food to maintain my bodyweight.
Business: I won't bring enough in to pay the bills.
Government: We can't borrow any more; nobody is lending.
Civilisation: We ran out of almost everything; oil 1st.
That's EROEI.


Now you are running afoul of the simple words of MD. Lending and borrowing? Bills? "Running out" of oil? What part about EROEI not mattering in any of those circumstances is confusing you? A BTU has a defined value, which does not change. Fiat currency has no value. Would you like me to post MD's oh so poignant explanation again? 8)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')
You are raving on in semantics while trying to debunk a science you don't agree with.

I am "raving" about those who apparently don't understand either the words of MD, or the example provided by Pops. They obviously understand the difference...why don't you? It isn't HARD in any way that I can imagine, and their examples/explanations make it perfectly obvious to me.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 10:31:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')starr wrote:
Why blow all the money on a gamble when you might do some fancy Excel work in the office and discover it take more energy to sink a well under the ice sheet than you get back to the mainland?


Information trumps all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You are raving on in semantics while trying to debunk a science you don't agree with.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;The human economy is one such highly-ordered, complex, dynamic system. It is also an open sub-system of a materially closed, non-growing ecosphere, i.e., the economy is contained by the ecosphere. Thus the economy is dependent for its maintenance, growth and development on the production of low entropy energy/matter (essergy) by the ecosphere and on the waste assimilation capacity of the ecosphere.

"This means that beyond a certain point, the continuous growth of the economy (i.e., the increase in human populations and the accumulation of manufactured capital) can be purchased only at the expense of increasing disorder (entropy) in the ecosphere.


At some point humanity and civilization must stabilize, but we're long past that point where either can stabilize w/o collapsing.

And I like SoS postings. Doing Everything possible not to understand EROEI. And never understanding along with TOD
how costs are exported. Care to explain how Coal Ash Pits
are not part of the cost of EROEI?

Cause Everyone living on the Clinch River South of that Kingston TN plant and in that Alabama Co where the ash is now being moved are certainly in the EROEI formula that you disdain.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 10:39:55

And I love that Money and Oil have been PROVED not
to be one and the same.

I missed that argument. Too bad. Because it's faulty and I can
prove it.

Every inflection point in the oil discovery/production Curve
has been marked Exactly by a Human Watershed Event.

The Human Population Growth Curve Exactly matches the Oil Discovery/Production Curve. Any Sixth Grader can see it.

More and More Religion is being used to argue v Science
here and elsewhere.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 10:56:38

For Cornucopians to explain ONLY:

http://www.cfr.org/publication/8834/katrina_and_oil_prices.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')atrina and Oil Prices
Interviewer: Esther Pan
Interviewee: Richard Karp

September 7, 2005

Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S.refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil prices briefly spiked to above $70 per barrel before dropping after President Bush decided to release 30 million gallons from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

from: Table 1.1d World Crude Oil Production (Including Lease Condensate), 1997-Present (September 2009 International Petroleum Monthly)
2005 August 73,737
2005 September 73,295

2009 July 72,421
Considering that crude oil production is only marginally below where it was in 2005, how do you account for the price of oil being where it was during Katrina-panic era, when we are in a massive recession now? (Read up on shadowstats.com as U.6=17%)
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