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A bleak picture as oil production slides

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 11:10:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'F')or Cornucopians to explain ONLY:

http://www.cfr.org/publication/8834/katrina_and_oil_prices.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')atrina and Oil Prices
Interviewer: Esther Pan
Interviewee: Richard Karp

September 7, 2005

Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S.refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil prices briefly spiked to above $70 per barrel before dropping after President Bush decided to release 30 million gallons from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

from: Table 1.1d World Crude Oil Production (Including Lease Condensate), 1997-Present (September 2009 International Petroleum Monthly)
2005 August 73,737
2005 September 73,295
2009 July 72,421
Considering that crude oil production is only marginally below where it was in 2005, how do you account for the price of oil being where it was during Katrina-panic era, when we are in a massive recession now? (Read up on shadowstats.com as U.6=17%)



It's called risk factoring and has something to do with EROEI even if nobody can tell exactly what.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 11:15:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I disagree. After going around with LackofBrains, I do believe stupidity holds sway here and probably everywhere. I used to think people were just lazy but -sense has convinced me otherwise.

It must take a lot of work to remain as dumb as he is. 8O


And that is it. It takes a lot of work. While getting less and less energy return on his investment. :roll: But with information you do
no work. And here is how you can tell the US peaked in 1972:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
After increasing social equality and greatly improving health and other quality of life measures (including major increases in leisure time) from World War II until the mid-1970s, the United States abruptly changed its economic trajectory.

“It will be a hard pill for many Americans to swallow,” Business Week predicted in October, 1974, “— the idea of doing with less so that big business can have more. Nothing that this nation or any other nation has done in modern history compares in difficulty with the selling job that must now be done to make people accept the new reality.”

Emboldened by Richard Nixon’s landslide 1972 victory, extreme conservatives moved to reduce the responsibilities (and increase the wealth) of wealthy Americans, while cutting back on public services for the poor and average working Americans.

These policies accelerated during the 1980s and early 1990s and are now enshrined in the “you’re on your ownership” attitude of the present federal policies.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 11:40:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Considering that crude oil production is only marginally below where it was in 2005, how do you account for the price of oil being where it was during Katrina-panic era, when we are in a massive recession now? (Read up on shadowstats.com as U.6=17%)



It's called risk factoring and has something to do with EROEI even if nobody can tell exactly what.

Risk factoring is a nifty concept, although I'm not sure of what risks exist in 2009 that are more severe than 2005 (Iraq vs Afghanistan, Katrina vs quiet GoM) OTHER than EROEI, which for everything the Saudis would say won't be a problem ever, LOL.

Iran is a greater risk I suppose, or possibly not. (considering bomb-bomb-Iran-didn't win, Mahmoud A is weakened and we may end up needing their help with Afghanistan)
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 11:51:40

Don't play dumb ranger. The risk is a rapid return to peak price.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:14:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', ' ') Care to explain how Coal Ash Pits
are not part of the cost of EROEI?


Easy. Costs are not included in any EROEI calculation I've ever seen listed here or anywhere else. Its an energy metric....so much goes in, so much comes out. No cost involved, just energy.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Why is an EROEI strawman need to be assembled for an industry which has never used this metric, and particularly what does it have to do with oil declines? Oil production certainly doesn't decline because of EROEI either, it declines because of the loss of the natural drive mechanisms in any particular oilfield, TOD did a reasonable article on the topic recently.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'D')on't play dumb ranger. The risk is a rapid return to peak price.

At least I'm only playing dumb, some (unmentioned) actually seem so for real! :mrgreen: \

That being said... I'd say we still haven't settled the score as to whether $147 represented peak price and brought down the economy or whether the housing bubble was... My simple take would be that the housing bubble was the primary cause of the collapse, and the $147/bbl was simply the pin that helped the bubble to pop.

Also, one could say that an excess of money available for speculation, provided that pin.

The smart money probably left housing at the housing peak and started immediately chasing oil. I guess the question is did the smart money leave oil before it hit $147 and go into gold?

The whole bubble thing kind of reminds me of being on a sinking raft and trying to get yourself higher out of the water putting boards under you obtained by removing boards from the bottom of the raft.

I suppose gov debt is probably the last bubble...

Tech Stock Bubble -> Housing Bubble -> Oil & Commodities Bubble -> Gov Debt?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:33:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'A')nd I love that Money and Oil have been PROVED not
to be one and the same.

I missed that argument. Too bad. Because it's faulty and I can
prove it.


Really? Here is MD's quote. Disprove it all you'd like.

"A BTU is a BTU. It's real value does not change. Fiat currency however has no real value. One is a constant, and has real limits to its availability to do "useful work". The other has no limit and does no work"

Heres the entire thread, knock yourself out.

http://peakoil.com/economics-finance/th ... 20optimism

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Every inflection point in the oil discovery/production Curve
has been marked Exactly by a Human Watershed Event.


So...now the geology of the world and the resulting bell shaped production/discovery profiles...formed 10's of millions of years ago....are now dependent on human events? Wow.....

Here's a trick question....what was the single year of peak "flowing oil" discovery (which excludes the Athabasca because most of it has to be mined) in the entire history of humankind? Its a trick question because the censored information in the peaker mythology tale generally ignores it and I was wondering if you know as much as you want to claim. You have to admit, in a bell shaped curve nearly EVERY point could be considering an inflection point, or you could argue that there is only one...when it crests the peak. So you must be a really smart guy! So I figure a trick question shouldn't be any trouble at all.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgownjm', '
')The Human Population Growth Curve Exactly matches the Oil Discovery/Production Curve. Any Sixth Grader can see it.

More and More Religion is being used to argue v Science
here and elsewhere.


This thread is about oil and corresponding production declines, take religious nonsense elsewhere. The idea that the population growth curve matches oil discovery, which basically didn't exist until 1859, is the most ridiculous, "cart before the horse" argument I've ever heard of around here. The Reverend Who PreDates Modern Doomers certainly didn't need oil discovery some 70 years in the future to make fanciful estimates of what the human population growth rate looked like, now you want to blame all human population growth prior to 1859 on something which didn't even EXIST until 1859?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:36:35

The margin lending which expanded like mad to create the eventual burst bubble was highly relevant to risk factoring. A shite load of marginal loans were made with a certain default risk. The default risk was calculated on a never ending boom acid trip. The acid wore off when the default margin was exceeded. It only took a hair trigger to tip this highly geared and fragile aspect of the economy. The Chinese decided to buy a lot of oil to make themselves look grand on TV as well as on inventory sheets (Olympics); start of buying frenzy then peak simultaneously as the prices began to sink in. Psychedelic. Would you agree Mos?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:39:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')It is, however, a free country. Start up an oil company and drill wells on the basis of EROEI if you wish.
So it doesn't matter that simple analysis and common sense tell us a project is unsustainable and must ultimately fail? Just as long as you can make a buck in the short term?


The solar system is unsustainable and doomed to fail. So perhaps all that remains in the short term is to make a buck and live out our short lives in the shadow of our planets ultimate destruction in as reasonable a way as we can.

But this thread isn't about someone's religious views on which time scales or the type of Doom which matters, its about production slides. In that case, EROEI doesn't matter, as Maddog has verified for us, and which you have yet to refute.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:41:37

Shorty, you are digging yourself a hole.
A minute ago it was all about fiat value; now it's all about BTUs.
If it's all about fiat it's all bull Expletive deleted. if it's all about BTUs then it's all about EROEI. :razz:
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:46:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'D')on't play dumb ranger. The risk is a rapid return to peak price.
Risk? I say its a REQUIREMENT to make certain that the necessary change takes place. Some people have picked up on this point quite well. Blogs
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:53:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')horty, you are digging yourself a hole.
A minute ago it was all about fiat value; now it's all about BTUs.
If it's all about fiat it's all bull Expletive deleted. if it's all about BTUs then it's all about EROEI. :razz:
You appear to not understand MD's quote, nor its application to any sentence where someone confuses EROEI with costs or prices or economic concepts.

I wish I could help you, but bequeathing extra neurons to the needy is beyond my capabilities.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 12:57:39

Just because some here don't understand the difference does not give you the right or perogative to make out there is no difference or that nobody understands the difference, so there isn't one. Dickhead. (Sorry Mods but he has it coming)
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 13:15:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')eavy man. You are soooooooo deep.
Again avoiding the question. Why are you trolling here?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')addog. Remind us all why greed and short-term quarterly-type lack-of-intelligent-planning is good. And science is bad. Okay?
Maddog certainly never said science was bad, and I know I haven't. As to how precise economics as a science is, thats a different question.

Why don't we just stick to the basics:
A) We have no evidence that the current oil and gas world uses EROEI as any sort of measure for deciding to do, or not do, a project.

B)We know that the most current peak happened in either 2005 or 2008 depending on how you wish to define "oil production".

C) There is a claim on the table which says that EROEI is somehow involved in the production slide from whichever peak is your favorite.

Could you please present ANYTHING, an idea, some factual data, some personal professional experience, a study, which relates the slide in production post peak to ANYTHING related to EROEI? ANYTHING? A nugget, a tidbit, a kernel?

For example, oil production mostly climbed from the start of production until 2005, or 2008, depending on which definition of oil you like. In 2005, or 2008, it reversed direction, caused the awe inspiring peak we have all been waiting for, and here we are some time period later, enjoying our post peak world.

The entire time oil production was increasing, according to an article I noticed over at TOD, EROEI was declining. Not saying anything about the value of their study, just using it as a reference point.

So EROEI was dropping, and dropping...and dropping...and oil production has been increasing, and increasing, and increasing...and suddenly,,,,EROEI got so bad that oil production dropped? Or did oil production decline because of all those OTHER factors, and EROEI wasn't particularly important on the ramp up in production, nor the slide down?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 14:31:56

Weird thought here. Feel free to shoot it down. I'm not emotionally invested in this... :o

I wonder hypothetically, what the potential EROEI of fusion power would be? (if it ever became feasible)

If one devised a system where you use the energy output from fusion as an input for creating some kind of liquid fuel substitute to gasoline, then the EROEI of the process creating liquid fuel would not be the defining factor, but the net EROEI of fusion AND the 2nd process.

A lot of arguements here essentially circle around issues of timing.

Given enough time, it seems like we could generate enough RAW energy to make up for a shortfall of petroleum, but the question is could that MAKEUP energy be in a form that is readily useable?

If all one needs is one soup spoon, having 3 forks doesn't help much.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 18:45:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'W')eird thought here. Feel free to shoot it down. I'm not emotionally invested in this. I wonder hypothetically, what the potential EROEI of fusion power would be? (if it ever became feasible)
If one devised a system where you use the energy output from fusion as an input for creating some kind of liquid fuel substitute to gasoline, then the EROEI of the process creating liquid fuel would not be the defining factor, but the net EROEI of fusion AND the 2nd process.
A lot of arguements here essentially circle around issues of timing. Given enough time, it seems like we could generate enough RAW energy to make up for a shortfall of petroleum, but the question is could that MAKEUP energy be in a form that is readily useable?
If all one needs is one soup spoon, having 3 forks doesn't help much
Using Fission power, which we already have access too abundantly, you can take CO2 and H2O and chemically recombine them into CH4, Pentane, Hexane, Heptane, Octane or any other Organic molecules you want. Of course the transition from Fission to heat to steam to chemical reaction loses energy at each step of the process, but with a well designed system you can get about 25% of the fission energy released back out as chemical energy.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 19:19:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Do you really believe your disjointed rants or my unserious responses have any value here at PO?


That depends on the audience doesn't it? For example, whether or not the audience believes that someone with a degree in science but not a clue what sublimation is, is being "unserious" or just doesn't have a clue for example.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
') I have a reason for engaging you---to offset the apathy your denial might instill in others.


Then why don't you do so? Starting with the most recent question I asked....to show the apathetic how the all encompassing power of EROEI dropping for the past century had something to do with the most recent peak, and the accompanying production slide? That is the topic at hand, no matter how often you want to make the topic personal.
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