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THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby Maddog78 » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 19:18:11

Yeah, you've probably made a good move.
Us old guys will need replacing in a few years and there is a bunch of us.
Oil and Service companies went quite a few years without significant hiring.
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Green energy investments top carbon fuels: UN

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 19:27:20

Green energy investments top carbon fuels: UN

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal investments in renewable energy overtook those in carbon-based fuels for the first time in 2008, attracting a record 155 billion dollars, a UN report said Wednesday.

Of that sum, 36 billion dollars was invested in producing clean energy in emerging economies such as China, a increase of 27 percent compared to 2007.

And 105 billion dollars was spent directly developing power generating capacity from wind, solar, small-hydro, biomass and geothermal sources.

The 2008 investment was more than four times higher than that in 2004 according to the report Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009, prepared for the UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090603/sc_afp/environmentenergyusuninvestments
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Global oil companies to invest $375 bn despite downturn

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 03 Jun 2009, 20:16:35

Global oil companies to invest $375 bn despite downturn

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he private and state-run oil companies worldwide would invest $375 billion in the hydrocarbon sector this year despite the economic downturn and concerns about low oil demand, market research firm Ernst & Young said in a report.

It said the state-run oil companies are on course to invest over $275 billion in 2009, while major private sector companies have committed $100 billion.


About 70 percent of the investment would come from the oil companies in Asia and South America, and based on the current estimates, the oil companies would be investing $600 billion in the hydrocarbon sector by 2015, it added.


http://sify.com/news/international/fullstory.php?a=jgdwEmfedeg&title=Global_oil_companies_to_invest_%24375_bn_despite_downturn
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Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Maddog78 » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 11:50:22

I hope they get after it soon. I got a lot of oilfield colleagues either looking for a job or worrying their's won't last much longer.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=akHq3iK1sd9o&refer=energy



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices


By Torrey Clark

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Oil companies must increase investment in production to prevent a surge in crude prices that may outstrip the records of last year, according to industry executives and officials.

Declining investment will naturally lead to production declines, making a Saudi prediction of oil at $150 barrel “realistic” within three years, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum today.

Crude has fallen more than 50 percent since reaching a record of $147.27 a barrel in July last year as demand has declined in the world economic turmoil. Global investment in the oil industry may drop by as much as 21 percent this year, Sechin said, citing International Energy Agency estimates.

Should companies fail to invest, a demand crunch could drive up the price to $160 or even $200 a barrel, BP Plc Chief Executive Tony Hayward said, answering a question about surpassing last year’s prices. Hayward was at a session on the oil price attended by executives including OAO Gazprom’s Alexei Miller, who last year said oil might reach $250 a barrel.
snip...................

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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 14:39:44

By invest, do you mean oil companies should drill more oil wells?

Thats not a very politically popular position right now.......

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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Maddog78 » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 17:21:18

True. The Democrats seem to hate the idea of drilling more wells in the US.
Yet they say they want to reduce imports. Strange.
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby oddone » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 17:54:25

NOC's control 88% of proven reserves in the world. Oil Companies like EM, BP, RDShell are "invited" to invest extreme amounts of money to get a possible profit in 5-7 years. Would you put your money in say KSA, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia? Clearly not.

The NOC's that contol the resources are paralyzed by their inherent inefficiency, and will never develop past that, as their "business model" is ruled by idiots like Chavez, Morales and Ahmadinejad, who have prevailing agendas like indian sentiment or muhammed.
Other NOC's don't fare much better paralyzed by race, religion, nationalism and inefficiency.

Unforunately it seems most of the world's energy resources are held by entities that a prudent investor would not touch with a fire rake.
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Re: Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 20:43:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il producers have cancelled or delayed 170 billion dollars' worth of investment in recent months, the IEA said in comments published Monday, underlining the impact of the economic crisis.


Nobody said that Peak Oil would have to be geological. It's more like geo-econo-socio-political.

2008 was clearly the peak. Production rates will not return to that level again ever.
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Re: Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 06 Jun 2009, 20:57:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il producers have cancelled or delayed 170 billion dollars' worth of investment in recent months, the IEA said in comments published Monday, underlining the impact of the economic crisis.


Nobody said that Peak Oil would have to be geological. It's more like geo-econo-socio-political.

2008 was clearly the peak. Production rates will not return to that level again ever.

Never say never. But 90 million barrels per day, let alone 100? I doubt it.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Stocks:Renesola Breaks Out as Entire Solar Sector Shows Life

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 07 Jun 2009, 18:57:03

Renesola Breaks Out as Entire Solar Sector Shows Life

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')enesola Ltd. (SOL) traded sharply higher Friday with little new company specific information has been released. At ZachStocks we have been watching the solar sector carefully over the past months and found plenty of great opportunities in the area now that investors are once again warming to the alternative energy area. For Renesola to rally without specific news is certainly a positive thing and it may represent one or two large institutions building a new position.

According to Thomson estimates, SOL is expected to earn 53 cents per share in 2010. If these expectations are correct, the stock has just recently moved to the point where its forward PE is over 10. This is a major milestone since the market had been pricing these companies at low single digit multiples for some time. But I see this trend of multiple expansion continuing higher as confidence builds. While we may not see multiples of 30 or 40 as was the trend in early 2008, a multiple of 20 on strong solar growth companies is not out of the question.


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Re: Renesola Breaks Out as Entire Solar Sector Shows Life

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 08 Jun 2009, 20:55:05

Brighter days seen for solar, next-gen biofuels


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ig changes are afoot in the fledgling alternative-energy industry. As the sector recovers from the 2008 financial market meltdown, insiders look for next-generation biofuels and solar technologies to start joining mainstream energy markets, while wind power continues to lean heavily on government support.

Overall, renewable energy companies are starting to talk less of competition with oil and gas and more about an intensifying competition between alternative-energy technologies.


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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby aahala2 » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 10:50:50

It's a pretty ineffective argrument to ask oil companies
to invest more in order to avoid the companies to be
able to charge more in the future.

The argrument can be restated as follows:
"Unless you spend more now, you will be able to
receive more in the future."
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 13 Jun 2009, 17:04:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')rue. The Democrats seem to hate the idea of drilling more wells in the US.
Yet they say they want to reduce imports. Strange.


This morning's graph:

Image

17,347 E&D wells for crude oil in 2009: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Exploratory and Development Wells, EIA. Up from 8,054 in 2003, I wouldn't call this slacking off.

I'm all for up-to-date seismic exploration of the offshore in total, to find out what we really have; by the same token various Dems might oppose such a measure in the interest of keeping things a mystery so they can push for vaporware like Al Gore's plan for one final decade of hydrocarbon usage, which is an even bigger fantasy than short term energy independence, we all know the timelines for discovering and implementing deepwater projects, which aren't going to replace our imports overnight. Pols continuing to spout rhetoric about either of these scenarios coming to pass is what makes me doubtful in the extreme about any viable top-down solution, except for things like tax breaks on insulation, which we can act on personally.

Was surprised to read in Morgan Downey's book Oil 101 that the IOC's production still ranks high despite their paucity of reserves; perhaps this the result of doing business more efficiently. The top 5 non-OPEC companies are Pemex, Exxon Mobil, BP, Petrochina, Lukoil. Will scan this table and post it later.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')emand isn’t stagnant because of continuing urbanization and growing population, Hayward said.


What, are you the White House Press Secretary now? What happened to all that Peak Demand blather?
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 18 Jun 2009, 10:24:29

You mean 17,347 wells for 2008
There will be no where near that for 2009.
btw, up to date seismic does not tell us what we really have.
The only way to know for sure is to punch a hole. Any oilman will tell you that.
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 13:42:30

It seems like private successful large oil companies such as Shell, Exxon, etc. providing CONSULTING services for various large-reserve NOC's would be both viable (they insist on getting paid as they go), and beneficial to everyone concerned - to the extent that NOC production is made more efficient.

It seems to me I read somewhere in 2009 (perhaps The Economist, but I'm unsure) that this was a significantly growing trend, given the problems with direct investment by capitalism and the risk of nationalization by the NOC's and their countries.

However, I was unimpressed with the initial hits I got trying to Google this - mainly looked like self-promotion / advertising or too nonspecific. (Not that I tried real hard, admittedly).

Maddog, as an oilman, do you have any (general disclosable) insight into this - i.e. is this a widespread phenomenon?

If this is NOT widespread and folks like Chavez are devestating the productivity of huge resources all over the world due to lack of expertise as the negative folks tend to claim - it's just too stupid to comprehend (IMO), even with our humans at the helm...
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 13:47:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')rue. The Democrats seem to hate the idea of drilling more wells in the US.
Yet they say they want to reduce imports. Strange.


The Dems are VERY pro nuke, but don't advertise the fact.
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 14:20:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala2', 'I')t's a pretty ineffective argrument to ask oil companies
to invest more in order to avoid the companies to be
able to charge more in the future.

The argrument can be restated as follows:
"Unless you spend more now, you will be able to
receive more in the future."


That's pretty short term thinking. If that were the only variable, OPEC should just shut everything down and only sell oil when the price gets "high enough".

In the real world, oil companies don't want to drive their customers to alternative sources faster than necessary.

Also, you have depletion. If new wells aren't drilled, when the crude prices DO increase (as the trend seems destined for the intermediate term), oil in the ground that can't be recovered for years or even decades doesn't exactly fill the coffers with cash.

OTOH, with all the short term thinking much of recent corporate behavior seems to exemplify -- it wouldn't surprise me if this production delay tactic is going on to a certain extent.
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Maddog78 » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 14:26:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')addog, as an oilman, do you have any (general disclosable) insight into this - i.e. is this a widespread phenomenon?




To the best of my knowledge this is not yet a large part or even a small part of their business.

In fact this would actually apply more to the oilfield service companies like Schlumberger and Halliburton etc.

In the last big downturn of 1999 the oil companies really slimmed down.
They contract out for much of their expertise and services.
Not to say that there is not a lot of knowledge within the majors themselves but they always rely heavily on the service companies in any of their projects.
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 14:31:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')rue. The Democrats seem to hate the idea of drilling more wells in the US.
Yet they say they want to reduce imports. Strange.


The Dems are VERY pro nuke, but don't advertise the fact.


Yeah, the dems want clean energy, but ONLY clean energy. That's nice but it takes lots of time to GET there on sufficient scale. Even to build a portfolio of new nuke plants (if you want to call that green - I'll agree to greener).

So meanwhile, what to we do with our economy to GET THERE, as hydrocarbon prices escalate, led by crude oil?

If the dems weren't the first to yell and point fingers about the evil oil companies which gouge consumers, and the evil speculators, an outcry for windfall profits taxes, etc. every time there is a demand driven price spike in crude - I'd accept the democrat green-only position as at least somewhat reasonable. However, given the dems behavior -- THEY are a big part of the problem re the short to intermediate term supply of fossil fuels.

(By the way, I'm a libertarian, and hate stupid behavior on BOTH sides of the aisle - so please don't assume I'm just an angry republican).
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Re: Oil Companies Urged to Invest to Avoid Surge in Crude Prices

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 31 Jul 2009, 16:10:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')rue. The Democrats seem to hate the idea of drilling more wells in the US. Yet they say they want to reduce imports. Strange.


That is happening anyway:

Image

This courtesy of ethanol/demand destruction/continued refining capacity/? Chu wants "advanced biofuels" so we'll see what comes of that; CAFE standards take a jump in 2011, too, but who knows what sales volumes will be at that stage.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou mean 17,347 wells for 2008
There will be no where near that for 2009.
btw, up to date seismic does not tell us what we really have.
The only way to know for sure is to punch a hole. Any oilman will tell you that.


3D seismic will be legit P1 according to SEC revision as of Dec 15th, as will oil sands. Welcome to the world of the Shadow Economy.
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