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THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Big Oil buying back stocks over exploring for new oil.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 16:22:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'D')on't waste money searching for oil that IS Not THERE, but instead buy back stock, thereby driving stock price up.
Why would you buy your own stock if you think your business is ending? Wouldn't you want to sell your stock instead?
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Re: Big Oil buying back stocks over exploring for new oil.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 16:39:32

V,

I'm no expert on corporate management but the shareholders expect the company assets to generate increased shareholder value. EM is spending as much as they can on the E&P side but their huge income due to high oil prices still leaves them with too much cash. Putting it into T Bills doesn't earn much these days. Purchasing your own stock increases the value of the shareholder stock (at least in theory). It may sound strange but it isn't view favorably by Wall Street for a public corporation to just be sitting on a pile of cash. EM pays the same dividend rate they have for decades. Thus there's no way for them to share all the new income with the shareholders. After all, it's their money. Folks who might complain about EM's effort to enrich its shareholders should remember who the majority of EM's owners are: the union workers and retirees in the US. They are the majority owners of EM through their pension and retirement funds. Last time I saw the number 60% of EM was owned by these folks even though many don’t know it.
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Oil price surges on stockpile shortage

Unread postby KevO » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 15:23:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices have rebounded after the US said petrol stockpiles had fallen unexpectedly last week. US light, sweet crude rose $4.25 to $126.44 a barrel having hit an almost three month low on Tuesday. London Brent crude rose $4.09 to $126.80.

Petrol supplies shrank by 3.5 million barrels, the US Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had expected a 200,000 barrel gain. In previous months, oil prices have rallied to record levels partly because some investors were looking to protect themselves from a weakening US currency.

Another factor helping to cut oil prices in recent weeks has been on the supply side, where there were indications that tensions were easing between oil-producer Iran and the US over its nuclear programme. This reduced fears that the supply of crude oil from Iran could be interrupted.

But on Wednesday, Iran said that it would continue its nuclear path. Western powers had given Tehran two weeks from 19 July to respond to an offer of holding off more UN sanctions if Iran froze expansion of its nuclear work.
BBC News
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Re: Oil surges on stockpile shortage

Unread postby dukey » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 18:44:50

aww
and petrol prices were just starting to go down here
up to 5p around here.. people were just getting ready to climb back into the suvs :p
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Re: Oil surges on stockpile shortage

Unread postby IanC » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 21:15:12

So typical. Headlines all over the place the last few days about how oil prices were "retreating", "tumbling", etc. down to $120. Wasn't long ago everyone was panicing at $90.

Just keep the masses happy and ignorant.

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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Fri 15 Aug 2008, 20:40:31

this may be of interest BLG bluglass
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby Micki » Sat 16 Aug 2008, 09:41:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '
')Going to try EGO for a small pre results profit at 1.7c.. try and sell as soon as it hits 2.4 or somthing... about it really..


Too easy... Like taking candy from a baby.


Why don't you sell half at 100% and keep the rest for the long haul. It is really sweet when some of these penny stocks go up several 100% percent. But if you take out the money you initially invested, you don't have to worry so much if thing don't play as well or fast as hoped.
I sat on EWC for over 3 years and then bagged round 500% when James Packer bought in. Had I not sold the lot I could have got double that.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby solarpoweredlasers » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 07:17:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '
')Going to try EGO for a small pre results profit at 1.7c.. try and sell as soon as it hits 2.4 or somthing... about it really..


Too easy... Like taking candy from a baby.


Why don't you sell half at 100% and keep the rest for the long haul. It is really sweet when some of these penny stocks go up several 100% percent. But if you take out the money you initially invested, you don't have to worry so much if thing don't play as well or fast as hoped.
I sat on EWC for over 3 years and then bagged round 500% when James Packer bought in. Had I not sold the lot I could have got double that.


Well.. each company needs to be taken on it's own merits.
EGO is different to EWC or PCL previously mentioned. EGO has 2.6B shares on issue and the targets they're drilling for aren't too crazy (after this next one anyways). Fundamentally the sp shouldn't really go up that much on most of it's drills, and the ones where it should I already have exposure via a more highly leveraged company.

Oil exploration companies are very different to other shares.. there isn't any long term appreciation until they actually find oil, until then they oscillate pretty wildly.
The last drill where I said I was going to buy at 1.7 and sell at 2.4 and did just that.. the drill would have really only been worth ~5c if it came in. With a generous 10% chance of success there wasn't TOO much of a carrot to keep a portion in. (A 10% chance of success on a 5c find is valued at .5c)
I could have made more by holding out a little longer (it went to 3c briefly), but I took real profits, not imaginary ones, plus I was using CFD's, so more cautious.

It's funny this has been bumped as EGO are about to start their next drill. I've bought in again at 1.7c in about 4 different parcels and will off load them from 2.3-2.4 upwards hopefully averaging somewhere near 2.6c. The new target has a 5% chance of bringing in ~7c and about a .5% chance of bringing in 35c+ so it's more along the lines of what you're talking about.. keep half in for a big payday etc.

However the reasons for keeping a parcel in aren't as compelling as having it in a more highly leveraged company in the same drill. EGO is a day trading stock.. so it goes silly, (which is a case for holding a parcel..) even though a find might only be worth 7c technically theres no reason it won't spike at 10c plus because it's a highly liquid stock ramped to the hilt on the boards. It went to 6.3c briefly before a 20c drill even started (essentially pricing in a 31% chance of success) which is retarded.
But it's a much more dependable idea to hold a parcel in a company involved in the same drill that has more leverage (imho & depending on the situation, but as a rough guide where the leverage is at least 2X times more). You're not depending on having your finger on the trigger and timing the spike sell (which could be intraday). BFEO and DVM both have more leverage. So if you buy $1000 worth of EGO at 1.8c and they strike the likely amount of oil you turn your $1000 into ~$4400.. but if you look at the companies with fewer shares and lower market caps you get ~$14,600 from BFEO or ~$14,700 from DVM currently as of today's sp's based on the fundamentals.

So really.. trade the trading stock.. hold the leverage stock as your little lotto ticket (well, there is a half a percent chance of getting 90k on your 1k with BFEO)
Last edited by solarpoweredlasers on Mon 25 Aug 2008, 07:43:45, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby solarpoweredlasers » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 07:33:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 't')his may be of interest BLG bluglass


Looks interesting... I'll take a bit more of a look at it. Trying to only trade the shares I've got a good history with atm though, portfolio is still in the green but down quite a lot.. waiting and waiting for these bloody drills to come in.
PCL is probably the only pure oil spec I'd look to invest long term in atm at mid 3c.. EMR (producing now, but still a spec) and CVN both good long termers at 16c (has fundamentally changed since it was hanging around 10c) and 44c respectively.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby Micki » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 08:45:10

CFU might be interesting.
THeir share price hasn't done much, but for more than the last year they have been running trials of fuel cells and going from memory (it was a littel while since I last checked this one) they had some orders for installations. It doesn't look like vaporware and they are not making unrealistic promises (perhaps that is why their share price has been so comatose).
Anyway of late there have been a few upticks on this one, so worth checking out if it takes off.
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Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 11:57:14

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts
By Daniel Whitten

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity index investors, blamed for record oil prices, sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between their July record and Sept. 2, causing crude to plunge, according to a report released today.

The work by Michael Masters, president of the Masters Capital Management hedge fund, blames investors who buy and hold an index of commodities for driving prices to records, and for their subsequent drop. It comes a day before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss its own study of energy trading with a congressional committee.

Masters testified three times before Congress this year, arguing that limits on traders would cut oil prices to $65 to $70 a barrel. He has been cited by lawmakers who introduced at least 20 measures to curb speculation. Congressional pressure on the CFTC to step up enforcement and restrict anonymous trades has pushed index traders out of their positions, Masters said.

[...]
Last edited by copious.abundance on Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:30:13, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts

Unread postby some_guy282 » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 13:26:00

The same study got a different headline on the CNN front page.

Study Blames Speculation for Oil's rise
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:29:36

More here:

Congress members pledge action after oil speculation study

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n independent report showing that record amounts of speculative investment drove oil prices to record peaks in 2008 confirms that stronger market regulation is needed, federal lawmakers said.

Institutional investors pumped more than $60 billion into major commodity indexes, resulting in the purchase of approximately 187 million bbl of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures and a nearly $33/bbl increase in their price, according to the study by Michael W. Masters, portfolio manager at Masters Capital Management, and Adam K. White, research director at White Knight Research & Trading.

Starting July 15, however, index speculators made a 180-degree turn and pulled about $39 billion from those indexes which led to the sale of about 129 million bbl of West Texas Intermediate crude futures and a drop of some $29/bbl in their prices by Sept. 2, the study's authors said.

"We went into this with fairly open minds. We recognize that money moves markets, but in this case we saw an unusually significant amount of money come into the market and oil prices increase, followed by a significant withdrawal in July and a decrease in prices," Masters told reporters at a briefing.

The findings confirmed several federal lawmakers' suspicions and they announced that they will try to make stronger commodities regulation part of any comprehensive energy bill that is produced in the next few weeks. The study also came out the day before the US House Agriculture Committee plans to hold a hearing on speculation and oil commodities. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also expects to issue what is now being called a swaps report by Sept. 15.


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Re: Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:44:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '-')-> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts
By Daniel Whitten

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity index investors, blamed for record oil prices, sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between their July record and Sept. 2, causing crude to plunge, according to a report released today.

The work by Michael Masters, president of the Masters Capital Management hedge fund, blames investors who buy and hold an index of commodities for driving prices to records, and for their subsequent drop. It comes a day before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss its own study of energy trading with a congressional committee.

Masters testified three times before Congress this year, arguing that limits on traders would cut oil prices to $65 to $70 a barrel. He has been cited by lawmakers who introduced at least 20 measures to curb speculation. Congressional pressure on the CFTC to step up enforcement and restrict anonymous trades has pushed index traders out of their positions, Masters said.

[...]


So here we have M Masters, who wrongly predicted that the price of oil wouldn't rise this year, telling us oil is over-priced because of speculation - but yes, he is heavily speculating on the price to fall so that he will make millions in his hedge fund if the price declines.

Unfortunately those like M Masters, who has seen the assets of his hedge fund fall by half this year, will probably get their way. After gasoline shortages spread, probably soon, people will probably even demand that futures trading be closed down. So we may get $70 oil, but pegging the price below market clearing levels will result in shortages, so no one will have any gasoline to get to work.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures Contracts

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:58:40

^
If he believes oil is over-priced, it's smart of him to bet that the price will fall, is it not? This is regardless of the reason for the price run-up. He probably just sees himself as taking advantage of someone else's (speculators') stupidity, while nevertheless pointing out precisely how stupid these other people were. It's like giving them a double-whammy: Expose their stupidity, but also profit from it.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Physicists urge U.S. to invest in energy efficiency

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 03:28:12

Physicists urge U.S. to invest in energy efficiency

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. can reduce its dependence on foreign oil and greenhouse-gas emissions by making cars and buildings much more energy efficient, according to a study released Tuesday by a large national association of physicists.

The 46,000-member American Physical Society argues the need for action is urgent because the energy crisis is the worst in U.S. history.

The report argues that the country can still go a long way to reduce energy use in cost-effective ways that allow for continued comfort and convenience. It recommends that the federal government adopt policies and make investments to boost energy efficiency.

"One of the things we would love to see is all buildings have Energy Star labels," Richter said. "Right now you don't know how much energy a building is going to use that you're interested in moving into. We'd like to see an energy audit required before a building is sold or even built."

On transportation, a key recommendation is more federal government investment in developing cheaper and more reliable batteries for electric cars.

"If you look at magically converting the whole fleet to plug-in hybrids" that get 40 miles per charge, greenhouse gases would be reduced by 33 percent and gasoline use by 60 percent, Richter said.

That would be the equivalent of cutting oil imports by 6 million barrels a day, Richter said. That's the amount the U.S. imports from OPEC (largely from Saudi Arabia , Venezuela and Nigeria ), out of a total of about 13.5 million barrels imported a day from all countries.


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Re: Physicists urge U.S. to invest in energy efficiency

Unread postby Nano » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 05:01:22

In Europe we now have an energy audit system in place that requires the sale of any residential or commercial building to be accompanied with an energy label. The system is a dismal failure, however, because the energy label was designed to display the *relative* energy efficiency of the building.

An example of why is doesn't work:

In appartement buildings, the current system causes units at the sides and top of the building to get a better energy label than the ones in the center of the complex, even though they use more energy. Why? Because they are classed in a different category and get credit for have more insulated outter wall and/or roof area. So although these units have a higher energy use and the same living space, they still get a better energy label. In other words: the value of the system is zero.

Same with cars in Europe. The energy label of cars is also based on a category system. In other words, a big, heavy gasguzzling sedan can have a better energy label than a small car which is in a different class. Consumers don't know what to make of it. They are looking for an energy efficient vehicle, and the energy label system is in some cases urging them to buy a big, heavy car rather than a small, light car, simply because it has a better label.

What we should learn from all this is that making energy efficiency a factor in consumer behaviour is very difficult. It is not something that we can assume will happen automatically as energy prices rise. Consumers are not informed enough to make the right decision, and the existing energy label system is confusing them even more...
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Largest US energy cooperative to invest $1.5bn in biomass

Unread postby lorenzo » Wed 24 Sep 2008, 14:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eptember 24, 2008
Largest U.S. power supply cooperative to invest up to $1.5bn in biomass power plants

After becoming the leading renewable energy source in Europe, biomass is beginning to grow big at the other side of the pond too. Oglethorpe Power Corporation (OPC), America's largest power supply cooperative, is going green in a major way by announcing plans to build as many as three 100 megawatt (MW) biomass electric generating facilities in Georgia. Designed to utilize woody biomass, one of the state’s most abundant renewable resources, the baseload power plants will provide power to OPC’s 38 member cooperatives, which supply electricity to nearly half of Georgia’s population.

With our abundant biomass resources, Georgia has the unique opportunity to expand our use of alternative energy, grow our economy and transform the way we provide energy to our citizens. Oglethorpe Power’s pioneering investment in alternative energy is consistent with our goal to grow, convert, and use biomass energy to power our homes and businesses. - Sonny Perdue, Governor of Georgia

OPC has secured options for five potential sites in Appling, Echols, Warren and Washington counties. The first two biomass power plants are scheduled to be built and placed into operation in 2014 and 2015; however, which of the five sites will host the first plants is still to be determined. A third unit could also be completed and placed into service in 2015.

Capital investment in the biomass plants will range from $400-500 million per facility, with each providing approximately 40 good-paying, full-time jobs. In addition, each plant will require an annual investment of more than $30 million for fuel stock alone and will create a need for potentially hundreds of new jobs in the state’s forestry industry.

The power plants will be steam-electric generation stations using conventional fluidized bed boiler/steam turbine technology. Fuel for the plants will consist of a woody biomass mixture, including processed roundwood (e.g. chipped pulpwood), primary manufacturing residue (e.g. wood waste from sawmills) and harvest residue (e.g. wood remaining in forests after clearing). The plants will be designed to allow for the co-firing of other types of biomass, such as pecan hulls and peanut shells. There are no plans to use any fossil fuels.

[...]

Source


I dunno, but 300 MW for $1.5bn doesn't seem cheap - $5 million / MW baseload capacity.

How much do other energy sources cost per MW?

In any case, all bits help, I guess?
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BASF is investing 100 mio. € in oil alternatives

Unread postby cephalotus » Sun 28 Sep 2008, 16:20:32

The high prices of naphtha (crude petroleum) as a feedstock for steam crackers are prompting the chemical industry to re-evaluate alternative approaches to securing raw material supplies...

http://www.corporate.basf.com/en/presse ... Czoibcp2*M
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 08 Nov 2008, 00:21:33

WAS
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