by solarpoweredlasers » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 07:17:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('solarpoweredlasers', '
')Going to try EGO for a small pre results profit at 1.7c.. try and sell as soon as it hits 2.4 or somthing... about it really..
Too easy... Like taking candy from a baby.
Why don't you sell half at 100% and keep the rest for the long haul. It is really sweet when some of these penny stocks go up several 100% percent. But if you take out the money you initially invested, you don't have to worry so much if thing don't play as well or fast as hoped.
I sat on EWC for over 3 years and then bagged round 500% when James Packer bought in. Had I not sold the lot I could have got double that.
Well.. each company needs to be taken on it's own merits.
EGO is different to EWC or PCL previously mentioned. EGO has 2.6B shares on issue and the targets they're drilling for aren't too crazy (after this next one anyways). Fundamentally the sp shouldn't really go up that much on most of it's drills, and the ones where it should I already have exposure via a more highly leveraged company.
Oil exploration companies are very different to other shares.. there isn't any long term appreciation until they actually find oil, until then they oscillate pretty wildly.
The last drill where I said I was going to buy at 1.7 and sell at 2.4 and did just that.. the drill would have really only been worth ~5c if it came in. With a generous 10% chance of success there wasn't TOO much of a carrot to keep a portion in. (A 10% chance of success on a 5c find is valued at .5c)
I could have made more by holding out a little longer (it went to 3c briefly), but I took real profits, not imaginary ones, plus I was using CFD's, so more cautious.
It's funny this has been bumped as EGO are about to start their next drill. I've bought in again at 1.7c in about 4 different parcels and will off load them from 2.3-2.4 upwards hopefully averaging somewhere near 2.6c. The new target has a 5% chance of bringing in ~7c and about a .5% chance of bringing in 35c+ so it's more along the lines of what you're talking about.. keep half in for a big payday etc.
However the reasons for keeping a parcel in aren't as compelling as having it in a more highly leveraged company in the same drill. EGO is a day trading stock.. so it goes silly, (which is a case for holding a parcel..) even though a find might only be worth 7c technically theres no reason it won't spike at 10c plus because it's a highly liquid stock ramped to the hilt on the boards. It went to 6.3c briefly before a 20c drill even started (essentially pricing in a 31% chance of success) which is retarded.
But it's a much more dependable idea to hold a parcel in a company involved in the same drill that has more leverage (imho & depending on the situation, but as a rough guide where the leverage is at least 2X times more). You're not depending on having your finger on the trigger and timing the spike sell (which could be intraday). BFEO and DVM both have more leverage. So if you buy $1000 worth of EGO at 1.8c and they strike the likely amount of oil you turn your $1000 into ~$4400.. but if you look at the companies with fewer shares and lower market caps you get ~$14,600 from BFEO or ~$14,700 from DVM currently as of today's sp's based on the fundamentals.
So really.. trade the trading stock.. hold the leverage stock as your little lotto ticket (well, there is a half a percent chance of getting 90k on your 1k with BFEO)
by copious.abundance » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 11:57:14
-->
Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures ContractsBy Daniel Whitten
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity index investors, blamed for record oil prices, sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between their July record and Sept. 2, causing crude to plunge, according to a report released today.
The work by Michael Masters, president of the Masters Capital Management hedge fund, blames investors who buy and hold an index of commodities for driving prices to records, and for their subsequent drop. It comes a day before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss its own study of energy trading with a congressional committee.
Masters testified three times before Congress this year, arguing that limits on traders would cut oil prices to $65 to $70 a barrel. He has been cited by lawmakers who introduced at least 20 measures to curb speculation. Congressional pressure on the CFTC to step up enforcement and restrict anonymous trades has pushed index traders out of their positions, Masters said.
[...]
Last edited by
copious.abundance on Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:30:13, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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copious.abundance
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by Graeme » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:29:36
More here:
Congress members pledge action after oil speculation study
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n independent report showing that record amounts of speculative investment drove oil prices to record peaks in 2008 confirms that stronger market regulation is needed, federal lawmakers said.
Institutional investors pumped more than $60 billion into major commodity indexes, resulting in the purchase of approximately 187 million bbl of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures and a nearly $33/bbl increase in their price, according to the study by Michael W. Masters, portfolio manager at Masters Capital Management, and Adam K. White, research director at White Knight Research & Trading.
Starting July 15, however, index speculators made a 180-degree turn and pulled about $39 billion from those indexes which led to the sale of about 129 million bbl of West Texas Intermediate crude futures and a drop of some $29/bbl in their prices by Sept. 2, the study's authors said.
"We went into this with fairly open minds. We recognize that money moves markets, but in this case we saw an unusually significant amount of money come into the market and oil prices increase, followed by a significant withdrawal in July and a decrease in prices," Masters told reporters at a briefing.
The findings confirmed several federal lawmakers' suspicions and they announced that they will try to make stronger commodities regulation part of any comprehensive energy bill that is produced in the next few weeks. The study also came out the day before the US House Agriculture Committee plans to hold a hearing on speculation and oil commodities. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also expects to issue what is now being called a swaps report by Sept. 15.
pennenergy
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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by DantesPeak » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 21:44:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '-')->
Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]
Oil Investors Pulled $39 Billion in Futures ContractsBy Daniel Whitten
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity index investors, blamed for record oil prices, sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between their July record and Sept. 2, causing crude to plunge, according to a report released today.
The work by Michael Masters, president of the Masters Capital Management hedge fund, blames investors who buy and hold an index of commodities for driving prices to records, and for their subsequent drop. It comes a day before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to discuss its own study of energy trading with a congressional committee.
Masters testified three times before Congress this year, arguing that limits on traders would cut oil prices to $65 to $70 a barrel. He has been cited by lawmakers who introduced at least 20 measures to curb speculation. Congressional pressure on the CFTC to step up enforcement and restrict anonymous trades has pushed index traders out of their positions, Masters said.
[...]
So here we have M Masters, who wrongly predicted that the price of oil wouldn't rise this year, telling us oil is over-priced because of speculation - but yes, he is heavily speculating on the price to fall so that he will make millions in his hedge fund if the price declines.
Unfortunately those like M Masters, who has seen the assets of his hedge fund fall by half this year, will probably get their way. After gasoline shortages spread, probably soon, people will probably even demand that futures trading be closed down. So we may get $70 oil, but pegging the price below market clearing levels will result in shortages, so no one will have any gasoline to get to work.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
by Graeme » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 03:28:12
Physicists urge U.S. to invest in energy efficiency
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. can reduce its dependence on foreign oil and greenhouse-gas emissions by making cars and buildings much more energy efficient, according to a study released Tuesday by a large national association of physicists.
The 46,000-member American Physical Society argues the need for action is urgent because the energy crisis is the worst in U.S. history.
The report argues that the country can still go a long way to reduce energy use in cost-effective ways that allow for continued comfort and convenience. It recommends that the federal government adopt policies and make investments to boost energy efficiency.
"One of the things we would love to see is all buildings have Energy Star labels," Richter said. "Right now you don't know how much energy a building is going to use that you're interested in moving into. We'd like to see an energy audit required before a building is sold or even built."
On transportation, a key recommendation is more federal government investment in developing cheaper and more reliable batteries for electric cars.
"If you look at magically converting the whole fleet to plug-in hybrids" that get 40 miles per charge, greenhouse gases would be reduced by 33 percent and gasoline use by 60 percent, Richter said.
That would be the equivalent of cutting oil imports by 6 million barrels a day, Richter said. That's the amount the U.S. imports from OPEC (largely from Saudi Arabia , Venezuela and Nigeria ), out of a total of about 13.5 million barrels imported a day from all countries.
yahoo
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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