by Starvid » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 18:19:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ARIS (AFP) – Oil producers have cancelled or delayed 170 billion dollars' worth of investment in recent months, the IEA said in comments published Monday, underlining the impact of the economic crisis. Falling oil prices, tight credit markets and slumping demand have stunted investment, the International Energy Agency's chief economist Fatih Birol was quoted as saying by France's specialist Petrol Industry Bulletin.
"In recent months, petrol groups have cancelled or postponed about 170 billion dollars (122 billion euros) in investment," he said, adding that the cancelled and postponed projects cut production by 6.2 million barrels per day. Daily world oil production is about 83 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, which has also predicted demand will drop by three percent this year, the sharpest fall since 1981.
Birol said oil investment was hit hardest in North America and the North Sea, while the Middle East was relatively spared since production costs are lower there.
YahooUh-oh. Reading stuff like this makes me doubt if we'll ever even reach 90mbpd.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA warns of slide in energy investment
The economic downturn is cutting investment in energy supply, raising the risk of higher prices in future that could hamper any recovery, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency said. Fatih Birol, The IEA's advisor to 28 industrialized countries, said in an interview he expected oil and gas upstream investment to fall 21%, or about US$100-billion ($113.8-billion), in 2009 from 2008 due to the global recession.
"Energy investment is plunging," Mr. Birol said. "If these two come together --a further cut down in the investment and a quick and strong recovery in the economy -- we may have difficulties in the oil market in a few years' time."
"This may mean higher prices, and this will mean the global economy, which will be on the way to recovery, might be badly, negatively affected." The outlook may add to concern prices could surge back to the record highs of last year once the economy and energy demand recover, although the IEA has often warned investment is too low and a supply crunch may be looming around 2012.
Spending on renewable energy, such as wind power, is falling even more rapidly than on oil and gas. The IEA expects renewables investment to slide 38% this year compared to last, Mr. Birol said. He was citing an IEA report that will be presented to the G8 energy ministers, who are meeting in Rome this weekend. Oil rose to a six-month high above US$62 a barrel yesterday as fires at U. S. refineries and violence in Africa's top exporter, Nigeria, revived investors' concerns about supplies.
Crude has also gained a lift from rallying equity markets in the past few months, which have factored in expectations of economic recovery. It is still far below its record high of US$147.27 hit last July. Investment is falling because the credit crunch has limited companies' access to financing, lower energy prices have hit their revenues and consumers and businesses are using less fuel.
World oil demand this year will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd), the sharpest annual decline since 1981, according to the IEA. In response, OPEC oil exporters have cut supplies sharply. Even so, investment "is plunging so significantly it will have major implications for oil security and climate change," Mr. Birol said.
For oil, investment cutbacks are expected to delay projects that could supply a total of 6.2 million bpd over the next few years, Mr. Birol said. That is equal to more than the combined daily production of Iran and Kuwait.
Of the total, 2 million bpd is seen as delayed immediately or indefinitely cancelled, and the rest delayed for at least 18 months, Mr. Birol said. The initial 2 million bpd represents investment of about US$170-billion.
Not all agree with the IEA. The agency warned in 2007 of a supply crunch around 2012, a view that some analysts said was actually contributing to higher prices by putting a "fear premium" in the market. Foresees 21% drop