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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby Micki » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 19:10:57

WAS that a comment to CFU?
Yeah, they lost a bundle of money on the markets.
The product still seems to be progressing. I was actually surprised the share didnt' drop more.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 20:13:00

no WAS Wasabi Energy

see announcment 10/9/08
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is there oil stock?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 13:03:43

Hi,
Is there such a thing as an oil stock? I'd like to invest some money in oil, but I don't want to deal with options and I don't want to invest in companies. Is there a stock, tied 1:1 to the oil price?
thanks
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 13:06:25

You buy futures but it is a deadly game if you don't know what you are doing.

You sound like an inexperienced investor. Am I right?
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 13:07:48

Or buy the USO an oil etf.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 14:00:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'Y')ou buy futures but it is a deadly game if you don't know what you are doing.

You sound like an inexperienced investor. Am I right?


That's true. But also I'd like to just buy and forget. Buy some oil stock, let it sit for 10 years and sell if the price is right.
With options you always end up with the deadline and sleep less nights.

Can you please explain what USO is and also what an ETF is. Thanks.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 14:12:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Can you please explain what USO is and also what an ETF is. Thanks.

Look Here for information.

However I suggest you get very familiar with it before investing.

If investing was as easy as buying something and forgetting about it for 10 years then everybody would be rich.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 14:45:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')If investing was as easy as buying something and forgetting about it for 10 years then everybody would be rich.

Well, I agree. However I think everybody on this board agrees that oil prices will eventually be much much higher than now. Maybe next year, maybe in 10 years, maybe in 30. So from that point of view it seems a pretty safe bet.

But anwyas I read the USO info and it says:
The investment objective of USO is for the units’ net asset value (“NAV”) to reflect the performance of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma (“WTI light, sweet crude oil”), less USO’s expenses.

So how is this done? And what exactly does USO do? They invest in what? Or do they buy millions of gallons of oil and bunker it?

So there's a chance that even with skyrocketing oil prices, this USO can go broke, right?
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 15:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')So how is this done? And what exactly does USO do? They invest in what? Or do they buy millions of gallons of oil and bunker it?

So there's a chance that even with skyrocketing oil prices, this USO can go broke, right?


I have no idea how it works. That is why I do not invest in it. However many of the books and tv shows I have watched recommend it as a way to play oil.

The most direct way to invest in oil is buying working interest, mineral rights, or royalties. However they are expensive and hard to come by.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 16:49:30

You are bettter off investing in oil companies not futures as the former are far more predictable than the latter varying according to season, the business cycle, the investment supply, and the supply/demand squeeze-induced ramp.

I did very well last year in a company called Helmerich and Payne which produces flexible drilling rigs. I bought in during November of 2007 when the stock was around $32/share and sold in June of 08 when it was up in the $70s/ share. Due to additional investment in the interim my return in this was on the order of 90% in those several months.
That was before the demise of Lehman, resultant credit freeze, and following market crashes this fall.
Though I had sold out last summer, I bought back in too early starting heavily in September. The economy is driven more by credit than by oil.
Am still doing well with short-term plays in Contango Oil & Gas as well as a few other drillers and Visa (which just makes money on the card transactions and does not hold the debt). Have a deal with WFB so I don't pay comissions on the first 100 trades in each of 4 accounts. If you are serious about learning how to trade stocks, I am open to discussing it, but don't expect to let things run on cruise control. I am doing well by out-playing short-sighted fools and lazy ignorant shiftless people and those who are too involved with work to deal with the details.

G
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 17:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', ' ')If you are serious about learning how to trade stocks, I am open to discussing it, but don't expect to let things run on cruise control. I am doing well by out-playing short-sighted fools and lazy ignorant shiftless people and those who are too involved with work to deal with the details.
G

I used to trade, but I lost interest. I understand all the risks, including the risks of futures. For me, there's a million things more interesting to do than researching companies, watching stock tickers und stuff.
Since I'm convinced oil will be much more expensive in the future, I'd like to try my luck, but with a minimum amount of portfolio maintenance. That's why a direct investment in oil, not oil company would be best.
Something like a fund that buys a tanker full of oil, ships it to the customer and sells it. Takes the spoil and goes back and buys another tanker full. I guess I'll try this USO mentioned before. See how well that goes.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 17:29:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', ' ')If you are serious about learning how to trade stocks, I am open to discussing it, but don't expect to let things run on cruise control. I am doing well by out-playing short-sighted fools and lazy ignorant shiftless people and those who are too involved with work to deal with the details.
G

I used to trade, but I lost interest. I understand all the risks, including the risks of futures. For me, there's a million things more interesting to do than researching companies, watching stock tickers und stuff.
Since I'm convinced oil will be much more expensive in the future, I'd like to try my luck, but with a minimum amount of portfolio maintenance. That's why a direct investment in oil, not oil company would be best.
Something like a fund that buys a tanker full of oil, ships it to the customer and sells it. Takes the spoil and goes back and buys another tanker full. I guess I'll try this USO mentioned before. See how well that goes.


You sound way too passive to be investing any amount of money. How do you lose interest when you make money for doing almost nothing. I read a few hours a week, keep track of the markets and latest news and basically double my yearly income because of it. Some years are better some are worse but it is not that hard.

There are risks with any investment so make sure you know what you are investing in BEFORE you invest your money.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 17:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
') I read a few hours a week, keep track of the markets and latest news and basically double my yearly income because of it. Some years are better some are worse but it is not that hard.

Yeah, this is what I don't understand. By the time I read the news, the news is past and all the trader fanatics that sleep next to their computer already made their move. How can you actually beneft from the news? It seems to me that a normal person with normal access to normal news channel is at a disadvantage. So what's left is long term investment which require careful planing and company analysis.
I'm really wondering if investing in short term stock (say less than 5 years) is anything different than gambling in Las vegas.
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Re: is there oil stock?

Unread postby JBinKC » Sun 05 Apr 2009, 06:11:07

I think the USO is a pure rip off. It invests in oil futures. It has underperformed crude oil benchmark prices badly in the upswing last year and with current contango built in futures prices continues to have a subpar return.

I think it is best to buy a firm that is either grossly undervalued on their P1 reserve basis or is able to massively add to reserves. In that search I would also consider balance sheet issues as their are now plenty of companies especially that are smaller cap now with going concern issues.
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Fri 17 Apr 2009, 20:39:50

CNM carnegie corp

wave power and desalinated water
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 14 May 2009, 20:52:00

CNM aquires global rights

asx.com.au CNM Carnegie Corp
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Re: Australian peak oil related investments.

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 21 May 2009, 06:23:07

BLG

www.bluglass.com.au

possible solar photovoltaics
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Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 18:19:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ARIS (AFP) – Oil producers have cancelled or delayed 170 billion dollars' worth of investment in recent months, the IEA said in comments published Monday, underlining the impact of the economic crisis. Falling oil prices, tight credit markets and slumping demand have stunted investment, the International Energy Agency's chief economist Fatih Birol was quoted as saying by France's specialist Petrol Industry Bulletin.

"In recent months, petrol groups have cancelled or postponed about 170 billion dollars (122 billion euros) in investment," he said, adding that the cancelled and postponed projects cut production by 6.2 million barrels per day. Daily world oil production is about 83 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, which has also predicted demand will drop by three percent this year, the sharpest fall since 1981.

Birol said oil investment was hit hardest in North America and the North Sea, while the Middle East was relatively spared since production costs are lower there.
Yahoo

Uh-oh. Reading stuff like this makes me doubt if we'll ever even reach 90mbpd.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA warns of slide in energy investment

The economic downturn is cutting investment in energy supply, raising the risk of higher prices in future that could hamper any recovery, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency said. Fatih Birol, The IEA's advisor to 28 industrialized countries, said in an interview he expected oil and gas upstream investment to fall 21%, or about US$100-billion ($113.8-billion), in 2009 from 2008 due to the global recession.

"Energy investment is plunging," Mr. Birol said. "If these two come together --a further cut down in the investment and a quick and strong recovery in the economy -- we may have difficulties in the oil market in a few years' time."

"This may mean higher prices, and this will mean the global economy, which will be on the way to recovery, might be badly, negatively affected." The outlook may add to concern prices could surge back to the record highs of last year once the economy and energy demand recover, although the IEA has often warned investment is too low and a supply crunch may be looming around 2012.

Spending on renewable energy, such as wind power, is falling even more rapidly than on oil and gas. The IEA expects renewables investment to slide 38% this year compared to last, Mr. Birol said. He was citing an IEA report that will be presented to the G8 energy ministers, who are meeting in Rome this weekend. Oil rose to a six-month high above US$62 a barrel yesterday as fires at U. S. refineries and violence in Africa's top exporter, Nigeria, revived investors' concerns about supplies.

Crude has also gained a lift from rallying equity markets in the past few months, which have factored in expectations of economic recovery. It is still far below its record high of US$147.27 hit last July. Investment is falling because the credit crunch has limited companies' access to financing, lower energy prices have hit their revenues and consumers and businesses are using less fuel.

World oil demand this year will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd), the sharpest annual decline since 1981, according to the IEA. In response, OPEC oil exporters have cut supplies sharply. Even so, investment "is plunging so significantly it will have major implications for oil security and climate change," Mr. Birol said.

For oil, investment cutbacks are expected to delay projects that could supply a total of 6.2 million bpd over the next few years, Mr. Birol said. That is equal to more than the combined daily production of Iran and Kuwait.

Of the total, 2 million bpd is seen as delayed immediately or indefinitely cancelled, and the rest delayed for at least 18 months, Mr. Birol said. The initial 2 million bpd represents investment of about US$170-billion.

Not all agree with the IEA. The agency warned in 2007 of a supply crunch around 2012, a view that some analysts said was actually contributing to higher prices by putting a "fear premium" in the market. Foresees 21% drop

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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby Maddog78 » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 18:29:18

Yeah, it sucks, especially for a guy like me who's in the E&P business.
Plenty of my colleagues have been laid off.
I can see the same problem as a couple of years ago happening again.
When they decide to ramp up their E&P budgets it will be very difficult to hire qualified people.
Many I know (50+) have said this is it for them. They won't return to the oil business.
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Re: Huge cut in oil investment

Unread postby AAA » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 18:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'Y')eah, it sucks, especially for a guy like me who's in the E&P business.
Plenty of my colleagues have been laid off.
I can see the same problem as a couple of years ago happening again.
When they decide to ramp up their E&P budgets it will be very difficult to hire qualified people.
Many I know (50+) have said this is it for them. They won't return to the oil business.


That is one of the reason I decided to go into the oil business. I am 26 years old and most of my colleagues are 50+ also. There will be lots of opportunity for young people in 10+ years when all those people start retiring.
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