[AirlinePilot]

Thats your opinion Thread and it isn't supported by the myriad things going on right now which do support an increasing price. 99% speculation?? Highly unlikely.

We are not the only ones who notice that the industry is in big trouble with low crude prices. I know we are not the only ones who can understand what a recovery may mean.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')hats your opinion Thread and it isn't supported by the myriad things going on right now which do support an increasing price. 99% speculation?? Highly unlikely.

We are not the only ones who notice that the industry is in big trouble with low crude prices. I know we are not the only ones who can understand what a recovery may mean.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') don't completely disagree with you, but think the 10.00 increase in one week was pure "get me the hell out of the yankee buck" trade.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')aybe, but I think that sentiment isnt quite with us yet. I think folks just see whats going on and want to be part of the commodity game. It may be far more lucrative if we get to the point your talking about.

[TheDude]

March 2009 VMT Report is out.



1.7% reduction YOY on all highways.

Here's my chart of Urban/Rural VMT vs. Total Gasoline Supplied (i.e., Finished+RBOB+Conventional):



Pretty solid correlation in the Urban. Rural miles are down down down, due to demographic shift and/or a little-observed secular economic downturn. Note that even with product supplied a linear regression still indicates a long-term uptick here, which is even more pronounced in the VMT data. The 12-month YOY averages for the country as a whole tell another story though, but for now at least driving continues in urban areas, hence all the puzzled anecdotal stories about gridlock.

[ki11ercane]

I personally don't think people understand the bigger picture here in prices and that is the reduction in time it's taking for prices on oil to rebound. Oil went from $40.00 a barrel to $148.00 a barrel in 39 months. 370% increase in 39 months. It's a staggering amount of money and increase.

The real spectre now is that in just 18 weeks oil has gone from $33.00 a barrel to $60.00. While the footprint amount of oil is small, what needs to be realized is the SHORT TIMEFRAME that has happened! Only been 18 weeks or 4.5 months! It took oil in the last price hike 3 years to double in price, and this time it has only taken 18 weeks! That's a 181% increase in 4.5 months. Are we going to see $180.00 barrel by January 2010 at this pace?

I am not an expert and I am not presuming this trend will continue but I don't think ANYONE is considering that it won't take another 39 months (more like 1/3rd of that timeframe) for price to hike up again, and no economy in the world can afford it.

[dohboi]

I think the trend that will continue is one of volitility. Someone over at TOD posted a story about how whale oil prices fluctuated wildly after its peak, though the fluctuations trended ever higher.

It has become ever more difficult to know where exactly oil prices are going to be in three, six, twelve...months. The support level last tested was about $35. Presumably that level is ever rising and we will never see that price again, but who knows?

And of course the hurricane season could have some effect, particularly on US gas prices.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
') It has become ever more difficult to know where exactly oil prices are going to be in three, six, twelve...months. The support level last tested was about $35. Presumably that level is ever rising and we will never see that price again, but who knows?

[dohboi]

lol. Yeah, the trouble with predicting price is that it is not just a matter of geological constraints but also of world demand, value of the dollar, intensity of wars....

I would stand by my prediction of greater and greater instability, though. The complete melting of the Arctic icecap during this or one of the next few summers is going to alter all sorts of things--shipping and exploration possibilities for oil and gas on the one hand, but much more important the viability of many areas in the northern hemisphere for the agriculture that has been practiced there for the past hundreds or thousands of years.

[Voice_du_More]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'T')he complete melting of the Arctic icecap during this or one of the next few summers is going to alter all sorts of things--shipping and exploration possibilities for oil and gas on the one hand

[eXpat]

Oil prices could spike to $150 a barrel: Saudi Arabia
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')OME: Saudi Arabia warned oil prices could spike to beyond the near $150 record high of 2008 within three years as it joined other energy
leaders on Monday to call for more investment to boost production over the long term.

Energy ministers and officials at the Group of Eight energy summit wrapped up the two-day meeting by urging the industry to pump money into projects to expand capacity despite the credit crisis, which has put the brakes on investment.

The meeting came as oil prices hover at a six-month high of over $60 a barrel, but producers fret that it remains below the $75 level needed to spur investment while consumer nations fear further rise in prices could hurt global economic prospects.

The recent rally in prices is expected to have eased OPEC concerns about high inventories and weak demand, and OPEC officials have suggested an output cut is unlikely at a Thursday meeting, though Libya says that possibility still exists.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the world was heading for a fresh spike after the current phase of faltering demand and lower prices, which he said reflected the economic downturn rather than being an indicator of things to come.

[sjn]

Either OPEC has the spare capacity to put a lid on prices at this level of demand, or it doesn't. Long term investment isn't going to affect that. So much for CERA's 6.5Mbbl/day..

[eXpat]

Still a long way to go to reach the previous records but is encouraging
Oil and gas prices hit new high for the year
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')OLUMBUS, Ohio — Oil and gasoline prices hit a new high for the year Wednesday despite expectations that OPEC will not cut production again and more bad news arrived for the nation's automakers.

Benchmark crude for July delivery rose $1 to settle at $63.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices haven't been that high since early November.

Retail gasoline prices, which are up 19% in the past month, rose 0.9 cents overnight to $2.434 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Prices are now 10 cents higher than a week ago and 38.4 cents a gallon higher than a month ago. It's also a high for the year.

[Voice_du_More]

where is the usual playful banter and spread of opinions? We have just watched the price of oil nearly double in a couple months, somebody must have something to say about that. :

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', 'w')here is the usual playful banter and spread of opinions? We have just watched the price of oil nearly double in a couple months, somebody must have something to say about that. :

[Voice_du_More]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'H')ow about, 'you ain't seen nothin' yet!'

[Revi]

During the last run-up it averaged almost 10% per month.(370% in 39 months).

We are going to see oil at around $110 at that
rate by the end of the year.

That's my unscientific prediction.

[Voice_du_More]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'D')uring the last run-up it averaged almost 10% per month.(370% in 39 months).

We are going to see oil at around $110 at that
rate by the end of the year.

That's my unscientific prediction.

[Voice_du_More]

My worst case fear however is a spike over $100 within the next few weeks as hyperinflation kicks in in the US and depletion advances are worse than feared with some exotic weather and geopolitical intrigue. We could see troops home from Iraq patrolling Los Angeles and New York by the fall. That is all just doomsday nonsense though.