[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', 'D')o you have a timeline for $70, $80, $90, or would you prefer to stay off the record?

[copious.abundance]

I said it early last July - and I was right - and I will say it again: The higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.

[lowem]

The Saudi's target price is $75, some of us have been guessing this level earlier, and some of them have actually been talking about this level, so that's a number to watch out for.

[copious.abundance]

As I write this the July contract is more $$ than all of the August - October contracts.

Something's gotta give.

[copious.abundance]

^
Ah, with today's settles the backwardation has been reduced to just the August contract. But the forward months through the end of the year aren't that much above the current contract:
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

[something_awfull]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')IL has jumped to a seven-month high, after a leading forecaster described recent gains as only the "prologue" to a bigger rally.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled $US2.69, or 4.1 per cent, higher at $US68.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $US2.83, or 4.3 per cent, higher at $US68.71 a barrel.

Spooked by a forecast of a "likely return to energy shortages" by Goldman Sachs, oil prices quickly recovered from yesterday's steep losses and resumed the march towards $US70 a barrel.

The bank's analysts predicted that futures would reach $US85 a barrel by the end of 2009, and $US95 a barrel at the end of 2010, as demand increases from economies emerging from the current downturn.
src

[Revi]

I wonder if we'll break $70 today. It doesn't look like it, but you never know. It seems to do interesting things in the last hour of trading on a Friday.

[eXpat]

Spot on Revi!!!!!
Oil tops $70 a barrel, expected to go higher
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices spiked briefly above $70 per barrel on Friday for the first time since October on the back of a Labor Department report that showed the pace of layoffs eased in May.

The unemployment rate, at 9.4 percent, rose to its highest level in more than 25 years. But the loss of 345,000 jobs in May was the lowest monthly total since September and strengthened hopes that the recession in the world’s largest economy may be bottoming out.

Benchmark crude for July delivery hit $70.32 per barrel, the highest since October, after the data was released. It then fell back to $69.70 a barrel. On Thursday the contract shot up $2.69 to settle at $68.81.

[Roy]

Now they're giving it away!

$.01/bbl

[dohboi]

So when was it last at $35? How long did it take for the first new doubling? What kind of a trajectory does that set for the run up this time?

[TheDude]

Topped $70/bbl just now.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')o when was it last at $35? How long did it take for the first new doubling? What kind of a trajectory does that set for the run up this time?

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the last run-up it averaged almost 10% per month.(370% in 39 months).

[dohboi]

As I recall, we were going past exponential to hyperbolic rates toward the end of the last run up.

I think we could well hit or exceed $100 (the target level just announced by OPEC) levels before the end of the year.

link

[frankthetank]

$72.09

I see Russia is going to sell off a bunch of treasuries or stop buying them... That can't be good for the petrol dollar.

[Graeme]

Natural Gas Oversupply to Weigh on Oil Prices?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he divergence in natural-gas and crude-oil prices has gone to an extreme. Natural-gas prices have fallen below $4 (U.S.) per million British thermal units while crude oil prices have shot up and are hovering close to $70 (U.S.) a barrel, leaving the ratio of oil-to-gas prices nearly double the historic average.

The oversupply situation in gas could be like an anchor that weighs down oil prices, as energy users increasingly switch from oil to much cheaper gas (and speculators catch on to the dynamics). The substitution effect may also get a boost from governments favoring natural gas as a cleaner-burning fuel with less dependence on foreign suppliers.

Who knows, maybe we are entering a period of inexpensive energy prices again?

[lowem]

We're still below $70 for now. If $66 wasn't it, then I'll be looking for support at $60. It's a bit tough to keep hitting 80 on the stochs, so ...

[DantesPeak]

The major media appear to be doing everything to ignore that OPEC is taking various measures to reduce oil exports in July, and also, in August.

I posted about this last Thursday, but almost no one here took notice.

UAE announced today a cutback in shipments in August, following the recent cutback in Saudi July shipments.

Perhaps the news event least noticed of all is that Iran also plans to reduce exports. It's output in May was 150,000 bpd above quota, so if it is now at quota, that is a reduction of 150,000.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ran's oil minister said Monday that it was producing in line with its OPEC output target.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Oil just bolted past $73/bbl.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'O')il just bolted past $73/bbl.