Deepwater Oil Production Growth May Stagnate on Low Prices - Bloomberg.com$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')arge Discoveries
Output in deepwater areas, or those at water depths of more than 1,000 feet (305 meters), soared in the past five years as companies discovered large deposits in Angola, Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico, Rodgers said.
The majority of deepwater areas have reached “maturity” and current projects are facing delays, he said.
Oil and gas explorers are postponing or scrapping deepwater projects, potentially reducing crude supplies by as much as 2.4 million barrels a day in 2011, Morgan Stanley said in a report in March. Oil prices in New York have declined more than 66 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July last year.
Out of a sample of 46 deepwater projects in places including Brazil, Africa, Norway, Asia and the Gulf of Mexico, about 27 may have an internal rate of return of less than 15 percent, the minimum required for international oil companies to invest in deepwater developments, according to Rodgers.
Oil must reach $50 a barrel for some developments to achieve more than 15 percent in returns, he said.
No new contracts have been awarded since August 2008 when Morgan Stanley estimated that companies needed 139 new production platforms to develop fields in deep seas. Since then, 11 orders have been canceled and 46 delayed by an average 15 months, according to last month’s Morgan Stanley report.
Worldwide spending on oil and gas exploration may drop 12 percent in 2009 to $400 billion, according to a report in December by Barclays Capital Research.