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Credit crunch impacts on production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby IslandCrow » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 03:03:15

The view from a Finnish company:- Note the Managing Director's reference to 'economic recession' http://finland.fi/stt/showarticle.asp?intNWSAID=21541&group=Business

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')innish refiner Neste Oil...........January-to-March sales fell to about 2.05 billion euros from some 3.30 billion a year ago.

"The economic recession is now clearly being reflected in lower demand for petroleum products," said in a statement Matti Lievonen, the managing director of Neste Oil.

"Oil refiners feel the impact of this clearly because the market downturn is amplified by new capacity due to come on stream this year and next year."


A 38% fall in sales is large, but the report does not describe how much is due to falling oil prices and how much is due to reduced demand.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 03:42:34

Deepwater Oil Production Growth May Stagnate on Low Prices - Bloomberg.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')arge Discoveries

Output in deepwater areas, or those at water depths of more than 1,000 feet (305 meters), soared in the past five years as companies discovered large deposits in Angola, Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico, Rodgers said.

The majority of deepwater areas have reached “maturity” and current projects are facing delays, he said.

Oil and gas explorers are postponing or scrapping deepwater projects, potentially reducing crude supplies by as much as 2.4 million barrels a day in 2011, Morgan Stanley said in a report in March. Oil prices in New York have declined more than 66 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel in July last year.

Out of a sample of 46 deepwater projects in places including Brazil, Africa, Norway, Asia and the Gulf of Mexico, about 27 may have an internal rate of return of less than 15 percent, the minimum required for international oil companies to invest in deepwater developments, according to Rodgers.

Oil must reach $50 a barrel for some developments to achieve more than 15 percent in returns, he said.

No new contracts have been awarded since August 2008 when Morgan Stanley estimated that companies needed 139 new production platforms to develop fields in deep seas. Since then, 11 orders have been canceled and 46 delayed by an average 15 months, according to last month’s Morgan Stanley report.

Worldwide spending on oil and gas exploration may drop 12 percent in 2009 to $400 billion, according to a report in December by Barclays Capital Research.
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 21:37:41

>>> Bloomberg <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Saudi Investing to Boost Oil Production, Finance Minister Says
By Camilla Hall and Bob Willis

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is investing to increase oil production capacity to provide for the global economy when it starts to recover from the economic crisis, the finance minister said.

“Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world that’s now investing in oil capacity and more refining capacity,” Finance Minister Ibrahim Abdel Aziz al-Assaf said at a conference in Washington today. “I’m sure that this investment will come in handy when the world economy starts recovering.”

Saudi Arabia has said that it will spend $400 billion, mostly on infrastructure projects, over the next five years to stimulate the economy and create jobs. The fiscal stimulus plan next year will consume 3.5 percent of gross domestic product.

[...]
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 21:42:42

>>> Rigzone <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Bohai Phase II Project in China to Begin Producing in 2Q
by Isabel Ordonez
Dow Jones Newswires
Friday, April 24, 2009

Several platforms of ConocoPhillips's (COP) Bohai Phase II project in China are already operational and will start oil and gas production in "a couple of months," said a top executive.

[...]

Phase II of the project, which was scheduled to start production early 2009, includes the installation of five additional drilling and production platforms, drilling more than 200 wells and the construction of one of the world's largest floating production, storage and offloading vessels. Production of the Peng Lai project should increase to 50,000 barrels of oil per day in 2010 and 70,000 barrels of oil per day in 2011.

[...]
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 21:57:57

:lol: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', 'C')onsumer = "70% of GDP". You need more than that to understand that, without the "consumer," your credit crunch will not end?
In the words of the Vancome Lady: "La la la la la la la I do not hear you la la la la la."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Finder of Lost Loves and Oil2', 'P')lace all news about oil/gas production, drilling and exploration plans proceeding or increasing here.
Yeah right. Very productive if you have nothing better to do, but you'd as well just check the front page of RIGZONE.
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Apr 2009, 22:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'Y')eah right. Very productive if you have nothing better to do, but you'd as well just check the front page of RIGZONE.

Agreed. But you could also just check out the front page of Rigzone to get the information in the "other" thread too. :wink: Plus lots of people here wouldn't be caught dead checking out an industry website anyway; :wink:
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 11:41:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')lus lots of people here wouldn't be caught dead checking out an industry website anyway; :wink:


Your making a rather huge mistake with that little quip OF. Most of us know how and where to get credible data these days. We are not doomers because we want to be. :cry:
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 11:57:17

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article165051.ece

"Oilfield services giant Schlumberger warned today that the credit crisis and softening global economy would dampen energy spending into next year."
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 02 May 2009, 17:39:54

It's official: The credit crunch is easing in the oil & gas patch:

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Is The Credit Crisis Easing In The Energy Patch?
May 01, 2009 | By Eric Fox

Several announcements from exploration and production companies regarding credit issues seem to indicate an easing of the credit crisis, removing a major concern of investors and possibly indicating that the group won't see its lows again this cycle

[...]

Bottom Line
Exploration and production companies are especially vulnerable to credit availability because of the large amount of capital expenditures the industry must reinvest into developing its oil and gas properties. Unlike the integrated oil companies, they don't have other less cyclical segments, like refining and marketing or chemicals, to fall back on for earnings when commodity prices fall. However, the credit panic in the oil patch seems to be abating as evidenced by recent announcements from several exploration and production companies. Restrictions in credit and capital have accelerated the large drop in drilling in North America during the current cycle, and it is a relief for investors to see this problem start to recede.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 03 May 2009, 01:31:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')
Several announcements from exploration and production companies regarding credit issues seem to indicate an easing of the credit crisis, removing a major concern of investors and possibly indicating that the group won't see its lows again this cycle




DO we need a dictionary again OF???

Seem: To appear to one's own opinion or mind
Possibly: Of uncertain likelihood.

The key point being here that there is no concrete evidence given. This is the writers opinion. In case you haven't noticed many opinions lately have been completely off base and driven more by "wishing and hoping" (or pumping) than common sense or fact finding. I put it to you to PROVE that this is actually the case and that INDEPENDENT analysis supports such "announcements from exploration and production companies".

Do you not even see the possible credibility issues there?? The preponderance of evidence available from well known sources NOT ATTACHED to companies suggests this opinion piece is badly flawed.
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 03 May 2009, 01:39:54

Drilling of oil and gas wells is expected to plunge 41% in Canada in 2009


The number of new oil and gas wells to be drilled in Canada will drop by 41% to 10,000 this year as low prices and capital worries hammer the country's
oilfield service sector, an industry association forecast yesterday. Drilling activity has plunged to the lowest level since 1999 as weak commodity prices
convince oil and gas companies to husband their cash and restrain exploration budgets until higher prices return, the Petroleum Services Association of
Canada said. The new estimate is down from an earlier forecast for 2009, issued in January, when the association estimated that 13,500 wells would be drilled, itself a big drop from the 16,940 wells completed last year. "Demand is down, commodity prices are low, and access to capital is limited, which, in addition to other factors, has caused exploration and production companies to significantly pull back their spending," said Roger Soucy, PSAC's president.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-pape ... id=1551349
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 01:57:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')eem: To appear to one's own opinion or mind
Possibly: Of uncertain likelihood.
Not this accusation again. :roll: If I had a dime for every time a peaker stated a "prediction" or qualified some statement with "could" or "might" or "seems" or "may" I would be rich.
Oil production may have peaked in 2005 (it didn't)
Oil production might have peaked in 2008 (who knows?)
Oil project X could be canceled because of low oil prices.

And blah blah blah with a zillion other examples. :roll:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')he key point being here that there is no concrete evidence given.
On the contrary, he did give a few examples of exploration companies being extended credit. He probably could have cited more if he wanted, but a few were probably sufficient to make his case.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')his is the writers opinion.

And peakers never post articles with people's opinions? LOL!! :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')n case you haven't noticed many opinions lately have been completely off base and driven more by "wishing and hoping" (or pumping) than common sense or fact finding.

Yeah, like $300 oil is just around the corner!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') put it to you to PROVE that this is actually the case and that INDEPENDENT analysis supports such "announcements from exploration and production companies".
Do you not even see the possible credibility issues there?? The preponderance of evidence available from well known sources NOT ATTACHED to companies suggests this opinion piece is badly flawedAre you telling me this is a lie?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')abot Oil and Gas (NYSE:COG) just announced a new credit line with its lenders, and the company now has a $500 million unsecured credit line with a three-year term. Its borrowing base is now $1.35 billion, and the company's available credit is at $450 million.
Your whole accusation, frankly, is dumb. There is no clear line between "the credit crunch is still with us" and "the credit crunch is over." How and where would you draw the line? What would be your measure? Therefore it would be impossible to PROVE such a thing anyway (either way). I could ask you to PROVE that the credit crunch was still crippling the energy industry with INDEPENDENT analyses and blah blah blah and you would not be able to do so, because for every piece of evidence you provided I could post a countering piece of evidence.
Last edited by copious.abundance on Sun 03 May 2009, 02:32:00, edited 2 times in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 02:00:18

>>> WSJ <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')AY 1, 2009, 3:41 P.M. ET
Despite Slump, Major US Oil Cos Forge Ahead With Investment

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The weak quarterly results of major U.S. oil companies show they are not immune to lower oil and gas prices and the economic downturn. But their decision to keep investing billions in capital projects reflects optimism about an eventual rebound in energy markets.

These companies' commitment to long-haul projects, although key to shoring up their hydrocarbons production and reserves, comes at a price: fewer perks for shareholders in terms of dividend increases and share buybacks, and an increase in debt as lower revenues result in constrained cash flows.

"We do have a strong capital program, that's where our ...

EDIT: Full article can be read here.
Last edited by copious.abundance on Sun 03 May 2009, 02:23:45, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 02:08:49

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]CNOOC Increases Production by 15%, Completes Quarter with 7 Discoveries
Wednesday, April 29, 2009

CNOOC announced its total daily net production of 566,860 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) for the first quarter of 2009, representing an increase of 15.0% year-on-year (YOY).

Benefiting from the production contribution of Platform B of Penglai 19-3 Phase II, Xijiang 23-1 and Wenchang oilfields, the Company's production of crude oil and liquids amounted to 468,535 barrels per day, an increase of 19.7% YOY. During the quarter, the Company's net gas production reached 563 million cubic feet per day. Our net production overseas increased by 30.9% YOY to 31,481 barrels per day, mainly attributable to production from Northwest Shelf Project in Australia and OML 130 in Nigeria.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 02:13:32

>>> Rigzone <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]US Bank Approves $2B Line of Credit for Petrobras
Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Petrobras informs that, on April 14, 2009, Export-Import Bank of the United States (U.S. Ex-Im Bank) approved a Preliminary Commitment (PC) to Petrobras in support of the export of U.S. goods and services in connection with Petrobras new exploration and development activities, as well as upgrades and expansions of its existing facilities.

Petrobras can withdraw separate lines with different tenors in the next two years to finance the import of U.S. services and equipments, following the conditions established in the PC. The total financed amount approved in the PC is US $2 billion and the maximum repayment term is 10 years.

This approval demonstrates diverse sources of funding available to the Company to finance its Investment Plan.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 02:19:32

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]LINN Energy Closes $1.75B Credit Facility
Tuesday, April 28, 2009

LINN Energy has entered into a new $1.75 billion secured revolving credit facility with a $1.75 billion initial borrowing base, with BNP Paribas as administrative agent; Royal Bank of Canada as syndication agent; and Barclays, Calyon, Citibank and Royal Bank of Scotland as co-documentation agents. The new facility extends the maturity more than three years, to August 1, 2012. The Company anticipates undrawn capacity of approximately $300 million for the balance of the year, including net cash on its balance sheet. The covenants of the new credit facility are substantially unchanged from the prior facility.

[...]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Cabot O&G Completes New $500MM Credit Facility
Monday, April 27, 2009

Cabot Oil & Gas announced the completion of a new $500 million unsecured Revolving Credit Facility with a three-year term. Additionally, the Company announced that the borrowing base, which governs debt limits under the facility, now totals $1.35 billion.

"Both the credit facility and the borrowing base reflect an increase of $150 million from levels under our previous facility," said Dan O. Dinges, Chairman, President and CEO. "What speaks highly of Cabot's strength is that even in this difficult financing market, we had four new institutions provide commitments."

[...]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]BNK Closes Debt Financing, Increasing Line to $29.5MM
Friday, April 24, 2009

BNK Petroleum Inc. has closed its previously announced $50 million senior advancing line of credit facility (Facility) with Wells Fargo Energy Capital, Inc.

The Facility, which will replace BNK's existing $7 million credit line, has an initial borrowing base of $29.5 million. The Facility, which is secured by the Company's properties in the Tishomingo Field, Oklahoma, matures in 24 months and bears interest at US base rate plus 3% and includes overriding royalties and net profit interests. The proceeds from the Facility will be used for working capital and to complete the balance of BNK's wells that have been drilled but not yet fracture stimulated.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 May 2009, 02:26:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '&')gt;>> WSJ <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')AY 1, 2009, 3:41 P.M. ET
Despite Slump, Major US Oil Cos Forge Ahead With Investment

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The weak quarterly results of major U.S. oil companies show they are not immune to lower oil and gas prices and the economic downturn. But their decision to keep investing billions in capital projects reflects optimism about an eventual rebound in energy markets.

[...]

EDIT: Full article can be read here.

And incidentally:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Despite weak earnings, the three U.S. majors see a bright spot in today's grim economic environment: rapidly dropping costs for materials and oil services.

Lower-than-expected costs helped boost ConocoPhillips' earnings, and continued renegotiations with suppliers could enable Big Oil to maximize the effectiveness of its capital spending.

"We're seeing some decline in vendor rates and material prices flowing through to our operating expenses," said David Rosenthal, Exxon Mobil's vice president of investors relations, in a conference call.

Chevron's Yarrington said that the steep drop in costs, which has ranged from 10% to 60% in some contracts, is expected to accelerate.

The company has had "1,000 individual meetings with key suppliers" to renegotiate contracts, she said. "We're working very hard to secure lower costs."

A recession can actually do some good sometimes.
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: End-of-credit-crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 03 May 2009, 03:30:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here is no clear line between "the credit crunch is still with us" and "the credit crunch is over." How and where would you draw the line? What would be your measure? Therefore it would be impossible to PROVE such a thing anyway (either way). I could ask you to PROVE that the credit crunch was still crippling the energy industry with INDEPENDENT analyses and blah blah blah and you would not be able to do so, because for every piece of evidence you provided I could post a countering piece of evidence.


There is and will continue to be a credit crisis as long as the large lender banks/ institutions/ and CB's around the world are allowed to collude with their governments to hide worthless assets which mount into the tens of trillions. The reality despite your small attempts at proving otherwise is that the majority of the industry is in deep trouble. Capital preservation is currently the name of the game, and future production will suffer due to what I laid out above. The facts about the banks are available many places and the effects of this crisis will affect current and future production significantly.

Its not just oil companies OF, its most if not all major industries which require future capital through lending. This is changing, its changing drastically whether you acknowledge it or not and it will detrimentally affect oil production. You can trade articles all day long with me but in the end math rules. The risk aversion to lending is going to far outweigh the few smaller sideshows you can find to attempt to prove otherwise.

There is no way that the current lending/banking crisis can have any effect which is positive on companies or industries which require the ability to finance large sums of capital with leverage and low risk. The oil industry knows it and as we move forward past the peak that particular issue becomes worse as the dollars required become larger and the risk grows due to the volatility of crude.

Choose to dismiss it as you will. I do not and am willing to see the reality versus the fantasy.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 03 May 2009, 03:52:00

Williams Cos Deems PDVSA in Default, Plans Write-Down

The announcement highlights the dire situation of the Venezuelan state oil company, which has fallen behind on payments to firms operating its drilling
platforms as revenue has plummeted on lower oil prices and declining crude exports. As of September, the latest available figures for PdVSA's finances,
the company owed about $7.9 billion to suppliers, a 39% jump from the same nine-month period the year before, but many believe the figure is now much
higher. In addition to managing the South American country's oil production, the company is in charge of various social spending programs. Declining investment in oil extraction has led to a plunge in PdVSA's production levels, analysts say.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=75615
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