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1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 12:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') think it's also worth repeating, from time to time, that OF2 does not want any mitigation actions to occur, even if he does realise that peak is close. He doesn't think human societies should ever prepare for scenarios that they may deduce, from time to time. He thinks adaptation at the time the problem arises, is the best course. OF2 wants us to treat natural limits in the same way we would some unanticipated natural disasters (like asteroid strikes, supervolcanoes, etc). This almost certainly goes for climate change mitigation also.

So readers of his posts should understand that his goal is that we should never mitigate against future problems.
So OF2 believes not only are there no problems but that one should not prepare for, or attempt to alleviate such non-problems? Isn't that the philosophy of the cricket? But they make such pretty music and this guy is a dud (intonationally, of course).

More falsities. I've explained this probably a dozen times, but for those who have short memories or haven't read those dozen times, here is my stance:

1. There is plenty of oil left in the ground. Really! This can also be extracted at sufficient rates to keep things going for quite a while.

2. Whenever in the future oil does, in fact, start to become scarce and production peaks, the price will gradually go higher. As the price goes higher, people will start to switch to other things. Teslas, Chevy Volts and Honda Civic GX's will be flying off the shelves. In addition to my efforts to show that plenty of oil is being discovered, in case some of you haven't paid attention, I've also been *trying* to show everyone that there are gobs of natural gas on the planet. NG makes a perfectly good transportation fuel. So as oil starts to become more and more expensive, you will see a gradual rise in the # of electric and NG vehicles.

3. Although there is nothing wrong with government action, strictly speaking I do not think it's necessary. A rising price of oil alone will be a more-than-sufficient catalyst for the items in #2.

4. In the very long term (like, a hundred years from now), my WAG is that we'll gradually transition to something like a fusion-hydrogen based energy system, but I know you guys just love to talk about that. :razz:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 12:38:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'H')uh? Dude, respond to the info I posted please. Does or does not Estonia generate a vast majority of its electricity from Oil Shale? We can have a healthy debate on whether or not Oil Shale will be a viable fuel (I say it will at some point with a techno breakthrough) but what is perfectly clear is Oil Shale IS a viable energy source.

You dissapoint me dude, you use to be a nearly reasonable poster, but lately you seemed to have gone off to the Lunatic Fringe. :cry: [smilie=dontknow.gif] [smilie=eusa_doh.gif] [smilie=eusa_pray.gif] [smilie=new_silly.gif] [smilie=new_rainfro.gif]
TheDude does not need to grace this troll with his presence. Our cars, trucks, diesel locomotives, ships, planes runs on liquid fuel. That is the topic of this discussion. Not making electricity out of potatoes or dirty rocks.

I will make you a bet Anti. If you can show an example of your Estonian Shale turned into gasoline then you may continue to post on this thread and I will award you the coveted 'Poster of the Year' award. Are you ready for your golden sticky star? Get to Anti. Prove the Doomers wrong.

If you fail you must leave though. Forever.


Never said that estonia was making gasoline pstarr, try READING my post. I was only pointing out that the Estonia shale is already a signifigant energy source. I'll let time and technology determine whether its used to make gasoline, but hey even if its not its still a HUGE source of energy.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 16:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'M')ore falsities.
No falsities. You've made it quite clear that you don't support any mitigation strategies, only after the fact adaptation strategies. In part, you have a strong belief that markets will "naturally" adapt to resource limits, without the need for specific societal strategies to deal with them. That belief underpins your loathing of mitigation but it is only a belief. I've no doubt that if limits start to affect you personally, you will wish you hadn't been so pig headed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '1'). There is plenty of oil left in the ground. Really! This can also be extracted at sufficient rates to keep things going for quite a while.
That is purely a belief. You have not shown this belief to be reality. Nor do you define "plenty" or "things".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')In addition to my efforts to show that plenty of oil is being discovered
You've made great efforts but all you've shown is that discoveries are continuing to lag production (particularly this year where 0 billion barrels have been discovered so far, to the nearest billion, according to your catalog thread).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')lthough there is nothing wrong with government action, strictly speaking I do not think it's necessary
Thanks for confirming what I stated about your position.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')n the very long term (like, a hundred years from now), my WAG is that we'll gradually transition to something like a fusion-hydrogen based energy system, but I know you guys just love to talk about that. :razz:Have faith. You never know, if you have any descendants, they may wonder at your future gazing abilities.

All this tells me that you don't recognize limits, thinking of them only as opportunities. Readers of your posts should be aware that you believe the world has, effectively, infinite resources.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 16:12:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'w')hat is perfectly clear is Oil Shale IS a viable energy source
That's not clear at all. If it is damaging the environment in the way Dude suggests, then it is not viable at all. The fact that it's being used is only one factor in its viability.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 22:49:21

One way or another they'll figure out a cheap way to tap this baby. 8)

>>> OGJ <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Heater cable used for shale oil recovery
Nick Snow
OGJ Washington Editor

WASHINGTON, DC, Apr. 7 -- A technology as simple as an advanced heater cable could hold the key to tapping vast US oil shale resources without mining, the US Department of Energy's Fossil Energy Office said.

Composite Technology Development Inc., a Lafayette, Colo., engineering and technology development company, has demonstrated the application of a ceramic-composite insulated cable for oil shale recovery, DOE said.

"With DOE's support over two phases of this project, CTD has demonstrated a way to tap into the western oil shale resources. With two-thirds of the world's supply of oil shale in the United States, technologies such as this can go a long way toward bolstering the development of our domestic energy resources, creating jobs, and supporting energy security," said Victor K. Der, acting assistant US energy secretary for fossil energy.

DOE said CTD researchers tested its cable for 5,000 continuous hours at temperatures of 760-850° C. During tests, the cable overcame many limitations of existing cables including conductor instability, moisture-induced degradation, and operating temperatures.

CTD's work was done as a small business innovation research project through the Fossil Energy Office's oil and gas program, and the project was managed by DOE's National Energy Technology Laboratory.

CTD's heater cable test holds promise for in-situ heating of the shale oil to a depth of 5,000 ft, separating the kerogen without having to mine the rock, DOE said. If underground tests of the cable succeed, operators could extract a petroleum-like liquid fluid enough to be pumped to the surface, it said.

Such a process could cut shale oil recovery costs in half and address environmental impacts by eliminating mining and part of the large-scale processing associated with current oil shale technology, according to DOE.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby Vogelzang » Thu 09 Apr 2009, 19:24:51

Oil shale in Estonia.

http://www.fileden.com/files/2008/8/24/ ... stonia.pdf (10.7 MB)

Fossil fuels will continue to be used in spite of the paranoid masterbation on this forum.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 09 Apr 2009, 19:41:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vogelzang', 'O')il shale in Estonia.

http://www.fileden.com/files/2008/8/24/ ... stonia.pdf (10.7 MB)

Fossil fuels will continue to be used in spite of the paranoid masterbation on this forum.
So? Who said they wouldn't?
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby Oerdin » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 01:35:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', '1').53 Trillion...that is a lot of oil! Good news indeed.

Of course the 2nd paragraph does say: "There is no economically viable method of extracting it" - but why let things like that get in the way. :P

On the other hand, perhaps someone will one day figure out a way to get at it.


Shale oil can be extracted using almost the exact same methods used to mine oil sands. The size of the git particles are smaller then grains of sand though so it will take longer to separate the oil and settle out the fines which means costs will be higher. Currently the oil sands are profitable at around $70 a barrel so it seems reasonable that this would be profitable at $80-$90 a barrel as a ball park figure provided enough water is around to proceed with these process.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby rangerone314 » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 13:07:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'H')uh? Dude, respond to the info I posted please. Does or does not Estonia generate a vast majority of its electricity from Oil Shale? We can have a healthy debate on whether or not Oil Shale will be a viable fuel (I say it will at some point with a techno breakthrough) but what is perfectly clear is Oil Shale IS a viable energy source.

You dissapoint me dude, you use to be a nearly reasonable poster, but lately you seemed to have gone off to the Lunatic Fringe. :cry:


Question... define "viable energy source".

How viable is it when it seems to require VAST amounts of water? I think 90% of Estonia's water usage comes from using oil shale. And exactly HOW much water do we have out in western US? And we're not already having water issues in the US? (Probably to be exacerbated further by global warming, population increase & immigration)

I'm sure deuterium and tritium will be "viable energy sources" when fusion is developed. In 200 years. Until then things like anti-matter, fusion and oil shale will be science fiction.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 15:41:46

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]General Synfuels to Test Oil Shale Technology in Wyoming and Colorado
Company predicts breakthrough technology will drastically cut oil shale recovery costs and minimize environmental impacts

BOSTON, April 27 /PRNewswire/ -- General Synfuels International (GSI) - a wholly-owned subsidiary of Earth Search Sciences, Inc., (OTCBulletinBoard: ESSE) - today announced the company has secured an exploration agreement for lands in Wyoming and rights to a separate oil shale resource opportunity in Colorado. Collectively, the agreements will allow the company to test and develop the company's patented technology to recover hydrocarbons from oil shale, oil sands and heavy oil using its patented process that prioritizes environmental sensitivity.

The exploration agreement with a subsidiary of Anadarko Petroleum Corporation in Wyoming covers approximately 160 acres near Rock Springs on a Union Pacific Railroad section upon which GSI plans to carry out its proof-of-concept test under stringent environmental guidelines.

The Colorado opportunity provides GSI access to approximately 500 acres of private, oil-shale-rich land in the Piceance Basin, with the potential - based upon core analysis and geologic data - to recover approximately 700 million barrels of oil, or oil equivalents, in the near term. GSI believes results should be known within the next 24 months. The company is also evaluating an additional 2,500 acres of oil shale mineral rights in the same area of Colorado and is in the process of investigating how many barrels of oil are in place.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 15:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')ho the f#ck is Earth Search Sciences, Inc.?

A penny stock.

Their partner in the project is Anadarko. Andarko is a big company.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 22:53:30

OF,

Call us back in 50 years when this is actually producing measurable commercial quantities of usable Kerogen for refining.
Make sure you read that statement carefully. My educated and objective guess at the moment is that it takes at least that long
and it may never actually work out.

You need to add another definition to your reportoire:

Stock pumping.

You don't recognize it when it's plain as the nose on your cornucopian face.
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 22:56:04

I own no stock in any company anywhere.

And I'm sure this company is lying about their test. :roll:

Try again!

:o
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 1.53 Trillion Barrels of Oil

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Apr 2009, 23:06:31

And if I may say so . . .

You "oil shale will never happen" crowd are taking a huge risk in your nonstop proclamations that oil shale is never going to happen. Why? Because if it does someday happen, you will never hear the end of it from us Cornucopians. Your nonstop and incessant claims about its lack of viability will discredit your own movement even more than it already has if and when they start turning this stuff into gasoline and cars start running on it. One would think y'all would have learned the lesson to "never say never" after so many of you last spring and summer said that oil would "never" go below $100 again. But it looks like you haven't.

But hey, if you want to set yourself up for a potential big embarrassment, go ahead! :razz:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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