by TheDude » Fri 03 Apr 2009, 18:06:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') agree there is a lot of misinformed hype surrounding the numbers on the Green River shale. But that number does make a nice, eye-catching thread title.

At any rate, let's say that, in 10 years, they can manage to coax out a half-million bpd from the Green River shale. A half-million bpd addition to US production would be a really, really nice addition. A million would be even better. This would not "solve" the US's energy imports problem, but it would alleviate it noticeably.

I've posted tons of material on the unfeasability of recovering kerogen here. You realize this area is extremely arid, right? And even Shell's process would be very water-intensive.
Study: 50-50 chance of dry Lake Mead in 2021 - Climate Change- msnbc.com$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')snbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 10:57 a.m. PT, Tues., Feb. 12, 2008
What are the chances that Lake Mead, a key source of water for more than 22 million people in the Southwest, would ever go dry? A new study says it's 50 percent by 2021 if warming continues and water use is not curtailed.
"We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was coming at us," co-author Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said in a statement. "Make no mistake, this water problem is not a scientific abstraction, but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest."
"It's likely to mean real changes to how we live and do business in this region," added co-author David Pierce, a Scripps climate scientist.
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The experts estimated that the Colorado River system, which feeds Lake Mead and Lake Powell, is seeing a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year — an amount that can supply some 8 million people. That water is not being replenished, they noted, and human demand, evaporation and human-induced climate change are fueling the growing deficit.
Resistance from citizenry makes the whole idea of processing shale a non-starter. Like Randy Udall said, we'd be better off rendering down Cap'n Crunch, and this is the water supply for the SW in toto we're talking about - you'd face a unified front all the way to San Diego howling about loss of hydro generation and drinking water.
You and your Bakken, too. Feel free to update my chart:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he infrastructure costs are enormous though. The vaunted N. Dakota Bakken Formation which has been so much in the news lately are running 20 stage frac jobs which requires staggering horsepower from compressors and mighty piles of sand to complete the wells. A well drilling and completion can easily run $5 million. Initial production can be high, on the order of 800 bbl/day but that decline is very steep and rapid. You have to drill as fast as you can just to stay flat after the initial runup and
A very large proportion of the Bakken wells are not making money in the present price and many companies are critically over extended and having financial stress because of their recent Bakken investments. We're on the verge of an experiment in massive investment that will be a failure unless price comes up and soon.