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THE Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 11 Apr 2009, 19:00:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
I have no objection to listening to all evidence on the topic, if you have more to add from your personal experience?
Mike Lynch. Ha ha ha.


Recheck the link I provided. It wasn't written by Lynch, it was written by professionals in the field of reservoir engineering, the type of guys who write the SPE papers which Simmons doesn't appear to understand.

Do you have any experience pertinent to the conversation to rebut those particular experts, or do you just wish to note that Mike Lynch also knows the difference between accountants and actual professionals in the given field?
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 11 Apr 2009, 19:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Matt is fine when he talks in generalities about the future, but he's got to stop making very specific short-term predictions otherwise he's just as bad as Cramer.


I think it's too late. You only get a few shots at the "we can only pray!!" routine, or the "$200 oil and $40/natural gas is right around the corner!" before people start remembering the LAST time you pulled that stunt.

I don't think its real. Simmons is a smart man, well educated, talks well. His experience in finance is undoubtedly close enough to oilfield work to understand the basics, see the wheels all in motion as it were, but because he only defends and focuses on increases, it is extremely suspicious. It doesn't require a genius to realize that a single recession has the capability to blow a whole in wild price increases, we have plenty of examples in history showing just that, and we're in the middle of another one. Plenty of people even around here in this hobbyist oil group saw the pieces of this one coming a mile away...for Simmons NOT to have seen it, or to be PRETENDING not to see it, means there is something else in the mix affecting his uni-directional and often outrageous calls.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 11 Apr 2009, 20:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Short, I actually just looked at the paper. Did you? Care to discuss it? Or are you going to just take JD's word for it veracity?


I don't take JD's word for anything more than I would yours. But on the topic of that particular paper, I've gone through most of it, yes. Challenging its technical aspects I would leave to other experts in the field of course, but I haven't seen Simmons rebuttal to it specifically. Is there one you are aware of? I would love to see that as well.

It strikes me as reasonable, specific on its critique of what Simmons did, and did not, apparently mention in his book, and provided quite some decent explanations for how things work in that industry. Fascinating stuff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')Curious. Do you actually know what you are talking about?


I wasn't TALKING about anything, I was referring to a rebuttal of Simmon's book by people who aren't accountants, and their critique of his work.

But sure, I'll TALK about anything if you'd like.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')
I'm referring to this: Another Day in the Desert: A Response to the Book, "Twilight in the Desert" by Jim Jarrell did you read it? Do you know why it did not make much of an impression?


For YOU? No...but let me venture the following guess before you reveal why its a bad rebuttal.

Point A )

I am going to speculate that whatever the reason is you don't like this article, it will have NOTHING to do with the technical aspects contained therein. You won't be able to deny a word of what was written on any technical or factual grounds whatsoever, neither through your personal experience in this field, nor through googling a planets worth of facts on the topic.

Point B)

Instead, you will focus on some hidden, implicit meaning which is multi-interpretational and minor, to try and claim that the same angle of interpretation will discredit the all, perhaps some conspiracy of personnel, some item as to funding or relationships which you will attempt to maneuver into position to discount the article wholesale, because of your inability to utilize any attack directly on Point A.


So please, tell me why this article doesn't make an impression on you, as I test my prognostication ability.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 11 Apr 2009, 21:56:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')hortonbrains, I will summarize what is wrong with Jarrell's piece: It assumes Saudi Arabia tells the truth.


You have experience with Saudi Arabian oilfield management which shows they AREN'T telling the truth? It strikes me that time alone is rendering Mr. Simmons opinion on a topic outside of his field of expertise as moot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')I will summarize what is wrong with your critique of Simmons: It's vacuous.


My critique of Simmons is his encouraging the idea that energy prices are ALWAYS trending higher into catastrophy for financial benefit.

The critique of Simmons by the professionals is, and I quote,

"Jarrell argues that the process used by Mr. Simmons to arrive at his conclusions was impaired by oncorrect interpretation of reservoir engineering concepts and common oilfield operations."

I see no reference to Saudi Arabia in that statement, only what might be expected when an accountant pretends his accounting experience somehow naturally lends him credibility in another field of specialty, in this case reservoir engineering.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')So far all you offer are ad hominems and distractions.


Now you are being disingenuous. I maintain that Simmons has a financial upside to people believing him. Do you believe that a banker in the energy business DOESN'T have a vested interest in higher prices, and the belief that even higher prices are right around the corner?

Jarrell maintains that Simmons doesn't know much about reservoir engineering and his conclusions are impaired because of lack of expertise, and lack of knowledge of common oilfield practice.

Do you have anything at all to disquality the EXPERT opinion offered up by Mr Jarrell besides accusing ME of distractions? Beyond blaming Saudi Arabia for Mr Simmons impairment in the expertise department?
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 00:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')o I do not have experience with SA oilfield management but I can read studies and interpret results. I'll make it easy for you. Go here: Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Reserves Propaganda


Interesting...so now you want to use someone with a degree in electrical engineering and who is a "professional" investor to play reservoir engineering expert? Okay...I'll bite.

He has an absolutely fascinating scheme which, as best I can tell, doesn't say anything about the water handling issues which appear to terrorize Simmons, doesn't quote any reservoir engineering textbook in his references but certainly uses ASPO propoganda and Simmons own discredited work, doesn't think that recovery factors can exceed some worldwide average when in fact they do right here in the US with much tougher oil than what the Saudi's are dealing with in Ghawar.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I saw nothing about the probabilistic methods used to estimate these answers by the engineers, but which Ace's comments excluded completely, Saleri is quoted by Jarrell but certainly not by Ace ( why would you ignore such an experienced detractor unless you can't answer his claims? ), no one mentions the mid-1990's decline which was expected but Saudi reservoir people stopped from happening, a good indication that they were on the ball much better than Ace gives them credit for by IGNORING this feat, and the kicker?

Jarrell concludes that Saudi estimates are at least as conservative as US SPE proven reserves...and yet Ace says nothing about this PROFESSIONAL certification of those numbers, rather than taking what is publically available and messing up the definitions involved, as Jarrell has said Simmons has done.

Call me crazy, but I'll still take the professionals who do this for a living over investors who think ASPO qualifies as a source of objective information. That should have been a giveaway right there, based on past antics of that gang.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 13:42:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are a broken record: a man's formal training is no measure of his success. George W. Bush went to Yale. Steve Jobs did not graduate.


George W became President Of The United States, Steve Jobs hawks plastic trinkets to a consumerist society. Now, to you, hawking plastic trinkets has a higher value in this world than leading the free world, protecting you, me, and everyone else under the umbrella of American security? Wow PStarr.....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')The article in question shows how and why SA lied about its own OOIP, remaining reserves, cumulative production, URR, and recovery factor.


The article doesn't SHOW anything, it uses some interesting political information, the natural bias of ASPO and pretends Simmons is a source of information rather than referring directly to the SPE papers which Simmons claims is the key to all knowledge. In so doing, it appears to ignore the reality referenced by Jarrell. Did you actually READ the article I referenced? It does address points such as these, which Ace apparently ignored, as do you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
') And thus the article makes a lie of Farrell's paper which depends on erroneous SA figures and by implications, CERA's conclusion that Simmons is wrong. You are wrong for defending the nonsence.


Who is Farrell? Oh....and I've quoted nothing from CERA, why would you bring them up? I certainly haven't.

Is there any reason why you haven't discounted, or found someone with expertise in the field, who has discounted Jarrell's work?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')Yes you are crazy. And yes, ASPO is an objective source of petroleum information. They have access to the Petroconsultants/IHS database, the finest in the world


Would you like to bet Jarrell had access to it, whereas Ace, and Simmons, do not? And no, Aaron and I went round and round about ASPO propoganda and their misrepresentation of basic science information from other sources. They either did it on purpose, or because they aren't particularly capable in the field either. I still don't know which, I just know it is wrong, so that hardly qualifies them as a quality source when they can't even handle the same basic probabilistic theory which Jarrell references, and next neither Ace, nor ASPO, can attempt.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 16:54:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eorge W became President Of The United States, Steve Jobs hawks plastic trinkets to a consumerist society.


G.W. was (and probably still is) a pathetic, moronic drunk, who was shoved through Yale by his family money that Preston Bush, his grandfather, began acquiring by loaning money to the Nazi High Command during WWII.

Steve Jobs is one of the most brilliant, inventive personalities of the last century.

Got any other heroes to throw onto this pile? How about Harry, Larry and Moe. They fit right in with the last one!



PStarr, after reading this entire thread I would estimate that this guy’s entire working knowledge of the oil industry could be written on the back of a postage stamp, with a crayon. He’s either got an agenda, is and idiot, or a troll.




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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 18:19:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eorge W became President Of The United States, Steve Jobs hawks plastic trinkets to a consumerist society.


G.W. was (and probably still is) a pathetic, moronic drunk, who was shoved through Yale by his family money that Preston Bush, his grandfather, began acquiring by loaning money to the Nazi High Command during WWII.


He is also the person a majority of the country decided was better than a global warming advocate and a Vietnam era war hero. I recognize that this is effectively the "McDonalds hamburger" argument of popularity, but it is what it is.

I find your adjectives interesting of course, he might have once been a drunk but I haven't seen any evidence that this was consistent behavior in his later years any more than that dopehead Clinton stinking up the place with weed smoke and roach clips. And I have more confidence in Yale's system of merit than you do apparently, knowing more than a few Ivy Leaguers, including some who failed and their family couldn't save them, nor could their money.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')Steve Jobs is one of the most brilliant, inventive personalities of the last century.


Who's brilliance and genius revolves around selling trendy electronic gizmo's to consumers who really ought not to buy them, just like you could argue that people shouldn't have voted for George.

To bad Jobs couldn't prove his metal by doing something of value to society rather than just making a mint feeding Americans more baser instincts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')PStarr, after reading this entire thread I would estimate that this guy’s entire working knowledge of the oil industry could be written on the back of a postage stamp, with a crayon. He’s either got an agenda, is and idiot, or a troll.


Wow...you sound WAY down on Simmons even more than I am! :-D
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 19:57:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
And that makes him an idiot and a troll. 8)


I find this turn of events quite surprising.

The topic is, why is simmons wrong.

Simmons wrote a book about the collapse of Saudi production.

It was refuted by actual experts, with experience DOING and WRITING the articles which Simmons claims to have relied on.

To refute the actual experts in the field, someone who posts at TOD and is an "investor", is offered up as rebuttal. Said "investor" does an analysis which boils down to, "the politically released numbers from Saudi Arabia are suspicious and wrong", while not adding the corollary, "the last half decade of continued high production not withstanding".

Not a single comment from the rebuttal expert on how those experts were wrong. Or where. Or on what particulars. Just an analysis of information which everyone at every PO site the world over has already recognized as bad, politically derived information. I suppose garbage in, garbage out, is a foreign concept to some people.

And me noticing all of this, what appears to be relatively obvious information, marks me as an idiot, or a troll.

I think I now understand EXACTLY what is going on. Sorry for interrupting your church service PStarr, I shall saunter off to another topic now.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 23:43:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You found one person (jarrel or something) never published before, hasn't published since, paid by CERA to trash Simmons, using data supplied by the Saudi Princes that has been proven wrong by substantial peer-reviewed process, to support you contention that Simmons is what?

give it up Shitforbrains. no one wants to hear you pap :twisted:


When Simmons gains the experience in reserve evaluation and reservoir engineering that this man has in his little finger, let me know.

http://www.rseg.com/bio/11/

In the meantime, in order to not disturb your belief system, I will do my best to restrict the use of any objective or scientifically factual information, any references to actual experts or articles, or the use of any logic or deductive reasoning, to topics not in the "true believers only, no actual information allowed" category.
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Re: Why Simmons is Wrong about Peak Oil

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 13 Apr 2009, 08:26:59

I'm not an expert on oil reserve management and I'm just moderately versed in finance, but I am a practiced observer & expert on human nature.

It seems to me very likely Simmons has a financial stake in overstating the truth. It also seems likely that the Saudis are lying, since they have a financial stake in lying about the size of their oil reserves & capabilites. You can't count on your best friend not to nail your wife, and you can't count on the government to save you, but you can count on people to lie to get ahead.

Trying to guess a particular oil price for a particular date is like trying to play pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey when you don't even know what zipcode the donkey is in.

Probably best to stick to what IS known. Oil will more than likely peter out to unacceptably low levels in the next decade or two and it is anyone's guess if electric-powered vehicles can take up the slack.

Given the uncertaintly, I'm avoiding making any large moves, saving as much money as I can & growing as much food as I can & digging in. I'm preparing for what I see as bad outcomes with a certain level of probability, and I will just shift priorities (and resources) as my view of probability & level of bad outcome changes.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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