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THE Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 15:08:36

Text deleted per COC 2.1.4. No more.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 21:14:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')uest on 2nd hour of latest Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava.



Good talk. Perhaps those that complain about Simmons should listen once to what he's saying before they make unsubstantiated statements and personal attacks void of content.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 22:03:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'G')uest on 2nd hour of latest Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava.
Good talk. Perhaps those that complain about Simmons should listen once to what he's saying before they make unsubstantiated statements and personal attacks void of content (in violation of the CoC).


Simmons, M., Twilight in the Desert (New Jersey, John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2005 ), p.354:
"The twilight of Saudi Arabia's oil miracle, if properly understood and managed, could become the dawn of a more enlightened and sustainable global society....it could unleash the dawning of a genuine scientific investigation as the world's brightest minds tackle the challenges of inventing a series of new energy forms that create even greater security and prosperity for the evoling societies of our new century than we enjoyed through the bounty of affordable and dependable oil."

Emphasis mine.

I agree with Matt Simmons opinion on the results of no more than understanding, and the continued ability of ARAMCO to properly manage, their oilfields, and the expectation that this will lead to even greater prosperity than offered by oil.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 23:03:05

Simmons is telling you that we have screwed the pooch, but you're either too obtuse or your in denial to understand what he is saying.

Its time for the Saudi's to come clean and let independent analysts into their fields so the world can understand how brutally F'd we are all going to be in the not too distant future. That is the ONLY way we move forward with real mitigation.

I believe that at this point Simmon's probably feels we have already gone too far down the road from the situation that existed when he wrote that book.

I personally am in Hirsch's camp though. It's already too late for any cornucopian fantasy of conservation and alternatives to smooth the coming decline.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 23:17:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')immons is telling you that we have screwed the pooch, but you're either too obtuse or your in denial to understand what he is saying.


Deleted per COC 1.0. No more of this.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') I believe that at this point Simmon's probably feels we have already gone too far down the road from the situation that existed when he wrote that book.


I have provided the quote. If you wish to insist that he has another, differing, or alternate opinion as of late, feel free to provide it. We can then compare the two and decide publicly if he has honestly changed his mind, or simply has opinions that drift in any direction the wind happens to be blowing, and that the honest basis of his opinion is...shall we say....inconsistent?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')I personally am in Hirsch's camp though. It's already too late for any cornucopian fantasy of conservation and alternatives to smooth the coming decline.


Deleted per COC 1.0. No more of this.
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 07:52:18

AP, have you even Considered that Simmons is completly wrong on Saudi Arabia??? Just curious. I mean the guy has been wrong on a LOT so far.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 08:42:45

Deleted per COC 1.0. No more of this.

Deleted per COC 1.0. No more of this.

Can the mod who did this please PM me? I am unclear as to how I stepped over the line.
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Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 09:35:32

Well... our old buddy Matt Simmons has decided to pull the fire alarm again. Seems there's some crackpots out there making unfounded predictions about natural gas production!!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;In the 40 years I've followed the industry I've been continuously amazed at the tangent people are willing to go off on without any data, or by getting the data wrong," Simmons said.
Link

Matt seems to have forgotten that in 2003 he himself predicted* that a natural gas cliff -- a veritable natural gas armageddon -- was a certainty in the US by 2005. And yet here we are, 6 years later, swimming in a glut of natural gas.

Hmmm.... Something isn't adding up here. And yet Matt's brain isn't making the connection. Doesn't Matt remember? Is he allright? Has all that flying starved his brain of oxygen? Does he need an MRI? I don't know about you, but I'm damn worried.

Image

*) For your reading enjoyment, vintage Simmons from the summer of 2003:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')immons: As you know, I have been talking for some time about the natural gas cliff we are experiencing.

[...]

Well, I know you understand it, but people need to understand the concept of peaking and irreversible decline. It's a sharper issue with gas, which doesn't follow a bell curve but tends to fall off a cliff.

[...]
Someone's going to be left holding the bag big time. If natural gas consumption surges in ten days of excessive heat then it would require almost a complete shutdown of industrial consumption to compensate and protect the grid. As I have been reporting for years now, there isn't going to be enough gas to run those plants, let alone new ones.

[...]

Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.
Source
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue 01 Sep 2009, 12:01:24, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with the existing Simmons thread. Please do a forum search before starting a thread.
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby misterno » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 11:32:58

Is there a technical reason why NG wells face a production decline much faster than a oil well?
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby Escapist » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 11:52:15

Also shale gas producers are wearing rose colored glasses overstating their gas reserves, too optimistic about the lifespans of a well ..., I suggest you read the article on the oil drum that has been posted there a couple of weeks ago.

and to be honest you should deserve a ban calling simmons having an disease with no facts what so ever just because he doesn't agree with your point of view.

but this is how cornucopians work i guess attacking respected man for every change they get.
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 19:56:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D, you ignored an important component of Simmon's comments. Where he discusses the geology and production curve of tightly-held shale gas.


Simmons' comments have no credibility whatsoever. His faulty knowledge of geology and production curves led him to predict that NG would go off a cliff by 2005. In reality, NG production has risen to a historic high which was last reached in 1974. Simmons said "it go big down" and in reality "it go big up". Is that clearer?

The disappointing part is the guy who interviewed Simmons for this piece. He did no research, and had now idea that Simmons' credibility on this topic was shot. Just goes to show how lazy and sycophantic reporters are. Totally incapable incapable of asking a tough question. Don't you agree, Pete?
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 20:02:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Escapist', 'a')nd to be honest you should deserve a ban calling simmons having an disease with no facts what so ever just because he doesn't agree with your point of view.


Actually, I do have one fact, to wit...

FACT 1: Matt Simmons predicted that NG production would fall off a cliff by 2005. It didn't and rose to a historic high in 2009.

And of course, I didn't actually say that Matt has Alzheimer's. I said that his inability to address or remember FACT 1 *raised concerns* that he may be suffering from memory loss, alzheimer's, oxygen deprivation etc.
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 20:12:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D, you ignored an important component of Simmon's comments. Where he discusses the geology and production curve of tightly-held shale gas.


Simmons' comments have no credibility whatsoever.


I think your "Matt Simmons has amnesia" or whatnot post shows that pretty well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')His faulty knowledge of geology and production curves led him to predict that NG would go off a cliff by 2005. In reality, NG production has risen to a historic high which was last reached in 1974. Simmons said "it go big down" and in reality "it go big up". Is that clearer?


But the real question is, is he so wrong that he can be used as counter-indicative? Can money be made by ALWAYS betting against him?
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 10:00:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso shale gas producers are wearing rose colored glasses overstating their gas reserves, too optimistic about the lifespans of a well ..., I suggest you read the article on the oil drum that has been posted there a couple of weeks ago.


I assume you are referring to the article by Art Burnham that suggests the Barnett is not doing so well. I had a very interesting discussion yesterday with a couple of the shale gas experts from IHS CERA and their comment was that Art's database is extremely sparse whereas IHS CERA have data on almost all of the shale gas wells drilled in N.A. Their comment is that he is incorrect statistically, which is what drives the shale gas play. You may have a few wells that don't do so well and peter out after a few years but you also have a lot of wells that produce for a long time. CERA's point of view is that irrespective of his poor database the history of production he is looking at is too short for a very accurate picture and more production history is needed.
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 22:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he point of my correction regards tightly held shale gas. You know. I know. We all know he was talking about conventional natural gas. Not tightly held shale gas that expires almost immediately.

Wrong. He said absolutely nothing about conventional vs unconventional gas. Here is his exact quote:

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]FTW: And natural gas too?

Simmons: Well, I know you understand it, but people need to understand the concept of peaking and irreversible decline. It's a sharper issue with gas, which doesn't follow a bell curve but tends to fall off a cliff. There will always be oil and gas in the ground, even a million years from now. The question is, will you be a microbe to go down and eat the oil in small pockets at depths no one can afford or is able to drill to? Will you spend hundreds of thousands to drill a gas well that will run dry in a few months? All the big deposits have been found and exploited. There aren't going to be any dramatic new discoveries and the discovery trends have made this abundantly clear.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Matt Simmons: Memory Problems?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 22:45:18

dork, that isn't the Simmons quote JD was referring to. In 2003 Matt Simmons said natural gas production would fall off a cliff and we had about two more years before we reached a crisis. It's all here in black and white.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '*')) For your reading enjoyment, vintage Simmons from the summer of 2003:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')immons: As you know, I have been talking for some time about the natural gas cliff we are experiencing.

[...]

Well, I know you understand it, but people need to understand the concept of peaking and irreversible decline. It's a sharper issue with gas, which doesn't follow a bell curve but tends to fall off a cliff.

[...]
Someone's going to be left holding the bag big time. If natural gas consumption surges in ten days of excessive heat then it would require almost a complete shutdown of industrial consumption to compensate and protect the grid. As I have been reporting for years now, there isn't going to be enough gas to run those plants, let alone new ones.

[...]

Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.
Source
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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