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THE Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby AAA » Fri 15 May 2009, 12:21:01

So I clicked on the View Active Topics button and in a list of 50 active topics only 4 were in the peak oil category. No surprise really since most po members are overweight middle-age men fantasizing about being rambo or mad max.

But I figured I would bring this to everyone's attention since I am going to watch it next week. Matt Simmons: The Status Of The Oil & Gas Industry Costs: $100 (in my opinion is a small amout to be able to profit or prepare)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Overview: Renowned energy expert Matt Simmons will discuss the sobering state of the oil and gas industry—from the natural gas glut to the Obama Administration’s energy policy and the growing talent vacuum—in a special Oil and Gas Investor presentation on Thursday, April 30, 10 a.m. CDT, of his remarks at the “Strategies for High Performance in Volatile Times” conference.

A few of Simmons’ comments in this 50-minute webinar include:

-- “The gas glut is a joke; it’s not real…What a tragedy to destroy our most valuable natural resource—because of bad data.”

-- “It is alarming to see 100% of the focus (in Washington) on climate change and none on supply.”

-- “Some 15% (of oilfield workers) are young and untrained, and 85% are within a few years of retirement. That’s not Houston or Dubai—that’s worldwide.”

-- “The EIA supply model is fantasy land. We are now in the process of destroying the U.S. gas industry.”

-- “What is a fair price for oil? … I think $150 was too low.”

Mr. Simmons, who founded oilfield investment-banking firm Simmons and Company International, also touches on ethanol, wind power, the rusting of energy infrastructure, industry layoffs, college recruiting, Kazakhstan’s Kashagan Field and much more.

All registrants will receive a complimentary copy of Hart’s VISION 2009: Global Energy Outlook special report – a $99 value.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sun 24 May 2009, 15:06:33, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: merged with THE Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby AAA » Fri 15 May 2009, 12:43:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'S')o I clicked on the View Active Topics button and in a list of 50 active topics only 4 were in the peak oil category. No surprise really since most po members are overweight middle-age men fantasizing about being rambo or mad max.

But I figured I would bring this to everyone's attention since I am going to watch it next week.
This is my favorite part. So since you're going to watch this it has to be good? Here is one very fit very buff middle age man who doesn't care for your advice.

Must be great to be young and oblivious. :twisted:


I figured it is good because it is a presentation by Matt Simmons about peak oil directed at the oil industry.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby AAA » Fri 15 May 2009, 13:03:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually AAA it seems pretty interesting. Especially to an old man who can't even imagine what a webinar is. Is that virtual bbq? :razz:


It is basically a recorded presentation given over the internet since it is far too expensive to go to all the oil & gas conferences.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby OutOfGas » Fri 15 May 2009, 20:16:03

He has most of his presentations on his web site. The data is brutally clear. What is so scarry is that most people do not have a clu about energy. Most Americans think they have a right to cheap gasoline.

My wifes father recently told me that the US had all of the oil it needed in Montana, but that the Oil Companies had the wells capped, until the price came up. He believes this.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby Micki » Fri 15 May 2009, 21:19:27

You expect to get something for the $100 that you don't get from his free slides and interviews on sites like financialsense? If there is anything new, I am sure it will be posted on sites afterwards by other people anyway so it only gives you 24hr headway to us cheapskates.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 May 2009, 22:34:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'Y')ou expect to get something for the $100 that you don't get from his free slides and interviews on sites like financialsense? If there is anything new, I am sure it will be posted on sites afterwards by other people anyway so it only gives you 24hr headway to us cheapskates.


If Simmons does say something new in his $100 webinar that isn't common knowledge here at PO.com, would you please post it here and let us know?

Thx.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 15 May 2009, 23:55:12

I'd watch it but I just polished off a large meat lovers pizza and a couple Dr. Peppers. I'm just going to lie down and watch Red Dawn again.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 16 May 2009, 01:04:00

Red Dawn, cool flick! Huh, they're working on a remake:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')llsworth has said “The tone is going to be very intense, very much keeping in mind the post-9/11 world that we’re in,” says Ellsworth, who was 11 when the original was released. “As ‘Red Dawn’ scared the heck out of people in 1984, we feel that the world is kind of already filled with a lot of paranoia and unease, so why not scare the hell out of people again?


:lol: Why not, indeed?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t was later revealed by Latino Review that the villians will be The Chinese.”[9]


:roll: Time to short T Bills.

Also in the Remake Works: Robocop. When did we reach Peak Imaginative Movie Script?

Friend of mine says check out Harry's War With The IRS. Haven't found the time yet myself.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ebinar

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s that virtual bbq?


Really. No relation to a Savinar? Somebody needs to Twit Matt rgrdz webinar!
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 16 May 2009, 01:07:01

Is it twit or tweet?
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 16 May 2009, 11:13:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')s it twit or tweet?


Google definitions includes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')weet (born Charlene L. Keys on January 21 1971) is an American R&B, soul, and neo soul singer-songwriter and guitarist.


Tweet seems to be the accepted parlance, but is not "twit" a natural past tense for it? Are they Tweeterers, or Twits? The collective plural can't be Tweets, otherwise the distinction between device and user is lost. I think. Twits will tweet, afterwards twitted on Twitter. Sounds like a passage from Lewis Carroll...
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby MD » Sat 16 May 2009, 11:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')s it twit or tweet?


Google definitions includes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')weet (born Charlene L. Keys on January 21 1971) is an American R&B, soul, and neo soul singer-songwriter and guitarist.


Tweet seems to be the accepted parlance, but is not "twit" a natural past tense for it? Are they Tweeterers, or Twits? The collective plural can't be Tweets, otherwise the distinction between device and user is lost. I think. Twits will tweet, afterwards twitted on Twitter. Sounds like a passage from Lewis Carroll...


Tweeterdumb and twitterdull?
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It's not hard to do.
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby Aaron » Sat 16 May 2009, 11:48:32

Anybody else read this thread title as " Matt Simminar"?

:razz:
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 17 May 2009, 01:30:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')nybody else read this thread title as " Matt Simminar"? :razz:

Simminar, that's really tasty on whipped cream and cocoa. Image
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Re: Matt Simmons Webinar

Unread postby Buggy » Sun 17 May 2009, 15:27:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'S')o I clicked on the View Active Topics button and in a list of 50 active topics only 4 were in the peak oil category. No surprise really since most po members are overweight middle-age men fantasizing about being rambo or mad max.


No fantasizing here...

I'm Rambo.

Image
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Re: Matt Simmons: We're 3-6 months away from an oil price shock

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 00:06:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'m going to post this thread and link the article for the purposes of revisiting it in 3-6 months.
Matt said on March 26: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29891917
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', '&')quot;We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

And for the record, as I write this oil is about $53 on the NYMEX.

Well, the first 3 months of Matt Simmons' time period has elapsed. Let's see how he's done.

Oil went up to about $73 from the $53 when he made his prediction. It has since fallen a few dollars and has remained relatively stable the past week or two. Not sure if $20 counts as a spike, but I'll give him half-credit so far.

BTW the original link to the article has expired so here's another one:
>>> Reuters <<<
From page 1:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', '&')quot;We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

"These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike," he said.

Thanks to him being half-right, oil prices are no longer "dangerously low." In fact most oil producers are saying they like prices right around where they are now.

Simmons catastrophe #1 averted.

Now let's go to page 3.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', '&')quot;Within a few months, we are going to realise our visible inventories are really tight -- squeaky tight -- and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

He clearly struck out here. From May's Oilwatch monthly:
Image
^
Through April, OECD stocks are through the roof.

And focusing on the US, from the EIA:
Image
^
Through last week, US crude stocks are above the 5-year average. Elsewhere on the EIA site, you can find that gasoline stocks are within the 5-year average range, and distillate stocks are through the roof.

It would be hard to tell if the rise in prices had much effect on stocks. Maybe yes, maybe not much difference. In either case, Simmons catastrophe #2 averted.

So overall, I'll give him a C+. :)

Next update in another 3 months.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Matthew Simmons Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 00:18:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')e is absolutely right. $70 during a recession when $40 is a medium is a price shock.

you loose. :)

Ah, but we may no longer be in a recession.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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