[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Do you want to be a war-lord or a weenie?

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'w')ow. we're actually talking about peakoil!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
') I really do think I'm dead, post peak, though.

[KevO]

here's my two pennies worth

The US economy will go near to collapse this year
A trillion, like the billions before it won't make a difference
Oil will hang around $40 to $60.

Oil can't go up until the economy does. If it were to, it would just collapse the economy
catch 22

that's where we are

The arctic oil and gas that Russia claim will be for themselves and as the US and UK don't have their own they must turn to renewables immediatly.
But there is no money to do so

catch 22

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')
oil prices must explode during this Depression.

[threadbear]

PStarr, You're repeating your own mantra. I agree with everything you said about growth on a finite planet, and think, energy aside, we have to either voluntarily reduce population, or it has to somehow be imposed on us. The growth model, even if we do it cleanly will displace animal populations, by eliminating habitat through purely mechanical means.

Energy, is probably the most amenable to remedy, though. It would be awful, if cheap alternative energy gave human beings the excuse they needed to further infest this poor planet.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I think we are fubar

[Ludi]

.

[Newfie]

My wife and I keep arguing about the potential "imminent collapse." And, like here, the argument is over the timing. This is NOT an academic discussion for us, ask our marriage counselor. And it's not that one of us is pessimistic and the other is optimistic, it is that we are trying to understand the future time line and PROBABILITY of a collapse out over one, two, three and ten year scenarios.

Just wanted to say I appreciate this conversation. Even if it is not definitive, it is helpful. If nothing else it makes me feel less nuts for considering these potential events.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'a')nd I see the two as much more decoupled than you do.

[alokin]

Yes I think it was designed, at least to a certain extend.

And nobody should tell about prices tomorrow, you make yourself ridiculous unless you are member of the mafia and know really what's planned.
Anyway wWhat does $600 per barrel mean if a loaf of bread costs you $ 100? He should have added in today's dollar value.
Too many unknown factors, who pushs and pulls? What will inflation make? Will the dollar be the oil trading currency? Geology? Geo politics?

[Schmuto]

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/03/30/oil-prices-headed-back-toward-150-a-barrel-mc-ready/

Everybody make a note: M. Simmons is calling a spike by year end, and indicating that it "may exceed last year's spike."

I really like MS as a spokesman for Peak Oil, but he made a NG call a few years back that was dead wrong - something about - "we may be OK for a year or two, but in three it's a disaster." Three years later and the NG market is at about 5 a unit - no whiff of disaster.

So I hate to say it, but I'm worried that the man is becoming a bit of an alarmist, and I think that he could be damaging the larger message with constant calls for the near term spike. So, I started this thread to track MS's comments over the next 9 months regarding the price of oil.

If oil stays under 60 the rest of the year, this prediction is going to look really bad. I'm starting to wonder how many long future contracts in CL MS has.

[TheDude]

Oh, they still have Matt on CNBC for their little soundbite fêtes, right? Doubt he gets much more props than Jeff Rubin though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')gnoring for the moment the large Canadian oil sands reserves that would be marketable with oil prices above $80 per barrel, any sudden recognition of a Ghawar peak would most likely also propel sudden, and irreversible, changes in U.S. energy policy.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Furthermore, no one [gives] a rat's posterior what Simmons believes. Other than a few tinfoil doomers over at the POWacko.com

[copious.abundance]

I already started a thread four days ago on this here:
http://peakoil.com/current-events/matt- ... 52114.html