[Duende]

Lord help us all if it comes to what you guys are talking about. Yikes.

[dunny]

Re the cannibalism... very common in human history for all sorts of reasons. Recently less so obviously but I reckon it will make a big comeback.

Back on topic,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/06/quantitative-easing-interest-rates

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Â')£75bn may sound like chicken-feed, but investors were surprised at how much the Bank is planning to splash out, and how fast. Analysts from Barclays Capital pointed out yesterday that it is one-and-a-half times the entire stock of notes and coins in the economy.

[kmann]

Gee's people, this ain't even as bad as the '80s recession... yet the discussion is on cannabalism? We got a ways to go before it gets that bad. Even if the economy continues dropping like a rock for the next two years we'll have a ways to go. At least in the US.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'G')ee's people, this ain't even as bad as the '80s recession... yet the discussion is on cannabalism? We got a ways to go before it gets that bad. Even if the economy continues dropping like a rock for the next two years we'll have a ways to go. At least in the US.

[Livewire713]

If trucking is disrupted for any reason it could get ugly fast.

[the48thronin]

http://www.peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=51413


yup!

[spear]

Is it possible that the 94percent drop in shipping was from the junk that the world buys ,and that the6% that is still operating the ships moving essential goods like food or is that wishful thinking.

Can the BDI chart be broken down to like example: 10%new autos
25%oil,petrol products
25% useless products
15%raw materials
25% agricultural,food


1)new cars have stopped moving
2)oil petrol products are down
3)useless products are definately down
4)raw materials are down
5) ag products transport must be down a little also

Im thinking there was a shipping bubble also.So many worthless goods being moved worldwide over the last 30 years,,now its dropped,a lot agreed,but it may balance out somehow soon.
What Im trying to say is,shipping cant stop.It never has,and it never will.
Its the number one mode of transport on this planet since the invention of the boat.
This may not be a major alarm,but something that has just put shipping back 30 years.
Not good for ship owners,but so what,theyve been making millions and millions all these years.

[patience]

Anybody read KD's Ticker from yesterday? He's in a panic.
link

Says we are days away from the abyss, expecting stocks to collapse very soon.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'A')nybody read KD's Ticker from yesterday? He's in a panic.
[url][/urhttp://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.htmll]

Says we are days away from the abyss, expecting stocks to collapse very soon.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'H')ate to be ghoulish, but during Stalin's forced starvation of the Ukraine in the 30's, people ate their own children. These were not isolated incidents.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')By what measure would you say this isn't as bad as the 80s recession?

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')By what measure would you say this isn't as bad as the 80s recession?

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'A')nybody read KD's Ticker from yesterday? He's in a panic.
[url][/urhttp://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.htmll]

Says we are days away from the abyss, expecting stocks to collapse very soon.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')aving lived through the stagflation of the 1970's and Black Monday in 1987 I can tell you this is nothing like them.

Those two previous events occurred primarily in and to the US economy and ended because other national economic cycles picked our financial pieces, to make money from them. And visa versa. There are no other cycles now. Just one big downturn.

Furthermore, I am still convinced the stagflation of the 1970's was a direct consequence of US oil peak, and the 'Reagan's Rebound' was nothing more than the first of many bubbles inflated by the petro-dollar and US debt.

This is far worse than the Great Depression. We will experience similar stagflation where prices increase as employment declines. Then a period of economic hyperinflation and relative social calm as the last new oilfields--deep water Brazil, Africa, USSR--are produced. This will be followed by social collapse. The slide has just started as per Catton and Jay Hanson.

[vision-master]

No more money, no more fancy dress

This other kingdom seems by far the best

until it's other jaw reveals incest

and loose obedience to a vegetable law.

[Daphne64]

The amount being shipped isn't down 94%, it's the shipping PRICES that are down.

I would guess the amount being shipped is down about 50%.

Also, when a shipping price of 0 is quoted, I believe that is exclusive of fuel, salaries and docking fees. There is no way a shipper would enter into a contract KNOWING it would lose money vs just sitting in a harbor.

[AlexdeLarge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'A')nybody read KD's Ticker from yesterday? He's in a panic.
[url][/urhttp://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.htmll]

Says we are days away from the abyss, expecting stocks to collapse very soon.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')oth bank credit and the M3 money supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer, raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation.

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).
"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances is madness."

The M3 "broad" money supply, watched as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so later, has been falling at a 5pc annual rate.
Similar concerns have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24, bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.

"For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew," he said.
It is unclear why the US Federal Reserve has allowed this to occur.

Chairman Ben Bernanke is an expert on the "credit channel" causes of depressions and has given eloquent speeches about the risks of deflation in the past.
He is not a monetary economist, however, and there are indications that the Fed has had to pare back its policy of quantitative easing (buying bonds) in order to reassure China and other foreign creditors that the US is not trying to devalue its debts by stealth monetisation.
Mr Congdon said a key reason for credit contraction is pressure on banks to raise their capital ratios. While this is well-advised in boom times, it makes matters worse in a downturn.

"The current drive to make banks less leveraged and safer is having the perverse consequence of destroying money balances," he said. "It strengthens the deflationary forces in the world economy. That increases the risks of a double-dip recession in 2010."

Referring to the debt-purge policy of US Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon in the early 1930s, he added: "The pressure on banks to de-risk and to de-leverage is the modern version of liquidationism: it is potentially just as dangerous."

He predicted that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be forced to engage in outright monetisation of government debt by next year, whatever they say now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ssion.html