[shady28]

I wanted to hit a few of your points here - partly to remove some of the 'its happening next year' sound to the post.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Seventy-eight million baby-boomers are going to start retiring at 62 next year, the first year they will be eligible to collect Social Security. As they do, the number of retirees in America will double. At the same time the workforce supporting them will grow by a mere 15%. Solving this problem will hurt like hell.

[gg3]

Population is the problem in the "developing" (ha) world, but disease and war will take care of that. See also Zimbabwe, which is also a pandemic-in-waiting. Needless to say, borders will have to close.

The other half of the equation is consumption levels in the "developed" (ha) world. For this we have a readily available solution that will also solve the problem of government deficits and win the General War On Terrorism:

Legalize recreational marijuana and opium.

Yes, that's right, marijuana and opium.

Marijuana tricks the brain's reward system into thinking that you've actually done something to justify a reward. Even if all you've done is to sit around contemplating your oh-so-fascinating navel. Friday night at the pot party is the perfect antidote for Saturday at the shopping center.

As for opium, need I state the obvious? Few people in this world are quite as unproductive and unconsuming as the opium addict, who just lounges around on cushions smoking himself into oblivion. Produce? Consume? Why bother? "What, me worry?"

And since opium apparently also wipes out the desire for food, all those obese Americans can do themselves and the world a favor by dreaming away their excess poundage! Why go to a gym and sweat when you can go to a dope den and drool? The food not eaten by the opium "aficionados" can of course be redistributed to the rest of the world, or at least to "developing" (ha) countries that are getting their birth rates under control.

Both of these products are indefinitely renewable resources. Both can be taxed appropriately and thereby solve the government deficits overnight.

And as for the war on terrorism, appoint a new government in Afghanistan and tell them: a) We'll buy all of your opium so long as you eradicate all traces of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and then develop a secret force that can go into other countries and do likewise, but b) If there's another Al Qaeda attack against any Western country, not only is the deal off but the bombs will come raining down as well. Carrot and stick. And Afghanistan's secret force will take up all the risks of doing covert actions throughout the region.

Win-win solution all'round.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'L')egalize recreational marijuana and opium.

Yes, that's right, marijuana and opium.

Marijuana tricks the brain's reward system into thinking that you've actually done something to justify a reward. Even if all you've done is to sit around contemplating your oh-so-fascinating navel. Friday night at the pot party is the perfect antidote for Saturday at the shopping center.

As for opium, need I state the obvious? Few people in this world are quite as unproductive and unconsuming as the opium addict, who just lounges around on cushions smoking himself into oblivion. Produce? Consume? Why bother? "What, me worry?"
.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Increases in stock market and residential property wealth have substituted for putting aside money each month from their paychecks. As the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'I') wanted to hit a few of your points here - partly to remove some of the 'its happening next year' sound to the post.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'I') tend to look at our limitations to bear the brunt of this storm. We know that whatever we do, it will require trillions of dollars of investment in infrastructure. Money that we don't have unless we "print it" causing hyperinflation.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
I'm talking about monetization of the debt. Helicopter money. It is always inflationary. This is money that will be infused into the economy to either stimulate growth or fund these captial shortfalls I speak of. It isn't going to stay "hidden."

[shady28]

One last point on deflation.

Prime example is Japan. 1989 - Nikkei collapses from 39,000 and today sits at 17000. Property values collapsed, causing many banks to technically go bankrupt as the value of their assets vs liabilities went 'upside down'. Japan was / is a major creditor to Asia - as those debts went bad, the books of Japan's banks went 'bad' too.

1989-present Japan maintained a huge trade surplus. This is in effect money being poured into Japan, an inflationary process. At the same time, the BoJ (Japan's Fed) made many attempts to 'reflate' the economy - including monetizing some banks and even giving special 'tax refunds' - basically giving away money.

End result ? Since 1991, total inflation in Japan is less than 3%. That's including things like medical care which rose rapidly. Looking at the price of goods - they've been static for some 17 years.

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/ ... 1581h5.xls

Like I said, hyperinflation is not a given. The deflationary forces from massive debt retirement are themselves massive.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')Like I said, hyperinflation is not a given. The deflationary forces from massive debt retirement are themselves massive.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')Like I said, hyperinflation is not a given. The deflationary forces from massive debt retirement are themselves massive.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')This is something that is likely to cause deflation and high interest rates, regardless of what the fed does.

[MonteQuest]

The storm brews.

In 2007, many people refinanced their homes. Many to get a fixed rate over an ARM or interest only...but 80% of those loans were equity cash outs.

That refi-ATM liquidity flow is going to dry up. For all those who say the bottom is near or here, I chuckle.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'A') good question is when will the peak oil, global warming, and indebtedness effects reach a point where they qualitatively change the way of life in such privileged influential regions as the US, Australia, and Britain.? Will China be impacted more severely first?

[MonteQuest]

Well, well. It seems the storm has arrived. What remains now is whether it will be a Cat 5. I think it will.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Increases in stock market and residential property wealth have substituted for putting aside money each month from their paychecks. As the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments.

[Revi]

People are squirreling away nuts for winter. We aren't really saving for the long term, just saving because the rest of the ponzi schemes have all gone belly up.

Time to stuff as much as you can in a mattress, (or in the bank at practically zero interest) because it beats investing it in any other kind of asset.

The Baltic Dry Index, which is a measure of world shipping fell practically to nothing just in the past few months. We aren't going to have anything happening in the next couple of months.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXATSV8S3-M


Manufacturing worldwide is at a standstill. Cars are piling up in ports, so paying people to make more of them is crazy.

Nobody's buying anything. They are hoarding whatever cash they can get together.

We are going to see some tough times very soon.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') You need to check a few of your prior assumptions and accompanying data. This was posted on Feb 26, 2007. Notice the (new) savings rate figures.

[MonteQuest]

And I stick with my assumption:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments.

Monte, this is what you wrote in your very first post in this thread.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hird: People no longer have any rebound ability. The Commerce Department reported recently that the savings rate for all of 2006 was a negative 1 percent, meaning that not only did people spend all the money they earned but they also dipped into savings or increased borrowing to finance purchases. The 2006 figure was lower than a negative 0.4 percent in 2005 and was the poorest showing since a negative 1.5 percent savings rate in 1933 during the Great Depression. (2004 savings rate = positive 1.7%)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd I stick with my assumption:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the US baby boomers retire, they will further depress the savings rate as they draw down their savings in an effort to make up the difference between the salaries they earned on the job and their smaller Social Security payments.