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The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Wed 07 Feb 2007, 01:35:11

Hello, giddy, he who at times has a hard time understanding me.

And, as I was just told not only are they, the Near Easterns,
prone to violence, but they also "have no regard for human life."
No, I would not say that about the blacks and jews, though the blacks are prone to criminality, are emotive and physical, musical, and inclined to the concrete not the abstract whereas the jews are
historically one of the most cohesive people and have a long tradition of valuing intellectual knowledge. Actually, I would not recommend actually hating people as it tends to perpetuate destructive conflicts, but, I think it is only realistic to recognize that people have inborn characteristics of personality as well as physiognamy, just like breeds of dogs.

Lates.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Wed 07 Feb 2007, 23:48:46

Ok.
Actually, I agree with both of those suppositions, the first which you said was unsupportable and the second that you said was supportable. I believe that there will be some mixing of races, but in 10,000 years, there still well may be some races as certain pnes are better adapted to certain climates than others and the preponderances of certain numbers are likely to maintain some racial groupings for many thousands of years. Of course, this is a long way from the PO storm. However, the coming limitations in available energy sources will reduce mobility overall.

Lates.
g
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby pea-jay » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 00:10:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '
')
In 10,000 years there will be no races left, but just a spectrum.


Depends what those 10000 years bring. If there is no change from the status quo (high mobility between regions) I'd say yes

A hundred centuries of technology and progress I dare say we'll end up like the Borg or some other high-tech bio-based life form.

Of course if we wind up making our way back to the Olduvai Gorge, then we'll evolve to best fit our local environs, even if our ancestors didnt originate from there.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby seven » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 04:12:13

Gideon wrote:

"It's like feeding the starving Africans when I was a kid. I'd see images on TV of the starving woman, and right there in her arm was a starving kid. And even then I was savvy enough to ask, "if she's starving, why is she having a baby?" and "if we send them food, won't they just have more babies?"

There are a few answers to this beyond what a 'little kid' might think of while watching tv - one, many millions of Africans are conservative Catholics, and follow the strict Catholic tenets of no birth control, large families, etc. Add to that (and much more importantly) many millions of African women are 'culturally inferior' to the males, and must submit to sex with their husband whenever he wishes...so being 'in charge' of one's reproductive capacity is almost impossible for many millions of African girls and women.

This same cultural norm of females having to submit to males is a major driving facter in the high spread of HIV/AIDS in that country and other sexist societies - many women in Africa (and other countries) have become infected because their husbands have extramarital sex, get HIV, then pass it on to their unsuspecting wives. African wives who refuse sex are doubly-penalized - they are shamed by the church, and routinely beaten by their husbands.
The heavily sexist social structure and common use of violence against females guarantees the sexual subservience of females even if they're not religious. Rape is extremely common, as well.

The lower birthrate in wealthy countries has more to do with availability of dependable birth control than anything else. Second would be the education of women - the more educated the woman, the fewer children she usually has...and education and birth control availability often go hand in hand. Combine education with available birth control, and you achieve a relatively stable, non-explosive population. Wealthy countries that don't use much birth control due to religious tenets have very high birth rates, of course.

Taken as a whole, the African overpopulation problem has a LOT more to do with extreme social inequality between the sexes than it does with women just thoughtlessly producing babies - add religious conservatism about birth control, family size and servility of females, and there is a recipe for population disaster.

So the next time you see a starving African woman holding a starving baby, you might think about the fact that she probably had no choice about having the sex that produced it.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 11:07:49

Let's try to not get off on tangents here. The Peakoil Perfect Storm is a much broader issue that really comes down to economics. What will we spend the money we have on? Which of these issues will get our prime attention?
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 11:08:51

The only thing wrong with what treebeard wrote was that he incorrectly assigns attributes to RACE and not CULTURE.

Arabs and Islamics have a CULTURE that worships death, Jihad, mysogeny, inequality and submission. All values that do not square with western values of individual liberty, pluralism and democracy.

People often confuse race and culture. Racists tend to ascribe negative traits to race, which is just boolsheet. However, apologists within our own culture are way too quick to gloss over the really bad elements of cultures that we are in conflict with. No matter how poorly we represent our own culture, no matter how poorly our leaders bastardize our values, there is no excusing cultural practices like keeping women in chattel slavery, assigning non believers 'dhimmi' status and spreading your religion by the sword.

Rather than excusing these behaviors in the name of multicultualism, we should be enforcing our values upon our own leaders.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 11:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seven', 'W')ealthy countries that don't use much birth control due to religious tenets have very high birth rates, of course.


Can you name one ?

I don't disagree that education and birth control also affect fertility and replacement rate. But the demographic data is very clear. the richer you are the less children you have.

Also, if you want women to have education and a measure of freedom in the future, you should have some babies and encourage all your friends to do so. Western culture, which values such things, is being outbred by Islamic cultures which do not.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 11:31:12

Just to tie all my comments back to the peak oil perfect storm: (again, i'm channeling Steyn here) We are running out of babies faster than we are running out of oil.

I know it's horribly un-PC to say so, but western culture, warts and all, is far superior to anything else on the planet today. Imagine an oil starved world with throngs of poor, uneducated Islamics pouring out of the inhospitable middle east and sub-saharan africa and into Europe and Asia, demanding sharia law and imposing their will on an OLD, dying culture. This is what Steyn sees in our future and the demographic data supports his assertions.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 12:31:07

I think you should read his book and see for yourself Gideon.

Steyn's unapologetic about "our" cultural superiority and that turns a lot of multiculturalists off.

One of my friends, who actually turned me on to Steyn's book, would say the ultimate test of a civilization is whether its members think its worth continuing, and the vote is in for Europe and Russia. They've chosen demographic suicide.

He points out that we apparently lack the will to stand together and face the threat of the Islamists. At the root of all our issues, we lack the common belief that our culture is superior to others and that is what's behind the demographic collapse of the west.

Wheras i'm focused on resource collapse, he is just as focused on demographic collapse.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby JPL » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 16:01:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'I') think you should read his book and see for yourself Gideon.

Steyn's unapologetic about "our" cultural superiority and that turns a lot of multiculturalists off.

One of my friends, who actually turned me on to Steyn's book, would say the ultimate test of a civilization is whether its members think its worth continuing, and the vote is in for Europe and Russia. They've chosen demographic suicide.

He points out that we apparently lack the will to stand together and face the threat of the Islamists. At the root of all our issues, we lack the common belief that our culture is superior to others and that is what's behind the demographic collapse of the west.

Wheras i'm focused on resource collapse, he is just as focused on demographic collapse.


Hi ALBY,

Hmm, I'm not sure I agree with you here. There are already strong ultra-right groupings in most of the main players in western Europe and they seem to gain more votes every year.

Also when the petrocallapse-slide starts to become a reality the economic basis of EU Federalism will rapidly come un-stitched. (It is precarious enough even when times are good.)

Moslims (AKA 'Jews' but 60 years on) will be hounded out of both Europe and Russia and there will be serried ranks of stubble-jawed guards, keeping the borders between the various countries sealed.

It has been done here before and will probably be done again (shudder).

I find your idea of 'demographic suicide' interesting but you can also turn it around if you watch Al Bartlett. Europe is a VERY crowded place so you could also call the falling birth-rate, 'demographic necessity'...

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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 17:31:45

To be fair, JPL, they are Steyn's idea's, not mine and although he obviously influences my thinking, i don't quite buy into these ideas completely. part of me thinks petrocollapse will kill more of the throngs in the marginal areas of the world first. they live on the battlefied after all. So we have NO IDEA how demography and petrocollapse will interact.

Your points about Europe and it's propensity for right wing nationalism and being crowded are duly noted. I'm glad you are here to inform the debate.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby ALBY » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 20:25:57

your loss my friend.

i read chomsky and stan goff. made my eyes bleed, but there is something to be learned from everyone.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 20:42:02

Folks, there are numerous threads elsewhere to address the latest posts to this thread.

Let's try to get back on topic.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 23:24:18

Seems Tom Whipple is talking about the "storm" as well.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Connecting the Dots

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key question is whether the economic troubles come before or after oil, for one reason or another, becomes very expensive and scarce. Many observers think there are serious economic troubles just ahead stemming from negative savings in the US, the housing bubble, collapse of Detroit, balance of payments, value of the dollar, or any number of other factors.


Link
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 02:49:21

Ok.

Check out this article too:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle ... emID=12055

IN THE SPIRIT OF NERO

The gist of the article is the great cognitive dissonance that exists between what is stated in reports on global warming etc and the other content of the publications in which they are included.

Also check out

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/h ... 57DFE2F%7D

Sub-prime gloom picks up after HSBC warning
No. 3 bank sparks fears for lenders; charge will be 20% higher than expected

Sub-prime lenders are having problems. This does not bode well for that bs pipe-dream line about there being a soft landing in real estate (more like a "soft" landing of hitting a sheet wrapped around an anvil after a 50 foot drop).
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 12:11:27

Five Factors for Five More Years

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=6850

this article analyzes the economic momentum of savings deficit, yen carry trade, derivatives trading, Chinese currency reserves and financial investments from now to 2011 and says itis impossible to keep oing likethe last 5 years.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby gg3 » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 07:57:29

The economic equation is simple: the unstoppable force (economic growth) hits the immovable object (a finite planet) with a loud crash.

It's axiomatic that we have to cease & reverse both population growth and economic growth, or nature will do both for us whether we like it or not. The only question is how the misery is distributed. As for me, I'm in favor of forcibly spaying & neutering humans en masse rather than forcibly shortening their lifespans. On the other hand, since I value liberty, I suppose it's better to let them choose one or the other.

Someone around here started a thread on communism. He's a self-proclaimed Marxist, I'm highly skeptical, but I'm interested to see how that discussion is going. Who knows?, one does sometimes find answers in places thought to be highly unlikely.

BTW, Gideon, you don't "f--- becuase you enjoy it" when you've had your clitoris cut off without anaesthetics and your vagina sewn up so that only a small opening remains in order to pass the menses each month. How'bout you try shoving a large cucumber up your arse, thrusting it in & out until you bleed and then some, and telling us how many times a week you want to do that for thrills? If you're not willing to do the proverbial experiment on yourself, then shut the f--- up about how women in Africa feel, because you really don't know doodley-squat, and it makes you look like the part of your anatomy that deserves the cucumber.

I must say, that picture of a hydrogen bomb explosion is almost comforting compared with what we're headed for.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MD » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 08:09:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'T')he economic equation is simple: the unstoppable force (economic growth) hits the immovable object (a finite planet) with a loud crash.

It's axiomatic that we have to cease & reverse both population growth and economic growth, or nature will do both for us whether we like it or not. The only question is how the misery is distributed. As for me, I'm in favor of forcibly spaying & neutering humans en masse rather than forcibly shortening their lifespans. On the other hand, since I value liberty, I suppose it's better to let them choose one or the other.

Someone around here started a thread on communism. He's a self-proclaimed Marxist, I'm highly skeptical, but I'm interested to see how that discussion is going. Who knows?, one does sometimes find answers in places thought to be highly unlikely.

BTW, Gideon, you don't "f--- becuase you enjoy it" when you've had your clitoris cut off without anaesthetics and your vagina sewn up so that only a small opening remains in order to pass the menses each month. How'bout you try shoving a large cucumber up your arse, thrusting it in & out until you bleed and then some, and telling us how many times a week you want to do that for thrills? If you're not willing to do the proverbial experiment on yourself, then shut the f--- up about how women in Africa feel, because you really don't know doodley-squat, and it makes you look like the part of your anatomy that deserves the cucumber.

I must say, that picture of a hydrogen bomb explosion is almost comforting compared with what we're headed for.


My first nomination for 2007 best-of awards. Not sure the category yet . . . this one covers a lot of ground.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 16:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')'m in favor of forcibly spaying & neutering humans en masse rather than forcibly shortening their lifespans.
If there was a choice, I think the latter would be the most rational choice. The human species needs reproduction to remain viable, it doesn't need long lifespans.
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Re: The Peak Oil Perfect Storm II

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 18:28:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')'m in favor of forcibly spaying & neutering humans en masse rather than forcibly shortening their lifespans.
If there was a choice, I think the latter would be the most rational choice. The human species needs reproduction to remain viable, it doesn't need long lifespans.


Spot on, Tony. Biology needs a continuous random sampling of the gene pool for a species to be viable. You cannot just stop births. You must also address the death rate. It's a balancing act that works well for nature, however, it doesn't work well with our full belly morals and sanctity of life notions.

That is not a belief of mine, just an observation of the hard reality of life on this blue planet of ours. Put in simplest terms, the recent population growth in all regions of the world was the consequence not of increased birth rates but of unprecedented, worldwide decreases in the death rate.

To address our population problem, we will need to reverse that process...or nature will.
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