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THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 23:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ook was written in 2005

To be fair to the author, if a book is copyrighted in 05 doesn't mean that's when it was written. The process of inception to hitting store shelves is a long one. He may have actually written the book five or ten years prior.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 00:26:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'H')mmm, that's odd...Usually by now, someone attacks the character, intelligence or sanity of any author claiming 911 was an inside job -- as Colin Campbell has done in his book.
His is essentially the Mike Ruppert view of how 911 and Peak Oil are related. Except that Mike Ruppert crowed long and hard about 911 while Colin Campbell, to my knowledge, has only written down his perspective this one time. He even credits Ruppert's Crossing The Rubicon in a sidebar near the end of the the selection entitled [url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic43852-0-asc-683.htmlThe Grand Plan.[/url]
Most people know 911 was an inside job by now.
I do not! Inform me! Oh, thats right! Let me guess! You voted for obamanation? Anything that happened in the last eight years is an inside job to you, right? What about everything that happened between 1992 and 2000? Image
Ask Heinberg, Campbell, Savinar and Ruppert, they will tell you.

Do these guys fit this category ?

Conspiracy theorist: “A psychologically disturbed person who poses a danger to society by virtue of the fact that he frequently questions or refuses to accept the views or opinions of society’s authorities” – The consensus definition of ‘conspiracy theorist’ promoted by society’s authorities.

LOL, maybe everybody who believes in PO is one too.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Carlhole » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 00:41:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ook was written in 2005
To be fair to the author, if a book is copyrighted in 05 doesn't mean that's when it was written. The process of inception to hitting store shelves is a long one. He may have actually written the book five or ten years prior.

No... Because 'Oil Crisis' is Campbell's follow-up to his earlier book, The Coming Oil Crisis. In it, he talks about very recent events, particularly about politics and geopolitics. The period of time he discusses - aside from historical background - is that of the Bush Administration's years in office until February 2005 when the preface was written.

Read the preface: Oil Crisis
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]PREFACE

The precursor of this book, The Coming Oil Crisis, was written in 1996 at a time when few people outside the oil industry had an inkling that there were any threats to oil supply other than perhaps those arising from political events in the Middle East. It was accordingly ahead of its time. Now, eight years on, the world has witnessed amazing changes, not least those stemming from the events of September 11, 2001, which almost put the world on a war footing, and had tangible expression with the invasion of Iraq. We now find ourselves with virtually no spare oil capacity, and prices have been soaring in recent months. It seems therefore a good moment to update the arguments and data. In general, the conclusions of The Coming Oil Crisis have proved to be not too far wide of the mark, but many points of detail and emphasis have changed, and the general understanding of the subject has improved.

In short we can say that it is now clear that the first half of the age of oil draws to a close. It has lasted 150 years since the pioneering wells were drilled in Pennsylvania and on the shores of the Caspian. The growing supply of cheap oil based energy that has marked this epoch has lead to a rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade and agriculture, allowing the population to expand sixfold, exactly in parallel with oil. It also gave rise to an explosion of financial capital, which led in turn to the subject of Economics, by which to understand and manage money.

Now, the second half of the age of oil dawns, meaning the supply of this priceless commodity, which underpins our entire way of life, will decline towards eventual exhaustion, along with all the many other things that depend upon it. It probably heralds the end of Economics as currently understood. Some see this as a doomsday message, but others have confidence that human ingenuity will be able to adapt and even find better solutions. The challenge comes in the transition, which promises to be a time of great international tension. Time is short to make the critical changes and adopt new mind-sets to match the new situation. It is hoped that the pages of this new study will provide basic insights that will help people understand their predicament in order to plan and prepare.

The original idea of merely revising The Coming Oil Crisis proved to be more difficult than first anticipated. In particular, Chapter 8, which gives a forecast of future production, had to be rewritten in its entirety to take into account the new geopolitical circumstances following the declaration of the so-called War On Terror by the United States. These matters lie far from the geological controls affecting oil production, on which professional qualifications can be claimed, but sensitive as they are, they have to be addressed in forecasting the future. The official account of events lacks credibility in many important regards forcing the reader to consider what our dismissively termed Conspiracy Theories, which cannot be ignored. On balance, it seems better to present what appears to be a logical interpretation, even if it's inclusion may be taken by detractors as ammunition with which to reject the other findings that rest on more solid scientific foundations.

Ballydehob, Ireland
1st February 2005


I liked that last part so I put it in bold text.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 01:09:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.



I suppose one prediction out of four is ok



Anyone could have predicted the financial crisis in 2005 ? Really ? Is that why all the TV pundits were laughing at Peter Schiff's predictions ? Now they listen to his every word attentively.



I did for one reason, and one reason only: our economy was based on going into massive amounts of debt. Debt economies always foul up.

The reason the TV pundits didn't see it is because they weren't paying attention to this.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's surprising to me is how many times I've reference Colin Campbell's 1999 book called "The Coming Oil Crisis" which predicted financial problems associated with a peak in oil production but you have not read those posts.


Campell also has a long history of being wrong, and he has had to revise his predictions several times, as the article I linked points out. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Also from a review on Amazon:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')is view of the future also appears tainted by what comes off as his personal desires for a return to the simple life where in his home country (Ireland) "Women remain in the home...Christmas trees will no longer be exported to Germany...pubs will be stocked with home-brewed stout...people will meet in each other's homes for songs and to dance..." He also has decided that the ocean will provide "a near perpetual almost free supply [of energy].



If he actually did say stuff like this, but if he did that throws whatever credibility he had left in the toilet.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 01:21:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.



I suppose one prediction out of four is ok



Anyone could have predicted the financial crisis in 2005 ? Really ? Is that why all the TV pundits were laughing at Peter Schiff's predictions ? Now they listen to his every word attentively.



I did for one reason, and one reason only: our economy was based on going into massive amounts of debt. Debt economies always foul up.

The reason the TV pundits didn't see it is because they weren't paying attention to this.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's surprising to me is how many times I've reference Colin Campbell's 1999 book called "The Coming Oil Crisis" which predicted financial problems associated with a peak in oil production but you have not read those posts.


Campell also has a long history of being wrong, and he has had to revise his predictions several times, as the article I linked points out. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Also from a review on Amazon:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')is view of the future also appears tainted by what comes off as his personal desires for a return to the simple life where in his home country (Ireland) "Women remain in the home...Christmas trees will no longer be exported to Germany...pubs will be stocked with home-brewed stout...people will meet in each other's homes for songs and to dance..." He also has decided that the ocean will provide "a near perpetual almost free supply [of energy].



If he actually did say stuff like this, but if he did that throws whatever credibility he had left in the toilet.


If women were at home raising their kids instead of putting them in day cares so they can work just so they can afford a bigger house and $40,000 SUV's , maybe this generation of kids wouldn't be so effed up. What is wrong with the husband working and the wife taking care of the house and kids ? A simple life would make marriages stronger. The wife wouldn't be so stressed , which adds extra stress on the entire family. Maybe divorce rated wouldn't exceed the current more than 50%. Maybe if she stayed her ass home more and cooked and banged her husband more, they would have a happier marriage. I am so glad my wife doesn't work. I love coming home for "afternoon delights" when the kids are in school.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 04:19:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f women were at home raising their kids instead of putting them in day cares so they can work just so they can afford a bigger house and $40,000 SUV's


They don't do it for that, they do it to be financially independent so that they don't end up trapped in abusive relationships.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is wrong with the husband working and the wife taking care of the house and kids ?


What's wrong with the wife working and the husband taking care of the house and kids?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') simple life would make marriages stronger.


Being a better husband would be even better yet.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Koyaanisqatsi » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 04:40:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Campell also has a long history of being wrong, and he has had to revise his predictions several times, as the article I linked points out. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.


We talked about this already on the 9/11 thread - you said Campbell predicted that peak oil would occur as early as 1990 and I said provide a link? You haven't yet. Campbell has said that what matters is the "Vision of the long decline" and that the precise date isn't important; I hardly think that calling it ten years too soon (1997) discredits him in any way.

By the way there is already a thread on Campbell's predictions:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic32654-0-asc-0.html
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 05:14:26

Because I totally forgot about it. The link I provided in this thread is what you're looking for.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Koyaanisqatsi » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 05:26:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ecause I totally forgot about it. The link I provided in this thread is what you're looking for.


Oops, I had you confused with fluffy, who also posted that link.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic43852-0-asc-645.html
No wonder you forgot about it!

Anyway, it seems his earliest prediction was for 1997 - not too far off, in my view.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 08:03:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')f women were at home raising their kids instead of putting them in day cares so they can work just so they can afford a bigger house and $40,000 SUV's , maybe this generation of kids wouldn't be so effed up. What is wrong with the husband working and the wife taking care of the house and kids ? A simple life would make marriages stronger. The wife wouldn't be so stressed , which adds extra stress on the entire family. Maybe divorce rated wouldn't exceed the current more than 50%. Maybe if she stayed her ass home more and cooked and banged her husband more, they would have a happier marriage. I am so glad my wife doesn't work. I love coming home for "afternoon delights" when the kids are in school.


Wow. Mighty progressive there Armageddon. Just off the top of my head I'd say that kids and housework are F'ing boring. If your wife doesn't mind staying home, then more power to you guys, but that sounds like utter hell to me. I also think the whole nuclear family shtick A: gives kids an exaggerate sense of their own importance in the world, B: makes parents completely obsessed with their kids and C: creates this whole enclavish atmosphere were kids start to think that the particular psychoses of their own parents are "the way it is". Whether it's daycare or babysitters or whatever, I think it's really healthy for kids to spend most of their time outside their own home so they start to understand that their parents just people and their particular weird hangups aren't everybody's weird hangups. Loving your kids is one thing, but making them the center of your world is way OCD and puts a heck of a lot of unnecessary pressure on them. It also invests them and you with an unreasonable sense that the rest of the world will give a s--t about them which I assure you, we don't.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby cube » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 08:26:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '.')...frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen.....
:wink:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby FoolYap » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 08:48:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')f women were at home raising their kids instead of putting them in day cares so they can work just so they can afford a bigger house and $40,000 SUV's , maybe this generation of kids wouldn't be so effed up. What is wrong with the husband working and the wife taking care of the house and kids ? A simple life would make marriages stronger. The wife wouldn't be so stressed , which adds extra stress on the entire family. Maybe divorce rated wouldn't exceed the current more than 50%. Maybe if she stayed her ass home more and cooked and banged her husband more, they would have a happier marriage. I am so glad my wife doesn't work. I love coming home for "afternoon delights" when the kids are in school.


Don't generalize to all marriages and situations.

My wife works, and not so that we can have a bigger house. We drive a Corolla. She works so that 1) we can afford to retire sooner, and 2) she wants the security that comes from having her own income and work history.

Our daughter is in daycare, has many friends there, loves her "teachers" there, loves going.

Our marriage is fine & happy as it is, thanks. No need for one model to be the only way to do it, nor to tear down others' choice as being "wrong".

--Steve
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 08:59:52

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Last edited by bratticus on Fri 05 Dec 2008, 09:35:31, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 09:08:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, it seems his earliest prediction was for 1997 - not too far off, in my view.



10 years is a long time, but that really doesn't seem right. If I made a prediction about something, and changed it X number of times until I finally got it right, that really isn't much of a prediction, especially with economic recessions (since believe it or not, they do happen and can happen for a number of different reasons).

For example, if I predicted the Dow was going to be at 9,000 next year, and it was wrong so I changed my timeframe again and again until 5 years later it finally gets there, would you think I was making an accurate prediction, or just sending my loyal followers on a wild goose chase?
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Koyaanisqatsi » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 04:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, it seems his earliest prediction was for 1997 - not too far off, in my view.



10 years is a long time, but that really doesn't seem right. If I made a prediction about something, and changed it X number of times until I finally got it right, that really isn't much of a prediction, especially with economic recessions (since believe it or not, they do happen and can happen for a number of different reasons).

For example, if I predicted the Dow was going to be at 9,000 next year, and it was wrong so I changed my timeframe again and again until 5 years later it finally gets there, would you think I was making an accurate prediction, or just sending my loyal followers on a wild goose chase?


Peak oil isn't the Dow. This is an unprecedented event in human history. So yes, I give him a lot of credit for calling an event that 99.999% of the word didn't expect within the next 50 years if ever. An event that is fundamental to the very survival of civilization itself. Further, his estimates were based on limited data given that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC states won't provide detailed information about their reserves. The glass is 95% full and you are seeing it as 5% empty.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 07:12:39

I heard somewhere than in 2005 he revised his prediction yet again to 2010. But either way, the credit crunch was caused by too much bad debt and stupid investment decisions, so more like peak idiocy rather than peak oil. Yes, some of the oil price was caused by a supply squeeze, but the majority of it was speculation.


And here we are, out of all these predictions about what was going to happen, here's the only one was right on


There were several major bubbles in the US economy, and oil was one of them.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 08:11:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '1')0 years is a long time, but that really doesn't seem right. If I made a prediction about something, and changed it X number of times until I finally got it right, that really isn't much of a prediction
Colin Campbell, in his joint article with Jean Lahererre in Scientific American, 1998 (I think), he was predicting significant supply problems by 2010. He's kept it about the same, since.

In any case, the whole point of predicting an event that could have severe ramifications for society is to get society to do things differently, so that the event is not disabling. No-one has correctly predicted peak oil yet (unless someone predicted 2008 and oil production never again reaches the level it did this year), but would you rather the world waited for that defining moment or actually did something about it?

Most predictions appear to be converging on a time from now to a couple of decades away. The more believable are much closer than 20 years. Should we wait to see who gets it right, do you think?
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 12:43:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'G')iven how the book was written in 2005, frankly anyone could see the financial crisis was going to happen. Debt levels were skyrocketing, and all of it just looked like a big bubble.



I suppose one prediction out of four is ok



Anyone could have predicted the financial crisis in 2005 ? Really ? Is that why all the TV pundits were laughing at Peter Schiff's predictions ? Now they listen to his every word attentively.



I did for one reason, and one reason only: our economy was based on going into massive amounts of debt. Debt economies always foul up.

The reason the TV pundits didn't see it is because they weren't paying attention to this.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's surprising to me is how many times I've reference Colin Campbell's 1999 book called "The Coming Oil Crisis" which predicted financial problems associated with a peak in oil production but you have not read those posts.


Campell also has a long history of being wrong, and he has had to revise his predictions several times, as the article I linked points out. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Also from a review on Amazon:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')is view of the future also appears tainted by what comes off as his personal desires for a return to the simple life where in his home country (Ireland) "Women remain in the home...Christmas trees will no longer be exported to Germany...pubs will be stocked with home-brewed stout...people will meet in each other's homes for songs and to dance..." He also has decided that the ocean will provide "a near perpetual almost free supply [of energy].



If he actually did say stuff like this, but if he did that throws whatever credibility he had left in the toilet.


If women were at home raising their kids instead of putting them in day cares so they can work just so they can afford a bigger house and $40,000 SUV's , maybe this generation of kids wouldn't be so effed up. What is wrong with the husband working and the wife taking care of the house and kids ? A simple life would make marriages stronger. The wife wouldn't be so stressed , which adds extra stress on the entire family. Maybe divorce rated wouldn't exceed the current more than 50%. Maybe if she stayed her ass home more and cooked and banged her husband more, they would have a happier marriage. I am so glad my wife doesn't work. I love coming home for "afternoon delights" when the kids are in school.


Sorry for the rant. I live in yuppie-ville, and this is what I see too often. I guess I was generalizing too much. My apologies to anyone I offended. There is some truth to it though.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby Koyaanisqatsi » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 15:35:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'I') heard somewhere than in 2005 he revised his prediction yet again to 2010. But either way, the credit crunch was caused by too much bad debt and stupid investment decisions, so more like peak idiocy rather than peak oil. Yes, some of the oil price was caused by a supply squeeze, but the majority of it was speculation.


To my knowledge he never claimed that the financial bubble was due to peak oil.

And the high oil prices were not due to speculation. The price goes up when the economy looks good, it goes down when the economy looks bad. If and when the economy tries to limp out of this recession, prices will skyrocket once again and the economy will be smacked down again. The real question isn't why have prices fallen; the question is, if peak oil isn't real then why haven't prices fallen even farther? Here we are on the verge of a second great depression and oil is still around $40/barrel. But when the economy was booming in the 90's oil was 10-20$. Really we should be seeing oil sink to less than $10 if supply constraints were not a factor.

Campbell underscored that Peak Oil means the end of growth. This is what is happening.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Unread postby outcast » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 19:52:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o my knowledge he never claimed that the financial bubble was due to peak oil.

No, but IIRC he did say the credit crunch was a result of PO.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he price goes up when the economy looks good,

Not always. In the mid 90's the economy was very good, yet oil prices were flat. In the late 90's the economy was the best it had been in decades, and oil prices went DOWN. Besides, after 2001 the economy was kind of coming along, but nothing like what it was in the 90's.

Thing is that after the .com stock bubble burst, people took all that investment money and put it into real estate and commodities. There was a huge amount of loose money from hedge funds, retirement funds, indexes, you name it flooding into the futures markets.
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