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THE Roubini Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Tyler_JC » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 14:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')id_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...


Why should that surprise you?

Most rich people aren't just sitting on mounds of cash. They have most of their wealth invested in equities.

When the stock market crashes, they are disproportionately hurt.

If you work in the post office, it doesn't really matter what happens to the stock market or the economy as a whole.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 15:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')If you work in the post office, it doesn't really matter what happens to the stock market or the economy as a whole.

Unless they fire you as a result. :)
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 17:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'A')ctually, just like the average American, the wealthy are in debt, only more so. Those living off investments have had their income curtailed. So a lot of what ever they are able to save of their investment will be going to maintain living standards and paying down debt just like everyone else.

<b>Pawnshops pocket Picassos, Porsches and platinum as Beverly Hills feels pinch</b>

The worse the economy gets, the better it is for Jordan Tabach-Bank. "Business is booming," says the chief executive of Beverly Loan in Beverly Hills, California.
[/quote]

We will know TSHTF when Harrison Ford gets foreclosed on and Steven Spielberg and George Lucas hit the breadlines at the tent city.

One interesting question about the "lender of last resort" would be how deep their pocket is to keep loaning out money on trinkets like Oscars and Rolex Watches without some OTHER rich bozo who will buy something like that after the loan time period expires. Usually they have to hold onto the stuff for about a year I think before they can put it up for sale. A year from now, how many people will buy an $18,000 Rolex? I suppose if the currency inflates enough it will be pocket change for everyone? Pawn shops around here have the more traditional and useful items for sale. Guns.

An interesting corollary to this would be the question of how Hollywood will go about financing its movies with the credit squeeze? In the Great Depression the film industry thrived of course, and movie stars lived high off the hog. But of course in those days there were still deep pockets around to finance the movies.

Anyhow, mega rich folks definitely are often in debt up to their eyeballs, few plunk down cash to buy a Private Jet. The $20M house has $2M in equity in it, the rest is financed. With most of their wealth tied up in Hedge Funds bleeding red ink like a stuck pig, obviously they have to rush to pull out the money ASAP to try to deleverage everything. That should prove very interesting.

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby JJ » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 18:58:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')id_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...


Why should that surprise you?

Most rich people aren't just sitting on mounds of cash. They have most of their wealth invested in equities.

When the stock market crashes, they are disproportionately hurt.

If you work in the post office, it doesn't really matter what happens to the stock market or the economy as a whole.


my wife cleans houses under the table...one of the homes she cleans is for a lady who works for the post office. she told bing she won't be needing her any more as they laid off half the employees and reduced her hours from 50 to 34 per week...the check she gave Bing bounced and 7 dollar service charge for bad check....(but under the table, so what, right?)
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Twilight » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 19:18:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'A')n interesting corollary to this would be the question of how Hollywood will go about financing its movies with the credit squeeze? In the Great Depression the film industry thrived of course, and movie stars lived high off the hog. But of course in those days there were still deep pockets around to finance the movies.


The reach of Hollywood is worth as much as the military. I doubt the TV and movie industry will face real funding problems. If anything, it may get a much-needed creative boost. Who knows what the Falling Down of these times will be.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Cid_Yama » Sun 09 Nov 2008, 20:46:20

Patience said:

<i>Sat Nov 08, 2008 7:07 pm - Dow futures at 8450, down 324 at the moment<i>

Dow futures now up 228.19

Looks like they are making good use of the weekend so as not to upset the markets.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 17:02:16

All day long the propaganda meisters did their best to play down the hedge fund threat. Their mistake is they talked about it <b>all day</b>, drawing people's attention to it.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 20:51:59

Cid_Yama said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll day long the propaganda meisters did their best to play down the hedge fund threat. Their mistake is they talked about it all day, drawing people's attention to it.


It has been going on forever, it's called "talking their book". What they say is intended to benefit the people talking. To think it might be beneficial to anyone else, is a little naive! Of course if it weren't for naive people, they wouldn't have $18,000 Rolex.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 21:15:56

I guess you missed the point. If they wanted people not to look they needed to quit pointing.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby shortonoil » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 12:03:48

Cid_Yama said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') guess you missed the point. If they wanted people not to look they needed to quit pointing.


It is called misdirection. They are trying to point people into looking in a direction that will benefit them. People are going to start noticing that they have lost their savings, their home, their car, and their job. Those things don't need any external incentive to notice. What needs incentive is to make sure that the "right" reason for these problems is accepted.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby gnm » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 12:17:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'm')y wife cleans houses under the table...one of the homes she cleans is for a lady who works for the post office. she told bing she won't be needing her any more as they laid off half the employees and reduced her hours from 50 to 34 per week...the check she gave Bing bounced and 7 dollar service charge for bad check....(but under the table, so what, right?)


Just a tip, Under the table eh? The bank will happily hand over check deposit records to the IRS to asses "unreported income".

-G

{topic moved from Current Events by Shannymara}
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Cid_Yama » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 14:48:44

<b>Hedge-Fund Assets Shrink by $100 Billion Last Month</b>

The global hedge-fund industry lost $100 billion of assets in October, according to an estimate from Eurekahedge Pte, as firms including Sparx Group Co. were hammered by investor withdrawals.

The biggest market losses since the Great Depression and investor withdrawals hurt the $1.7 trillion hedge-fund industry that manages largely unregulated pools of capital. The index of global funds has lost 11 percent this year, set for the worst performance since 2000 when Eurekahedge began tracking the data.

"As both hedge-fund managers and fund of funds scramble to meet client redemptions, one thing is clear: the industry is going to shrink substantially over the coming months, perhaps as much as 50 percent in terms of both assets under management and number of funds,'' said Kostas Iordanidis, head of hedge funds at Geneva-based Unigestion Holding SA, which invests $3.2 billion in hedge funds worldwide.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ki11ercane » Thu 13 Nov 2008, 18:31:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'm')y wife cleans houses under the table...one of the homes she cleans is for a lady who works for the post office. she told bing she won't be needing her any more as they laid off half the employees and reduced her hours from 50 to 34 per week...the check she gave Bing bounced and 7 dollar service charge for bad check....(but under the table, so what, right?)


Just a tip, Under the table eh? The bank will happily hand over check deposit records to the IRS to asses "unreported income".

-G

{topic moved from Current Events by Shannymara}


Yes that is 100% true. Under the table is cash, no receipt, no nothing. In terms of "accounting" a check can be used as an invoice or receipt and someone can use that to write off the amount when you cash it. This give the check issuer permission to claim it, which becomes a liability to them and an asset to you.

However you can counter this by writing off a certain percentage of home expenses against the income and then claim it. You may even get it down to zero.

As time passes and the economy worsens and your governments at any level find it harder and harder to get revenue you'll find even petty amounts being challenged either by the law or by force.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 03:27:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '
')As time passes and the economy worsens and your governments at any level find it harder and harder to get revenue you'll find even petty amounts being challenged either by the law or by force.

At these times any payment is going to be made either by cash or in barter, so government will have a very difficult and grossly unsuccessful task here.

Cheques, credit cards etc will no longer be used.

Have seen how it works (communism collapse).
At some point government is completely powerless.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby skeptik » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 03:41:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')id_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...
Why should that surprise you?
Most rich people aren't just sitting on mounds of cash. They have most of their wealth invested in equities. When the stock market crashes, they are disproportionately hurt.

Britain's richest man, steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal's personal wealth is down $50+ billion so far this year.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 03:50:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skeptik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')id_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...
Why should that surprise you? Most rich people aren't just sitting on mounds of cash. They have most of their wealth invested in equities. When the stock market crashes, they are disproportionately hurt.
Britain's richest man, steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal's personal wealth is down $50+ billion so far this year.

But in march Forbes had his personal wealth at "only" 45 billion? Link
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby ReverseEngineer » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 04:07:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skeptik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')id_Yama : Wow! Even the super richs are hurt by the crisis...
Why should that surprise you?Most rich people aren't just sitting on mounds of cash. They have most of their wealth invested in equities. When the stock market crashes, they are disproportionately hurt.
Britain's richest man, steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal's personal wealth is down $50+ billion so far this year.
But in march Forbes had his personal wealth at "only" 45 billion? Link

Which would put his net worth at -$5B, curently the World's Largest Individual Debtor? LOL.

Given that many of your "richest" folks own companies with huge liabilities, as the system crashes, they would effectively turn into the world's biggest debtors. If you are going to start imprisoning debtors based on the absolute amount of money they owe, clearly its the formerly rich now in deep debt that are the first to go on a Cockroach Diet by EUs system of retribution.

Who are the HOLDERS of CDS contracts in aggregate estimated at $60T or so? Its NOT J6P who owes chump change on his McMansion. Its only really RICH folks through their Hedge Funds who played in this Poker Game. Unfortunately, said folks who own these contracts don't have the money to pay off on them. But they still OWE it. Now, how many years in debtor's prison would it take you to work off say $1B in debt making License Plates, subsisting on a Cockroach diet? LOL.

Of course nobody is going to pay off any of these debts, not J6P on his mortgage, not the Banksters and Traders either. When the accounting system brings it BELOW zero in aggregate, the system CRASHES. It levels everyone to poverty, and then it becomes a question of POWER.

Power comes in two forms, it comes from holdign control of a military machine, and it comes from the banding together of the disenfranchised. These two forces will come to blows here, and how it turns out in the end is anyone's guess.
See you on the Other Side.

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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Quinny » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 04:21:46

RE - For all you're dramatic prose unfortunately I think you may be..
Wait for it..
well...

right. :(
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 10:34:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'G')iven that many of your "richest" folks own companies with huge liabilities, as the system crashes, they would effectively turn into the world's biggest debtors.

Do you really understand implications of owning of .ltd or .plc company? I suspect you don't.
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Re: Roubini Says 'Panic' May Force Market Shutdown, Fund Fai

Postby Cid_Yama » Fri 14 Nov 2008, 14:01:53

<b>What Sparked the Selloff</b>
<i>Heavy forced selling by highly leveraged hedge funds is partly to blame for the recent market bloodbath.</i>

As their own businesses fell apart, investment bankers and brokerages called in loans to many hedge funds. When stocks plunged, hedge funds got more and more margin calls, forcing them to sell more and more stocks -- setting off a vicious cycle.

How much of October and early November's market breakdown had to do with forced selling by hedge funds? We'll never know precisely, but my guess is that it was a major contributor. As the market decline became more intense, correlations between different kinds of investments increased markedly. Thus, hedge funds that invest in commodities or real estate suffered as badly as did hedge funds that invest in stocks. Everything went down -- and forced selling by hedge funds fueled the conflagration.

What of the future? Many hedge funds have already folded, and more will follow. I, personally, see no reason for the industry to continue to exist. Alan Greenspan argued years ago that hedge funds would bring more liquidity to the markets -- that is, make it easier to buy and sell securities without disturbing their prices. In fact, they did exactly the opposite. They brought record volatility and helped spark a market implosion that imperils our financial system and our economy.
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