by drgoodword » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 01:24:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'A')s I said, there cannot be a bottom yet. Not until the foundation of this financial orgy-bubble-house of cards stablizes, and that would be real estate prices. And we are nowhere near that happening.
Exactly. (And kudos, FreedomSlave...your entire post is on the money.)
The most significant driver (but not the only one) of the current financial crisis is the American housing market crash. This is what has led to a massive increase in foreclosures, to an unprecedented national drop in housing prices, to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth in mortgage-backed securities, to the credit crunch and to the banking crisis.
Yet this prime driver is only at the halfway point. We still have perhaps another 20% to drop in housing prices nationally, and perhaps another 2-3 years for this housing correction to play itself out. Here's some sources for this opinion:
The Economist
Freddie Mac (Finally unable to spin away the truth and not even bothering to try.)
Calculated Risk Discussing Price-To-Rent Ratios
CR Showing How Case-Shiller Is Indicating We're Only Halfway Through The Housing Correction
On top of this housing misery and all its repercussions, we are now entering a true consumer-led recession. The U.S. has now experienced
nine consecutive months of job losses, and in August,
American consumer borrowing dropped for the first time since 1998.
On top of
that, the enormous losses in the stock market and the continuing drop in housing prices make people
feel a lot poorer, despite having the same income (if they avoid losing their jobs). Everyone and every business is already in recession mode, and the self-reinforcing feedback loop of economic contractions will continue for many, many months, leading to a very long and severe recession (if not a full-blown depression).
No, the financial crisis raging through the world economy is nowhere near finished. If this were a ballgame, I'd say we've just wrapped up the second inning. There is much, much more to come.
As for the government (or any power group) having any kind of serious control over world events, I think the wildly desperate and utterly ineffectual actions of the Fed, Treasury, White House and the world's central banks this year show that no one is running this economic mad house, not even the inmates. Earlier this year some forum members said the economy would never be "allowed" to tank before the election. No one is saying that now, are they?