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Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 17:32:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'D')o you know any virgins?
Don't look at me! :roll:

What, you mean Major Nelson isn't asexual?
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 17:45:55

Any question of whether the financial collapse and the start of the Greater Depression are connected? :)

As I said, there cannot be a bottom yet. Not until the foundation of this financial orgy-bubble-house of cards stablizes, and that would be real estate prices. And we are nowhere near that happening.

Not to mention, without transparency in all of the asset valuations and transactions going forward, we're just shoveling shite around looking for the next sucker to buy a bag of it. The extraordinary measures taken so far, particularly the authority just granted to Paulson, does NOTHING to clear this up. It only clouds the picture further while creating favored parties in the "new" fascist economy.

I see more volatility and down movement in the markets for quite some time, but becoming smaller/less dramatic as all the money gets sucked out of our pockets. But the next few days could give us the biggest percentage drops yet...

This is just the opening act - the real pain will follow for many years to come, well after the market "stablizes" at the bottom.

Heinie, I like most of your posts, and your analyses have been very helpful to me in the last few years, so please keep thinking it through - don't panic - and don't "trust your gut" too much - especially when what you probably really mean is that you wish the worst was over. We all do...

Most of us realized that these days would be coming, and now that they have started in earnest, we need to remember the advantages we have created for ourselves by looking around the corner and preparing for the hard times to come. Now is not the time to start second guessing ourselves and denying what the future brings.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 17:59:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arsenal', 'R')eplace virgins with any number of fat cat CEO's or anyone that received millions while the company/economy tanks. Then I would be on board.

Ditto!
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Cabrone » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 18:33:06

Looks like its time to start queuing at the soup kitchen.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'F')YI, on October 19th, 1998, the Dow closed at 8,466.45. Given or taken 100 points, we are where we were 10 years ago!

Apple pie, anyone?


If you factor in inflation and the debt levels now, it's way worse and shooting blanks.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby tex123 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:29:05

Yeah, must be ending, got a letter from my financial advisor dated 10/6. (Got 95% of my money out a couple weeks ago).

Here are some excerpts: "Today we endured a full scale global financial panic; The fed can expand the money supply without limit and, at least for now, is doing exactly that.; There will be mostly positive but some negative outcomes to this measure.; I believe the EESA is necessary and will work. If the $700 billion proves insufficient, then more money will likely be authorized to help resolve the crisis.; I also see that taxpayers might be even more on the hook if, down the road, another large deposit insured bank fails.; There is a silver lining to this dark cloud. Bank lending is not "grinding to a halt" nor is there likely to be a wave of bank failures.; This is not the Great Depression II. ; These problems, while complex, are still narrowly defined.

It is important to remember that the vast majority of U.S. companies remain sound. We are in the midst of a financial crisis that is bringing on a recession, but not economic devastation. Stock prices are being driven down by what I consider to be indiscriminant selling that is not justified by the fundementals to very low valuations, making it a very bad time to abandon the long-term plan for your portfolio. I urge patience and calm."

Comments welcome
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Arsenal » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:30:56

Wow.. I had to wipe the BS off my screen to read all of that.
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby oswald622 » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:33:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'w')hen a power the size of the US falters, historically speaking the tendency points to a collapse to a lower energy state of smaller regional powers, e.g., roman empire into smaller european kingdoms; (also see soviet collapse).

given that, is your position that this is instead more akin to the collapse of the roman republic into the roman empire rather than my previous example?


This issue, I think, marks the sharpest line of distinction between 'classical' Peak Oil thinking and the more conspiratorial varieties. According to the collapse theory of Lundberg, Heinberg, Kunstler, et. al., you're spot on - as less energy becomes available, we ought to see a corresponding decline in complexity. Meanwhile the Alex Jones types predict greater order and a greater centralization of power in '1984' fashion.

My own view lies somewhere between the two. I think that the collapse theory as commonly understood is too simplistic - it assumes that a move into lower energy states would be uniform across all segments of society. But given our hierarchical nature and our advanced tools for coercing and manipulating fellow humans, I find it more likely that power would accumulate toward the top - regionally, continentally, perhaps globally. Concurrently, the lower echelons of society will break down from the many niches of doctor/farmer/lawyer/plumber/waitress/tanning bed attendant/etc. into the far fewer varieties of 'peasant'. This way there can still be a net loss of energy. As far as I know, Mike Ruppert is the only one who approaches this view.

My problem with the Alex Jones types is that they don't ever ascribe a motive for NWO, depopulation schemes, etc. The theory is too incomplete.

As for an historical analogue to what we're seeing...I can't really think of any.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:35:03

Heineken,

NO!
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 21:36:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hat, you mean Major Nelson isn't asexual?

Who is Major Nelson? All I find on google is a video game blogger and an indie rock band.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Arsenal » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 22:05:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hat, you mean Major Nelson isn't asexual?

Who is Major Nelson? All I find on google is a video game blogger and an indie rock band.


I thought you would recognize the Major from your avatar.

Major Nelson

:)

Of course my sarcasm detector might be broken too.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 22:15:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arsenal', 'I') thought you would recognize the Major from your avatar.


Nope. I've actually only seen the show a couple of times. All the mods took oldies TV characters for as their avatar a few months ago. I just didn't see any reason to change it yet.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 22:25:42

The Nikkei is currently down over 10%. I wonder if they'll close it?
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 22:50:25

Is the Nikkei down already? I really don't see how it can keep going down and down.

There has to be a bottom. I think we'll see it in the next year or two anyway.

The stock market ended up at 10% of it's pre-crash value in 1932. Are we headed to 1400 from 14,000?

It seems like the sky is really falling this time.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 22:54:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')There has to be a bottom. I think we'll see it in the next year or two anyway.


Probably next month or two unless the interbank lending, short term lending frees up. That is going to cripple multinational corporations that drive virtually all global trade (unless they have huge cash reserves).
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby seazar » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 23:19:40

http://mailcenter3.comcast.net/wmc/v/wm ... 470&sid=c0

Your link is broken; and Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum.) Thank you.-FL
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 01:12:35

Your link is broken seazar. Unless you were trying to point to a story about a rise in Chearleeding injuries.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby drgoodword » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 01:24:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'A')s I said, there cannot be a bottom yet. Not until the foundation of this financial orgy-bubble-house of cards stablizes, and that would be real estate prices. And we are nowhere near that happening.

Exactly. (And kudos, FreedomSlave...your entire post is on the money.)
The most significant driver (but not the only one) of the current financial crisis is the American housing market crash. This is what has led to a massive increase in foreclosures, to an unprecedented national drop in housing prices, to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth in mortgage-backed securities, to the credit crunch and to the banking crisis.

Yet this prime driver is only at the halfway point. We still have perhaps another 20% to drop in housing prices nationally, and perhaps another 2-3 years for this housing correction to play itself out. Here's some sources for this opinion:

The Economist

Freddie Mac (Finally unable to spin away the truth and not even bothering to try.)

Calculated Risk Discussing Price-To-Rent Ratios

CR Showing How Case-Shiller Is Indicating We're Only Halfway Through The Housing Correction

On top of this housing misery and all its repercussions, we are now entering a true consumer-led recession. The U.S. has now experienced nine consecutive months of job losses, and in August, American consumer borrowing dropped for the first time since 1998.

On top of that, the enormous losses in the stock market and the continuing drop in housing prices make people feel a lot poorer, despite having the same income (if they avoid losing their jobs). Everyone and every business is already in recession mode, and the self-reinforcing feedback loop of economic contractions will continue for many, many months, leading to a very long and severe recession (if not a full-blown depression).

No, the financial crisis raging through the world economy is nowhere near finished. If this were a ballgame, I'd say we've just wrapped up the second inning. There is much, much more to come.

As for the government (or any power group) having any kind of serious control over world events, I think the wildly desperate and utterly ineffectual actions of the Fed, Treasury, White House and the world's central banks this year show that no one is running this economic mad house, not even the inmates. Earlier this year some forum members said the economy would never be "allowed" to tank before the election. No one is saying that now, are they?
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Eli » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 01:32:54

This financial crisis is ending, just like this.
link

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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 01:35:13

Thanks, drgoodword.

I appreciate it.
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