[jasonraymondson]

We are not in financial crisis.

We are in a financial meltdown and the rivers are turning to blood

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y brother, who is sort of a genius (used to be president of a Nasdaq-listed tech company and has a Harvard Ph.D.), says he thinks the price of an average house will have to fall to about $75,000 before a bottom is reached in real estate. That's a 70% drop from here. Crikey.

[shady28]

October will likely continue to be a disaster, I would expect a major panic selloff in the next 2 weeks.

Historically, November and December are good months for the markets. September is the single worst month for markets in % declines, with October typically setting the low and having the largest single day declines. I would not look for breathing room for another 2 - 3 weeks.

Applying this to the election year, my guess is that the markets will see the new president as a savior and mostly rise in Nov, Dec, and possibly January.

Feb and March would not be unlikely targets for the start of the next leg down in the financial meltdown.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '5')500 is the new CEILING.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', 'O')ctober will likely continue to be a disaster, I would expect a major panic selloff in the next 2 weeks.

Historically, November and December are good months for the markets. September is the single worst month for markets in % declines, with October typically setting the low and having the largest single day declines. I would not look for breathing room for another 2 - 3 weeks.

Applying this to the election year, my guess is that the markets will see the new president as a savior and mostly rise in Nov, Dec, and possibly January.

Feb and March would not be unlikely targets for the start of the next leg down in the financial meltdown.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', ' ')says he thinks the price of an average house will have to fall to about $75,000 before a bottom is reached in real estate. That's a 70% drop from here. Crikey.

[Jotapay]

You guys can see what's going to happen when J6P realizes his bank had all reserve requirements removed? You guys think this could be getting better?

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'E')nding, you say?

Begun, the Greater Depression has.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'U')nfortunately, Zardoz, you did not start this thread and therefore have not the latititude to chastise sincere posters as to the topic. To suggest that "the Greater Depression" is off-topic for a thread titled "Is the Financial Crisis Ending" is a stretch.

[FreedomSlave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'E')nding, you say?

Begun, the Greater Depression has.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '
')To clarify, the financial crisis cannot abate until bank real estate assets stop dropping in value, i.e., the housing and commercial real estate markets must hit bottom....

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Man, if you don't toe the end-of-the-world-next-week party line around here, you sure catch hell, don't you?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'M')aybe we need to define "financial crisis". Seems we're all talking about different things.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '.')..To clarify, the financial crisis cannot abate until bank real estate assets stop dropping in value, i.e., the housing and commercial real estate markets must hit bottom before sound lending decisions can be made and the value of real estate backed derivatives can be determined. It all rests on a turnaround in real estate, and that deflationary process is far from over and will only get worse as the recent shocks work their way through the larger economy.

Better?

[Falconoffury]

The Financial Crisis will only end in a sense that it will transform into a crisis of currency and global trade. It is like Peter Schiff has said. The Fed will solve the banking crisis, but create an even bigger crisis in the process.

[Eli]

This thing is no where near over and actually it is getting much worse.

The credit freeze is just now affecting employment but unemployment is about to rocket up.

Also no one has an answer for the 60-70 trillion dollar CDS market blow up.

Unfortunately for everyone the blow up of Iceland will cause a blow up in the CDS market.

[Spanktron9]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'A')s Rocc alluded to, Lehman's CDO redemptions are triggered tomorrow (Friday).
Unless the PTB have rigged it somehow to hide that there there is a significant re-valuation of cdo derivatives tomorrow that will give a clear signal of how much this heavily leveraged paper is worth (zero).

I would expect a bad reaction, particularly since the G7 don't meet till Saturday.
US markets are opening very soft today and I would expect that same sort of pattern as yesterday with a late day collapse.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'U')nfortunately, Zardoz, you did not start this thread and therefore have not the latititude to chastise sincere posters as to the topic. To suggest that "the Greater Depression" is off-topic for a thread titled "Is the Financial Crisis Ending" is a stretch.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'A')s Rocc alluded to, Lehman's CDO redemptions are triggered tomorrow (Friday).
Unless the PTB have rigged it somehow to hide that there there is a significant re-valuation of cdo derivatives tomorrow that will give a clear signal of how much this heavily leveraged paper is worth (zero).

I would expect a bad reaction, particularly since the G7 don't meet till Saturday.
US markets are opening very soft today and I would expect that same sort of pattern as yesterday with a late day collapse.

[FreedomSlave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '.')..To clarify, the financial crisis cannot abate until bank real estate assets stop dropping in value, i.e., the housing and commercial real estate markets must hit bottom before sound lending decisions can be made and the value of real estate backed derivatives can be determined. It all rests on a turnaround in real estate, and that deflationary process is far from over and will only get worse as the recent shocks work their way through the larger economy.

Better?