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Russian secondary peak approaches?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Tanada » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 09:13:55

Is anyone here actually surprised? I am more impressed that they kept it going this long than I am surprised the party is coming to an end. Proof positive IMO that the Soviet system had to have been horribly inefficient in producing oil from these fields. If the first run had been more efficient they would already be into steep declines year over year, just like Cantarell and Yibal the Russian fields are old and worn.

Modern Technology has given them a heck of a last huzzah, but they should have used it to convert infrastructure to alternatives cause when it goes this time it really is gone.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Armageddon » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 10:43:48

I wonder who will decline faster, Russia or SA ?
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby DantesPeak » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 10:54:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly two of Russia's 14 largest oil producing fields were opened after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and half of the 14 were more than 60 percent depleted in 2006. As fields are depleted, pumping oil out of them generally becomes harder and more expensive.


A very hard hitting article. This is pretty conclusive proof that they are not only past peak but will have production sliding downhill at accelerating rates. Perhaps the last year or two has only been held up by newer fields near the Pacific.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Cashmere » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 14:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hanks for the article vision-master.

Why are we wasting our time in Afghanistan? We've known since 2000 that the Kashagan field is only 13 billion barrels. It'll all go for Russian and European consumption.

The Americanskies are dumber than the Russkies.


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Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Roccland » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 14:16:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hanks for the article vision-master.

Why are we wasting our time in Afghanistan? We've known since 2000 that the Kashagan field is only 13 billion barrels. It'll all go for Russian and European consumption.

The Americanskies are dumber than the Russkies.


Heroin.


Bam!

Poppy production op 2000% since bush invaded that country...for no apparent reason.

Amerika is a heroin junky folks...really...we are.

And when we can't get our fix - we get violent...really violent.
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Serial_Worrier » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 15:08:03

Basically Putin and his gang of criminals pumped ever last drop of oil to increase their cash horde. For what purpose, who knows.
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby Bas » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 15:40:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly two of Russia's 14 largest oil producing fields were opened after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and half of the 14 were more than 60 percent depleted in 2006. As fields are depleted, pumping oil out of them generally becomes harder and more expensive.


A very hard hitting article. This is pretty conclusive proof that they are not only past peak but will have production sliding downhill at accelerating rates. Perhaps the last year or two has only been held up by newer fields near the Pacific.


I'm also afraid that Russia might go into northsea/cantarell-style decline soon, but the 0.5% decline in the first half of this year could be a result of the usual non-geological factors, like politics and maintanance. I guess we'll know soon enough, within a year or two.
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby nobodypanic » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 17:11:24

i wonder why they want control of the BTC and georgia...?
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby nobodypanic » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 17:32:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 'i') wonder why they want control of the BTC and georgia...?
It's where the oil pipelines go. That region has always been the hot spot for European petroleum access. Look at a map WW1-Berlin/Bagdad Railway. WWII-German march on Caspian derailed at Stalingrad. Today-Chechnya, Georgia etc.

right on, but rhetorical question on my part. :P
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Re: Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Postby gw » Sun 24 Aug 2008, 18:00:44

Russia may still have substantial undeveloped resources. Just like everywhere else, the cheaper stuff is largely tapped out, but exploitable resources still exist if sufficient investment is made.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Russian government will double state spending on oil exploration to 2020 to $23 billion with the focus on oil in eastern Siberia to ensure a “good” replenishment of reserves, the country’s Natural Resources Minister Yury Trutnev said yesterday.

“Two years ago, we said the growth rate was falling, and we said this was bad for Russia, remember?” Trutnev said in televised remarks after the meeting. “Now we’re saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real”.


Russian production may be headed for near-term decline, but since Russia still has unexploited natural resources it is too early to make predictions on the long-term decline rate.

Russia plans to spend more on production

Caspian Oil is expected to provide somewhere around 12% of new global oil development in the next two decades. Some estimates are that it could produce as much as 6MB/day.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he development of Caspian oil and gas could make a significant contribution to world energy supplies, while providing attractive investment and business opportunities to international entities. The reason for the delay in its development is that the littoral countries cannot agree on the division of the sea. In this paper, the trade-off between holding out for a larger share of the Caspian and immediate development is explored, providing the countries with the basis for an agreement.

The Caspian Sea contains six separate hydrocarbon basins. As of June 2002, forty oil and gas deposits had been discovered along with more than 400 promising structures. Proven oil reserves for the Caspian are placed at about ten billion barrels, while potential reserves are estimated at about 233 billion barrels (Energy Information Administration, 2002). Total proven oil reserves in the Caspian comprise approximately one percent of the world's total proven (ninety percent probable) oil reserves, comparable to those of Norway and Algeria and about half of the proven reserves of the United States or Nigeria.


Caspian oil development: the sooner the better; a trade-off analysis and a basis for agreement

Sorting out who owns what in the Caspian still remains as an unresolved "above-ground" factor, the other being how the oil will be transported it out of the Caspian region.

Imagine trying to sort out oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico, but with additional players mucking about, like Cuba, Russia and Venezuela. Furthermore, the Caspian is land-locked so you have to deal with how to get the oil out.
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March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
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Re: Russia Bourse Begins Trading Urals Oil

Postby gmin » Wed 27 Aug 2008, 18:21:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', '
')For example, in 2007 China will likely be able to buy Venezuelan-sourced oil via the euro-based Iranian oil bourse and conduct those transactions in euros.


can you please get into a little bit more detail with this example?
here is my understanding of how it works, based on your explanation and some other internet based sources.
1."Persian Gulf blend" is the benchmark traded on IOB
2.differential between Venezuelan-sourced oil and the benchmark is also traded on IOB, other participating suppliers, e.g, Urals, have their own differential listed as well.
3.in order to get delivery of Venezuelan-sourced oil, China has to hold contracts of both the benchmark and the differential.
4.arbitrage by the refineries will keep the differentials reasonably priced.

One particular question I have is, can Russia sell their oil production on NYMEX in WTI and deliver in Urals?
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Re: Russia Bourse Begins Trading Urals Oil

Postby JPL » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 18:19:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gmin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', '
')For example, in 2007 China will likely be able to buy Venezuelan-sourced oil via the euro-based Iranian oil bourse and conduct those transactions in euros.


can you please get into a little bit more detail with this example?
here is my understanding of how it works, based on your explanation and some other internet based sources.
1."Persian Gulf blend" is the benchmark traded on IOB
2.differential between Venezuelan-sourced oil and the benchmark is also traded on IOB, other participating suppliers, e.g, Urals, have their own differential listed as well.
3.in order to get delivery of Venezuelan-sourced oil, China has to hold contracts of both the benchmark and the differential.
4.arbitrage by the refineries will keep the differentials reasonably priced.

One particular question I have is, can Russia sell their oil production on NYMEX in WTI and deliver in Urals?


Oh wonderful, I too welcome our new russian [s]dis-information overlords[/s] friends.

BTW bud this is a 2-year old thread. Just a tip (grin).

JP
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The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before


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Russia tries to raise oil production

Postby Graeme » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 22:37:40

Russia tries to raise oil production

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith analysts expecting production to fall this year for the first time in a decade, Russian companies are pushing to find new oil in remote regions such as the Arctic Shelf and East Siberia — but their efforts are hampered by crippling taxes that give the government much of the recent gains from high oil prices.

Oil production reached 9.87 million barrels per day last year, a 2.3 percent rise. It is down 0.5 percent in the first eight months of the year. While the Energy Ministry is sticking with its forecast of 1 percent production growth this year, analysts expect production to decline by up to 0.5 percent — its first decline in 10 years — followed by a rebound next year, as the already approved tax cuts take effect.


AP
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Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas cartel?

Postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 23 Dec 2008, 08:51:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he era of cheap gas is coming to an end, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has told ministers from the world's major gas-exporting countries.

Iran and Libya are among the countries attending the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Moscow.

Mr Putin said the cost of extracting gas was rising sharply, therefore "the era of cheap energy resources, of cheap gas, is of course coming to an end".

Some observers say the GECF may develop into an Opec-style producers' cartel.

Mr Putin said Russia was ready to set up the GECF headquarters in St Petersburg and give it full diplomatic status.


Link
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Postby kublikhan » Tue 23 Dec 2008, 18:43:27

With all of the new interest in extracting natural gas from unconventional sources like shale gas, I am not sure how much muscle a natural gas cartel would have.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Postby dorlomin » Tue 23 Dec 2008, 19:11:52

The UK has just built a brand new LNG terminal over at Milford Haven. As the UK is hooked up to Germany with gas pipelines, that means that the UK and Germany can buy from South Pars\ North Field or other majors fields that export via LNG.

Putins problem is he is running out of gas to keep selling and its getting more expensive to develop new sources. He is starting to find himself in a tough old bind.

Running an oil and gas empire is easy when the prices keep going up.....
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