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Russian secondary peak approaches?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 23 Dec 2008, 20:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'P')utins problem is he is running out of gas to keep selling and its getting more expensive to develop new sources. He is starting to find himself in a tough old bind. Running an oil and gas empire is easy when the prices keep going up.....
Exactly. High oil prices may have wiped out Russia's debt and allowed them to build up a nice cushion of reserves, but it also masked many of the structural problems in Russia. Putin could have continued Russia's reforms during his second term. But he choose instead to put off painful reforms and simply ride out the booming oil and gas profits. If oil prices fall much further and stay that way for a protracted period, Russia may be back begging the IMF for money:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If oil prices in 2009 and 2010 average $30 a barrel, that would be a nightmare scenario for a global economy," Zeljko Bogetic, the World Bank's chief economist in Russia told investors on Friday. "The pressures on the current account and public finances in Russia would quickly rise to a point where the financing constraint would become so sharp that it's possible even to envisage Russia's return from a creditor to international organizations to a borrower."
World Bank: Russia may Need Help If Oil Prices Fall More
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby cube » Wed 24 Dec 2008, 02:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', 'T')hats fine.

The west is broke, China in meltdown & Putin wants to put the screws on hard.

No money mate, West can't afford your gas. East neither.

Form your cartell. You wont sell it - just look at the current oil price.

Tough sh1t Putin, youre too late to the party, as usual

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You make a good point, but you're forgetting something.
Wealth is relative.
If you move down 2 steps but I move down only 1, then that means I'm gaining on you.

Being an energy exporting nation in an economically collapsed world might not be so bad ---> "relatively speaking" :-D
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby MartinGr » Wed 24 Dec 2008, 05:33:50

Falling oil prices have hurt Russia to the point of them being willing to cooperate with OPEC.
Also considering that both Iran and Russian economies have been severely damages, I can see why they want to form something like so-called Gas Troika.
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Wed 24 Dec 2008, 06:37:09

Loser.
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 24 Dec 2008, 10:04:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'B')eing an energy exporting nation in an economically collapsed world might not be so bad ---> "relatively speaking" :-D
Um... If the economy has collapsed how is anyone going to be exporting anything?
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby ndemeis » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 07:32:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'P')utins problem is he is running out of gas to keep selling and its getting more expensive to develop new sources. He is starting to find himself in a tough old bind. Running an oil and gas empire is easy when the prices keep going up.....
Exactly. High oil prices may have wiped out Russia's debt and allowed them to build up a nice cushion of reserves, but it also masked many of the structural problems in Russia. Putin could have continued Russia's reforms during his second term. But he choose instead to put off painful reforms and simply ride out the booming oil and gas profits. If oil prices fall much further and stay that way for a protracted period, Russia may be back begging the IMF for money:


I have been witnessing the consequencese of this for the last few months. Putin keeps blaming the west, of course its not his fault for banking on oil to sustain his country for the next few decades...

Now the Ruble is tumbling, which is good and bad for me now. And talking with people who are working construction here many projects have stopped as well as lots of construction workers aren't getting paid. People seem to be starting to finally be worrying over here. I'm starting to wondering what its gonna be like if oil and gas stay this low for awhile.
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Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 11:18:15

Series Title: Crude Oil Production, Russia; Thousand Barrels per Day:
1992 01 798293.535
1992 02 87870•445
1992 03 267970•531
1992 04 298211•652
1992 05 377693.016
1992 06 737679.371
1992 07 627611.129
1992 08 597397•309
1992 09 997260•828
1992 10 747247.176
1992 11 377197.137
1992 12 267160•738
1993 01 157194.074
1993 02 927180•238
1993 03 637088.008
1993 04 737069.563
1993 05 606912•766
1993 06 356825•148
1993 07 786566.895
1993 08 696479.277
1993 09 366377.824
1993 10 346373.211
1993 11 466377.824
1993 12 96350•148
1994 01 676482.408
1994 02 456231.838
1994 03 536180•791
1994 04 116018•381
--snip—
2007 01 719420.000
2007 02 739460.000
2007 03 439472•909
2007 04 409369.266
2007 05 249390•000
2007 06 489440•000
2007 07 749460•000
2007 08 79390•000
2007 09 629520.000
2007 10 569500.000
2007 11 159425.000
2007 12 209400•000
2008 01 669359.000
2008 02 559362•000
2008 03 79334•000
2008 04 19296•000
2008 05 389315.000
2008 06 319334•000
2008 07 179344•000
2008 08 999409.000
2008 09 89405.800
2008 10 939430.000
2008 11 349359.100
2008 12 849332.800
2009 01 289343•000
2009 02 769331.000
2009 03 769388.000
Economagic Disclaimer: I have NO way of knowing the accuracy of these numbers. Actually, I would be shocked if anyone, anywhere, knew the true numbers for any field in any area.
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby fletch_961 » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 15:43:38

Ferret,

Something must have happened in the cut 'n paste process. There are two extra digits in front of what their actual was. The first line says they were producing 798,293.535 thousand barrels a day (10x actual world production), while your link shows 8,293.535 thousand barrels a day (~10% of world production).
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 15:54:15

I know-I saw that. When you just look at the list on the original page, it does not show up; Once you highlight the list, bingo! there are the extra numbers.
I don't know what they indicate, so I did not remove them. Perhaps someone else who is familiar with these numbers can fill us in.
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby fletch_961 » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 16:33:28

They look random, maybe something to keep people from cutting and pasting the data. They don't fit anywhere with the message you are trying to send at least.

For those that don't follow links- it says 8.2 Mbpd in '92, drops to 5.8 M in '97, then rises to 9.4 M in '08.
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 18:05:22

That they are random and placed there to confuse the cut-n-pasters is quite possible. I was wondering if they were an indicator of where the figures were gathered.
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby fletch_961 » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 19:17:17

Their "subscribe here" data matches the free stuff from the eia.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Oil.html

The eia lists it sources,

Sources
Asia Pulse
Associated Press
BBC Monitoring International Reports
Central Asia & Caucasus Business Report
Caspian News Agency, Caspian Business Report
CIA World Factbook
Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Pres s
The Economist, Energy Day
The Financial Times
FSU Oil and Gas Monitor
Nefte Compass (Energy Intelligence)
CIS and Eastern European Energy Databook
Global Insight/ World Markets Research Center .
Institute of Energy Policy (RU)
Interfax News Agency
IHS Energy
The Moscow Times
Oil and Gas Journal
Oil & Capital (in Russian)
Petroleum Economist
Petroleum Finance Corporation
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Reuters
Russian Energy Monthly
U.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Re: Crude Oil Production, Russia 1992-2009

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 21:37:46

Thank you, Fletch, for noting that here!
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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 30 Sep 2013, 10:21:22

http://english.pravda.ru/business/compa ... _crisis-0/

Russia has only 7 years before oil crisis?


13.09.2013

Russia has only 7 years before oil crisis?. 51098.jpeg

Russia is facing difficult times. Britain's largest bank HSBC forecasts that revenues from oil exports will drop significantly. In seven years. The British believe the oil sources will be depleted and will not be able to provide the current level of income. The Russian side is taking steps to maintain production at the current levels in anticipation of such a turn......
******************************************************************

Peak Oil is real for the UK for the USA and for the former UDSSR => last but not least the whole world.

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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 30 Sep 2013, 10:37:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'h')ttp://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/13-09-2013/125651-russia_oil_crisis-0/
Huge news but lots of special pleading about taxes so perhaps a small pinch of salt required.
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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Sep 2013, 12:12:36

Russia's hiccup in the 90s and increase in the oughtys is a big reason we haven't been in decline since '05... but they're looking a little flat lately:

[url="http://crudeoilpeak.info/us-shale-oil-hides-crude-oil-peak-in-rest-of-world"]New charts from CrudeOilPeak.info[/url]

Image

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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby JV153 » Sat 23 Nov 2013, 15:25:18

Well, the Russians may say they don't have that much oil - but show talk can cause prices to rise and then they turn the spigots on. DOE lists Russia's reserves as 70 Gb but I wonder if they don't have quite a bit more. We don't really know.
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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 23 Nov 2013, 17:24:51

"DOE lists Russia's reserves as 70 GB" But at what future price of oil: $100/bbl, $40/bbl, $130/bbl? And at any assumed price what does the projection of the future production rate from Russia look like? After all, how much oil Russia has in the ground isn't relevant to the global economy until it reaches the surface.
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Re: Putin: The Era of Cheap Gas is (nearly) over; n. gas car

Unread postby americandream » Sat 23 Nov 2013, 19:13:00

Not quite.

Interernational capitalists pool their liquidity in a bid to accumulate on that liquidity, year by year as energy is the driver via which labour value can be extracted (think cheap Chinese factories backed by worldwide funding).

If this energy dries up (from no matter where it is sourced), dries up to the consumer or the producer or both which is more logical) this eats away at the accumulation process, giving rise to stagflation and accompanying credit crises (think more QE) and a peaking of accumulation.

In fact it is more correct to say that the peaking of accumulation IS THE peaking to watch for. Peak oil will precede that and set the stage for the fragmenting of global capital and the onset of decoupling. Capitalism cannot function in a nation state alone as there of is no room for accumulation in a confined dynamic. It needs infinity (or the appearance of infinity...ie growth without limits...globalisation and a currency underwritten by labour value....NOT gold)

Putin being well read on Marx will be aware of this. He also knows he has no scope for maneouvre and is probably prepping as we type (prepping himself and his family for the inevitable showdown.)

My suggestion is get debt free, income independent (even if you have to play the markets...and get a community around you...if Russia is on the road to energy exhaustion....the risk of peak accumulation draws closer.)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', 'T')hats fine.

The west is broke, China in meltdown & Putin wants to put the screws on hard.

No money mate, West can't afford your gas. East neither.

Form your cartell. You wont sell it - just look at the current oil price.

Tough sh1t Putin, youre too late to the party, as usual

Gasmon
You make a good point, but you're forgetting something.
Wealth is relative.
If you move down 2 steps but I move down only 1, then that means I'm gaining on you.

Being an energy exporting nation in an economically collapsed world might not be so bad ---> "relatively speaking" :-D
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Re: Russian secondary peak approaches?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 06 Dec 2013, 09:55:50

Do we have any members from and in Russia these days? We keep getting a lot of different stories about doings in Russia but an actual on the ground report from someone immersed in the culture would be very helpful.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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