Russian secondary peak approaches?

by **Ardalla** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 14:26:44

I'll just post this for information purposes. Comments welcome.

http://www.slb.com/news/story.cfm?storyid=617688

by **Andy** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 14:36:25

If that is the case then we are in even bigger trouble than I realized. I thought the Russians had enough steam to grow until about 2007/2008 to their secondary peak. If that is the case, then Non-OPEC output is definitely in its terminal decline and the world could actually be at peak right now or within a year or two. Heaven help us because that is not even the 5 - 6 years I thought we had.

by **Andy** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 14:41:41

If that is the case then we are in even bigger trouble than I realized. I thought the Russians had enough steam to grow until about 2007/2008 to their secondary peak. If that is the case, then Non-OPEC output is definitely in its terminal decline and the world could actually be at peak right now or within a year or two. Heaven help us because that is not even the 5 - 6 years I thought we had.

by **Ardalla** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 14:43:16

Yes, my sentiments exactly.

Maybe Matt can use this for his radio show tonight.

by **Aaron** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 14:50:12

http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=461&mode=&order=0&thold=0

by **Ardalla** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 15:40:51

I am somewhat surprised that the head of the Russian FEA would make this statement. Seems like, if the Russians knew this to be true, they would just sit on the info.

I've been constantly impressed by the Russian government's behavior for the last 15 years. Not to gloss over the negatives, but what country (empire) in history would have consented to the massive loss of territory that we saw in the early 90s? What would the US government say if Texans voted for independence? "Sure, you can be independent. When every Texan is DEAD!" How would the Brits react if Scotland voted for independence?

I get the impression that Putin is a very sharp poker player. The Russians are positioning themselves well for peak oil.

Note here that I am not forgetting the Soviet death camps, environmental damage, militarist moves in E. Europe etc.. Just making a very limited observation.

by **Ardalla** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 16:24:10

I think you are right. I'm surprised that the three countries you mention have not already joined the Russian Federation. It just seems crazy not to unite. They have so much in common economically. Of course I can understand the reticence of Kazahkstan.

Here's another link I just found re: natural gas in Alberta. An overall decline through at least 2013.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=841&ncid=841&e=10&u=/nm/20040603/wl_canada_nm/canada_energy_alberta_col

by **Andy** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 16:35:15

I agree that Russia is well positioned for Peak Oil. The natural gas reserves, large land mass and relatively small population will do them well. Canada could also potentially do well but the fact that they are neighbours with the U.S. makes them vulnerable to desperate measures by the U.S.

by **smiley** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 17:49:14

I thought Russia's production hit a ceiling at the moment because of pipeline constraints.

A decrease in production would however point to a production problems, not transport.

This might be temporary but if not it would spell bad news since Russia is not supposed to peak before 2010 according to Campbells estimates.

http://www.asponews.org/ASPO.newsletter.031.php
(country assessment Russia)

Maybe even Campbell was too optimistic.

by **Ardalla** » Sat 05 Jun 2004, 21:43:07

This story was from the Dow Jones Newswire. It was also reported in slightly different form on the AP. Obviously it is a summary of an interview with Oganesyan, but I can't locate the source.

It could mean output will dip in 2005 and then rise by a moderate amount in later years. The AP article gives it a spin by saying it is expected that Russian oil output will stabilize in coming years. Not clear whether Oganesyan used the word 'stabilize' or what exactly he said. Perhaps someone can locate the text of the original interview. I'll keep looking.

edit:

Here is a another direct quote from the interview:

<<``Output growth rate already started to slow, as the period of easy-to-recover oil is finishing,'' Oganesyan told Bloomberg in an interview in Moscow. ``God help us to stabilize at this level.'' >>

Website · by **Aldert** » Sun 06 Jun 2004, 07:16:14

emm can you post a link to that article ardella?
thats some very serious stuff.

by **Ardalla** » Sun 06 Jun 2004, 13:38:28

This story is being tossed around on the newswires and being reported almost exactly the same everywhere I look. My original post contains the link.

The small quote above was an additional statement I came across, but I didn't get a link to it. The only additional info given was just that quote.

by **Guest** » Sat 04 Sep 2004, 22:59:29

Production for Russia and her former satellites are up, up, up:
Moscow Times
link
link
link

Questions, then:
How does Russia play this new-found power? Will It Be the New Saudi? (Hint, they surpassed them in production for the first half of the year but right now they are neck and neck at around 9.6 mb/d)

Did Putin (or Yeltsin and the current/previous establishment play their cards right? (timing steadily rising production (2 peaks instead of one long decline) v. declines or capacity breaches in other countries?

I seem to remember Dr. Campbell saying something about Russia just a few years back, when they we are 7mb/d, and how it was an anomaly. Did Russia's increase in production take lots by surprise? How long can they sustain such output?

by **Keith_McClary** » Sun 05 Sep 2004, 02:00:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '[')url=http://www.gateway2russia.com/art/Unrubricated/Slavnefts%20August%20crude%20oil%20production%20up%202121%20to%201933%20mln%20tons,%20Jan-Aug%20output%20up%202308%20to%201428%20mln%20tons_250894.html]link[/url]

by **TheDucker** » Sun 05 Sep 2004, 02:22:17

What Scooby Doo says when he buys prophylactics at the counter... Sorry, but I couldn't resist!

by **Evltre** » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 03:43:51

Anyone know much about this - someone tried to tell me today that under the Yamal Peninsula there is 10x more oil that Saudi? Are they desperate?

by **No-Oil** » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 05:16:17

Probably grasping at straws, but that is irrelevant. If you look at some of the other threads on Global Warming, then we need to stop looking for more oil & accept that we need to reduce our emmissions today. I don't subscribe to the idea that we are solely responsible for global warming, but I do agree that Global Warming is a reality & that we may be partly responsible. Either way, we need to stop burning fossil fuel, or we will become the global Easter Islanders !

Chris W.

by **Evltre** » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 05:40:58

I know that! But that doesn't help me in a debate with the in laws

by **marek** » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 07:18:02

This journal article talks about the supply potential of Russia

Dienes, L. (2004). Observations on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil and the Complexities of Siberia. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 45, No. 5, pp. 319-345.

by **small_steps** » Tue 18 Jan 2005, 16:52:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Evltre', 'A')nyone know much about this - someone tried to tell me today that under the Yamal Peninsula there is 10x more oil that Saudi? Are they desperate?

Russian secondary peak approaches?

Russian secondary peak approaches?

:)

Some Russian Good News?

Re: Some Good News?

Russian Oil - Yamal Peninsula

Re: Russian Oil - Yamal Peninsula

Who is online