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Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins

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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 23:01:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '
')OK, so whose historic in-town neighborhood shall we raze to make room for high-density housing for all these former suburbanites?
Perhaps we can raze the thousands of acres of elevated urban freeways, which were 'eminent domained' and constructed on the former sites of similar historic in-town neighborhoods, usually where some brown people lived?
Do you mean those expressways that are used by the trucks that bring fresh food directly to the grocery stores in your city?

Because people didn't eat before the existence of urban freeways, or truck deliveries? [smilie=bduh.gif]


Well let's see... a freeway provides easy travel through a city, allowing fast, efficient delivery of fresh food. But then maybe you don't mind empty shelves, waiting in long lines to buy meat or bread, or paying much more for food than you do now.


Urban freeways aren't preventing any of those issues from occurring. A boulevard with a few stoplights isn't going to add a few cents to my carton of eggs, especially when you consider that "fast, efficient" freeways are mired in gridlock over 8 hours a day.

The trucking-dependent society that we've become is that way by government fiat and design, not by some self-evident superiority of mode.
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Mon 18 Aug 2008, 23:34:46, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 23:15:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')BTW emersonbiggins there seems to be a universal agreement that life after PO == a decreased standard of living but exactly how much?
Personally I'm thinking early 1900's maybe (1900 - 1920)
what about you?


That sounds about right. No doubt I think we will still have most of the accoutrements of the Industrial Revolution, e.g. mechanized farming (in some fashion), indoor plumbing, household electricity, and perhaps the Internet, but we are definitely in for a return to the halcyon days of the 1920s or 30s.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby Javaman » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 05:47:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '
')OK, so whose historic in-town neighborhood shall we raze to make room for high-density housing for all these former suburbanites?
Perhaps we can raze the thousands of acres of elevated urban freeways, which were 'eminent domained' and constructed on the former sites of similar historic in-town neighborhoods, usually where some brown people lived?
Do you mean those expressways that are used by the trucks that bring fresh food directly to the grocery stores in your city?

Because people didn't eat before the existence of urban freeways, or truck deliveries? [smilie=bduh.gif]


Well let's see... a freeway provides easy travel through a city, allowing fast, efficient delivery of fresh food. But then maybe you don't mind empty shelves, waiting in long lines to buy meat or bread, or paying much more for food than you do now.

Urban freeways aren't preventing any of those issues from occurring. A boulevard with a few stoplights isn't going to add a few cents to my carton of eggs, especially when you consider that "fast, efficient" freeways are mired in gridlock over 8 hours a day.

The trucking-dependent society that we've become is that way by government fiat and design, not by some self-evident superiority of mode.

Once the truck takes the exit closest to your neighborhood, it encounters only a few stoplights before reaching the store. Without the freeway it would have to negotiate scores of traffic signals and busy intersections, even outside of rush hour. The suburbs around here aren't mired in "8 hours of gridlock" but apparently the streets in your densely-populated city must be.

How would you deliver food and other goods to stores, if not by truck?
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 06:40:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
That sounds about right. No doubt I think we will still have most of the accoutrements of the Industrial Revolution, e.g. mechanized farming (in some fashion), indoor plumbing, household electricity, and perhaps the Internet, but we are definitely in for a return to the halcyon days of the 1920s or 30s.


Assuming the Nukes don't get us and the fish survive the Ice Cap melt down, I would still venture that a 1920's lifestyle in the near term is unlikely. I'm still looking at 1750 as the spin down point. Reason for this is how vast the dislocation is in the short term.

While I think long term infrastructure systems based on sustainable energy can be built and raise standards of living into the 1900s, short term these structures can't be built in a collapsing econonomy. Immediate fixes that can happen use really primitive techonology, and whhile sustainable also result in a large die off. In other words, projecting just 100 years into the future (in the absence of complete ecosystem failure or thermonuclear war), you go through a period where you rely mostly on human and animal labor to perform the tasks we do today.

Eventually, you could work your way back up the ladder to 1900s technology, but this IMHO will take at least 500 years to achieve after the melt down. Big population crash, lots of dislocation, its only after the dust settles that rebuilding to 1900 can start again, and then it has to be done mostly through human and animal labor. Its going to take a while before there is enough surplus wealth just derived from suc labor to do anyhting more than meet subsistence requirements, and actually this is negative for quite some time. Progressive die off over a generation or two.

A guess. In the absence of complete wipeout due to environmental consequences or thermonuclear warfare, it takes about 100 years to sink down to 1750 levels. Another 100 years to gain surplus, and then 200-300 more to work gradually back up the ladder to a technological culture based on sustainable resources. A 500 year rebuild to about 1920, but if accomplished, it could accelerate again from there. 500 years is a long time. Its possible along that road Fusion power can be worked out in some fashion. Long as the knowledge survives, this is possible.

For the next 100 years though, we most defintiely are on a slide down the hill, on the fast track to 1750.

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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 09:36:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'O')K, so whose historic in-town neighborhood shall we raze to make room for high-density housing for all these former suburbanites?
Perhaps we can raze the thousands of acres of elevated urban freeways, which were 'eminent domained' and constructed on the former sites of similar historic in-town neighborhoods, usually where some brown people lived?

Do you mean those expressways that are used by the trucks that bring fresh food directly to the grocery stores in your city?


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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 09:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')hat I am against is this delusional fantasy that we can all live in 2,000 sq ft single family homes (with a front and back yard) and all be within 10 minute walking distance to a train station. THAT is what I am against.

It's also a delusional fantasy that we can comperess all suburban areas back into the nearest cities like sardine cans without sucking away more quality of life than adapting to new realities in the 'burbs. The population of the US supposedly is headed to over 400 million by 2025, mostly due to the collapse of Mexico.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby CarlosFerreira » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 09:48:52

I believe the question is what kind of transportation and distribution systems can possibly supply the suburbs. People will have ti live somewhere, and the suburbs at least have a lawn you could probably raise some potatoes on, if things get tough and you have the skills to do it. Maintaining the suburbs is crucial - too many people live there, and there's nowhere they could relocate to - but shops and jobs have to move closer.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby vision-master » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 09:50:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')hat sounds about right. No doubt I think we will still have most of the accoutrements of the Industrial Revolution, e.g. mechanized farming (in some fashion), indoor plumbing, household electricity, and perhaps the Internet, but we are definitely in for a return to the halcyon days of the 1920s or 30s.

Assuming the Nukes don't get us and the fish survive the Ice Cap melt down, I would still venture that a 1920's lifestyle in the near term is unlikely. I'm still looking at 1750 as the spin down point. Reason for this is how vast the dislocation is in the short term.
{text deleted-excessive reposting-FL}
A 500 year rebuild to about 1920, but if accomplished, it could accelerate again from there. 500 years is a long time. Its possible along that road Fusion power can be worked out in some fashion. Long as the knowledge survives, this is possible. For the next 100 years though, we most defintiely are on a slide down the hill, on the fast track to 1750.

No. Why? A new energy source will be available soon. Just think of the circle.
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky


I'll leave it at that. :razz:
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 10:26:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', '
')Urban freeways aren't preventing any of those issues from occurring. A boulevard with a few stoplights isn't going to add a few cents to my carton of eggs, especially when you consider that "fast, efficient" freeways are mired in gridlock over 8 hours a day. The trucking-dependent society that we've become is that way by government fiat and design, not by some self-evident superiority of mode.
Once the truck takes the exit closest to your neighborhood, it encounters only a few stoplights before reaching the store. Without the freeway it would have to negotiate scores of traffic signals and busy intersections, even outside of rush hour. The suburbs around here aren't mired in "8 hours of gridlock" but apparently the streets in your densely-populated city must be.How would you deliver food and other goods to stores, if not by truck?

Groceries don't need to be delivered to your local store by an 80,000-lb rig - THAT is a fact. Grocery stores don't need to approach the size of 200,000 sq ft warehouses - ALSO a fact.

Now, in our 250-mi radius national distribution network that has grown up around the interstate system, obviously what we see now is the most efficient way to deliver those goods, with the system we currently have. It is not necessarily cost effective to continue doing this with the energy input variable accounting for a larger percentage of each and every truckload of goods.

For the record, I advocate relocalization, where a major percentage of a region's food consumption is produced IN that region, allowing for a much finer grain of distribution networks to emerge, utilizing smaller trucks, rail, and encouraging small business in the process.

This is a far cry from the infamous "3,000 mile caesar salad" that we have grown accustomed to in today's world.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby shortonoil » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 11:04:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'N')o. Why? A new energy source will be available soon. Just think of the circle.
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky
Will it go round in circles
Will it fly high like a bird up in the sky
I'll leave it at that.

New energy supply - possible. The problem is, what will we use it with. Our present infrastructure is based on oil. All the energy in the galaxy is worthless, unless you have some way of utilizing it! We don’t and won’t for at least another forty years! A new civilization and all of its accompanying accouterments doesn’t just appear some afternoon!
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 11:10:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')his is a far cry from the infamous "3,000 mile caesar salad" that we have grown accustomed to in today's world.

Right, but that still only deals with transport issue, not fertilizer. Relocalization is ultimately going to recede all the way to people's front lawn, after which those in the city are going to find themselves SOL.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 11:20:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')his is a far cry from the infamous "3,000 mile caesar salad" that we have grown accustomed to in today's world.
Right, but that still only deals with transport issue, not fertilizer. Relocalization is ultimately going to recede all the way to people's front lawn, after which those in the city are going to find themselves SOL.

It's not necessarily asses to elbows in [most] cities, either, though, as community gardens and flat roofs offer opportunities for raised-bed gardening, in addition to the accessory outdoor spaces that often accompany early 20c houses and small apartment buildings.

Let's recall that no suburban lot (and certainly no city lot) is large enough to provide even most of the calorie requirements for those who reside there, though. It is not a solution in and of itself.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby vision-master » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 11:33:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'N')ew energy supply - possible. The problem is, what will we use it with. Our present infrastructure is based on oil. All the energy in the galaxy is worthless, unless you have some way of utilizing it! We don’t and won’t for at least another forty years! A new civilization and all of its accompanying accouterments doesn’t just appear some afternoon!

So true.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby VMarcHart » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 13:24:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')he population of the US supposedly is headed to over 400 million by 2025, mostly due to the collapse of Mexico.
Et tu?
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby cube » Tue 19 Aug 2008, 19:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '.')..
It's also a delusional fantasy that we can comperess all suburban areas back into the nearest cities like sardine cans without sucking away more quality of life than adapting to new realities in the 'burbs. The population of the US supposedly is headed to over 400 million by 2025, mostly due to the collapse of Mexico.
so the entire premise of your argument is:
"It will not happen, because people do not want it to happen."

umm, sorry. That doesn't cut the mustard.
It is what people can *afford* that will ultimately decide what's going to happen, and NOT what people *want*.
I see absolutely no historical example of a society where people lived in 2,000 sq ft houses (with a front and back yard) and was able to sustain this without the advent of private car ownership.

My vision of the future sees a HARD crash.
Private ownership of cars will not exist (except for the rich).
And without that, it is impossible for suburbia to survive.
Private ownership of the automobile is the "umbilical cord" that sustains suburbia.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby Javaman » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 06:30:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'G')roceries don't need to be delivered to your local store by an 80,000-lb rig - THAT is a fact. Grocery stores don't need to approach the size of 200,000 sq ft warehouses - ALSO a fact.
Now, in our 250-mi radius national distribution network that has grown up around the interstate system, obviously what we see now is the most efficient way to deliver those goods, with the system we currently have. It is not necessarily cost effective to continue doing this with the energy input variable accounting for a larger percentage of each and every truckload of goods.
For the record, I advocate relocalization, where a major percentage of a region's food consumption is produced IN that region, allowing for a much finer grain of distribution networks to emerge, utilizing smaller trucks, rail, and encouraging small business in the process.
This is a far cry from the infamous "3,000 mile caesar salad" that we have grown accustomed to in today's world.

If each person, living in a city with a population density of 3500/square mile, ate a pound of food per day, you would need to supply your stores with 24,500 pounds of food per week, assuming each store served a one-square mile area. An 80,000 pound truck carrying 50,000 pounds could supply four of those stores by making two trips per week.
With your system, how many smaller trucks are you going to use? How much fuel do you expect to save?
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby emersonbiggins » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 11:45:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Javaman', 'I')f each person, living in a city with a population density of 3500/square mile, ate a pound of food per day, you would need to supply your stores with 24,500 pounds of food per week, assuming each store served a one-square mile area. An 80,000 pound truck carrying 50,000 pounds could supply four of those stores by making two trips per week. With your system, how many smaller trucks are you going to use? How much fuel do you expect to save?

We're going to use 2 smaller trucks for each tractor-trailer, each with a 20-23,000-lb payload and 33,000 GVWR.

Here's one such truck:
Mitsubishi Fuso FM330, which gets about twice the mileage of a tractor-trailer, at 15 MPG. Additional gas expenditures for double the trucks is a net zero, if not slightly in favor of the smaller trucks, as large tractor-trailers do quite well, e.g. Wal-Mart's 'efficient' fleet, to get 7 MPG on the highway.

Now, we are not necessarily hiring more drivers, or buying additional trucks, as we can simply increase the frequency of their delivery trips, so that no additional costs are incurred on the labor front. This increased frequency capitalizes on the bonus of added time, as the distribution of goods would also be relocalized and assisted by high-speed bidirectional freight rail to quickly move hundreds of tons of perishable goods inland from the ports, and not in the form of hundreds of trucks scattered all of the country, with their owners scurrilously trying to stay in the black for another month.

Urban interstates could give way to more pedestrian-scaled boulevards, and street widths and curb radii could be reduced accordingly, so that building and maintaining streets does not become cost-onerous under the weight of 80,000-lb rigs and increasingly limited budgets.

The real money savings would come in the form of less maintenance on the existing interstate system, and truckers beginning to pay for their commensurate share of damage on the system, something that does not take place today.
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Wed 20 Aug 2008, 11:51:00, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby CarlosFerreira » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 11:48:58

I'll be nice and just say we, in Europe, have been using those trucks for a long time. The US has a long way to go until achieving the kind of energy efficiency Europe has. There's a lot of fat to trim there!
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 11:51:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I')t's not necessarily asses to elbows in [most] cities, either,

They might be if the suburbs folded into them.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 't')hough, as community gardens and flat roofs offer opportunities for raised-bed gardening,

At the expense of using those roofs for solar panels or rainwater collection. Also, in a large apartment complex I just think the square footage of land devoted to horticulture per capita, no matter what you do, will be almost meaningless.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'L')et's recall that no suburban lot (and certainly no city lot) is large enough to provide even most of the calorie requirements for those who reside there, though.

That's not true, at least in theory. I've been shopping around for suburban lots in the Boston area myself and I can find some properties with 20K or more square foot of lawn space available, and at no particular price premium. (Buyers I think are mostly fixated on the house, not the lot size right nwo). That's far above and beyond the 1,000 square foot per person that Ludi's book recommendation "One Circle" says can be used.

Also, if there is a partial abandonment of the burbs, then it would potentially present opportunities for the remaining residents to buy out adjacent properties, tear down the buildings, and expand their growing areas.
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Re: The true end of suburbia begins

Postby mos6507 » Wed 20 Aug 2008, 12:03:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')y vision of the future sees a HARD crash. Private ownership of cars will not exist (except for the rich). And without that, it is impossible for suburbia to survive.Private ownership of the automobile is the "umbilical cord" that sustains suburbia

But your vision is incomplete. It doesn't outline what will happen. It just outlines what won't happen. It's fuelled by the Kunstler anti-suburbia manifesto which seems to gloss over more universal overshoot mathematics. It just assumes that we can "game" the system and avoid die-off by shoehorning everybody into close quarters with eachother. That may be the case in some regions with a low enough population, but certainly won't work everywhere.

A hard crash, to me, means "the system" starts to break down. City living by definition means a functioning "system". Utilities have to function. Water, electricity, waste disposal, centralized food production and distribution to the city. The city residents are totally at the mercy of everything still working at a macro level. They have no safety net. That to me is a risky gamble.
Last edited by mos6507 on Wed 20 Aug 2008, 12:05:58, edited 1 time in total.
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