[JoeW]

this site is like crack. once you get your first hit, you're locked in for life.

hopefully you are doing a better job of preparing than i am. i was like a deer in the headlights for a long time...procrastinating...waiting for some ray of hope to emerge while monitoring my consumption and finances in case there was no way out of this.

i once read on this site, "it's a big shit sandwich, and we're all gonna have to take a bite." i think that's a quote from a movie or something. pretty much sums up our predicament.

[MonteQuest]

Welcome forum, please?

[eric012]

I recently visited the talbot farmers market and I was so inspired, I thought it was a great way of presentation people what can be achieved.
__________________________________________
Eric
Debt Consolidation

[Farknight]

Hi Elisse,

Why I am not from Australia I am 50% Aussie as my Dad is from SA, he grew up in a very little town called "New Residence" on the Murray River. I often fantasize about going there to live as from his stories they were far off the grid when he was young with no electricity, their own water supply and large orchards of apricots (I believe ya'll call them "blocks"). I do have a great deal of family in Australia, mainly Adelaide and up north.

I live in Virginia which I must say is a pretty nice place (at least my area). I have worked for the local township here for almost 20 years, first as a police officer and now as a contracts/grants specialist. I was forced to retire early from police work due to a line of duty injury with serious consequences that remains with me forever now.

I believe we are seeing the start of the PO world but that it will be a "fits and starts" type of change and not the massive down slope off the mesa some predict. There is plenty of oil out there as well as plenty of demand and the only sure thing is that prices will stabilize then rise, fall awhile and repeat, perhaps rising ever higher each cycle. Yes, eventually, total supply destruction will hit and either the world has been steadily working towards weaning us off that last drop of oil or it has not. In the former case, we transition to whatever awaits our heirs and continue the reign of Humankind on earth. In the latter scenario rent Mad Max for the results.

In my experience, reality always falls somewhere "in the middle". What this means is open to conjecture but I surmise civilization will continue but that much of the energy intensive activities will become luxuries (such as air travel, vacations overseas, etc.), these will be dictated by price with the elite always having access. Overall, I predict a slowly growing economic malaise, punctuated by ever briefer rallys and relative prosperity.

All the folks I read of that prepare for some level of self-reliance, albeit from total "off grid" living" to storing a few months of food are being prudent. Self-help will be the order of the day. Working in local government I am already seeing how our budgets are deteriorating and with them services. This will only continue with core services of public safety and sanitation being the lynch pins.
We must learn to become as self-reliant in as many areas as possible, from food, to monetary savings, to property attainment. We must avoid the consumer/debt trap sprung for us by capitalism at all costs. Rather than living totally "off the grid" in some remote site I suggest living "off the bling" in an area with a strong local community, preferably a small but vibrant town with access to very arable farmland and farms nearby.

It is sad how greed has literally driven mankind to this precipice. But given our proclivities is that so unexpected? Overall I remain optimistic, at least at a local level. My fear is that at the global level some madmen or mad nation will start Armageddon and then all bets are off.

As with the price of oil, any crazy terrorist attack or massive storm is a sure signal prices will spike at the pump. This is the reality in the days of PO and it is indeed our reality whether the MSM wishes to acknowledge it or not. We had best adjust in our daily lives as much as possible or face possible bankruptcy or homelessness.

PS: I like your name, my eldest daughter's is spelled Elyse.

[chanpuru]

Hi everyone, i'm just some everyday guy who recently became a grad student in geography. in Okinawa right now.

was thinking of studying about territorial disputes between Japan and China/Russia over energy rich islands.. but such things move slow as molasses and generally go nowhere after decades of dialogue, and ultimately such disputes primarily serve the interest of core powers.

not sure what to study now but because Okinawa is a periphery, and I have an interest in other pacific islands and newly independent countries (like those in Central Asia and Europe) which are all periphery areas.. perhaps i'll take a look at how peak oil could affect them, especially since many of them have economies that are tourism dependent, and thus, dependent on air transportation.

as for me myself.. I have an interest in aviation, ethnicities, politics, pacific stuff military stuff (although ironically i oppose the many bases on Okinawa, as well as the militant history of Japan). kinda wanna do something that combines all these interests

[Cashmere]

Welcome aboard.

I encourage you to read broadly at PeakOil.com.

I have a feeling that, after much reading, you'll find your path.

[Ferretlover]

Welcome, Chanpuru. I think that studying the earth is a wise decision. It certainly is going through a lot of changes.

[mark]

chanpuru, please tell me all about Okinawa. I was there during the Vietnam war for 18 months and loved the island and the people. How is life under Japanese rule? Are US bases still all over the island? I'd really like to know about life there now; thinking about bugging out there soon to escape the approaching US collapse.

[chanpuru]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'c')hanpuru, please tell me all about Okinawa. I was there during the Vietnam war for 18 months and loved the island and the people. How is life under Japanese rule? Are US bases still all over the island? I'd really like to know about life there now; thinking about bugging out there soon to escape the approaching US collapse.

[bodigami]

hi. What's this medication for? (if you want to tell...) I'm medicated too, but in a few months I will be off those pills.

Did you like anime? I'm a big fan... sometimes I like to draw manga, besides just watching. I'm about to see princess mononoke (probably tomorrow).

[Shaka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anagami', 'h')i. What's this medication for? (if you want to tell...) I'm medicated too, but in a few months I will be off those pills.
Did you like anime? I'm a big fan... sometimes I like to draw manga, besides just watching. I'm about to see princess mononoke (probably tomorrow).

[coyote]

Hi chanpuru, welcome. I'm curious about your geography degree - what are some of the topics of study for an advanced degree in that subject?

[slesh]

Massive Infrastructure projects focused on wind in the midwest and solar in the southwest but mainly, hydro all over the place. Terraform the land and build massive resevoirs and dams, utilize synthetic lubricants to keep the bearings turning.
Its no longer a matter of maybe, but it now must be done, starting immediately, the wealth is leaving, the wells are drying up. The energy wars have already started (ala Iraq).
We have a slight window to make the transition now, but the clock is ticking and we haven't even really budged.

[Ferretlover]

Welcome, Slesh, to PeakOil.com!
Please read as much as you can (taking breaks as needed-there are a Lot of overwhelming topics here), and don't forget to check the archives.
Please ask questions as the need arises.

[slesh]

Thanks again ferretlover.
For all you folks out there I am Idustrial Electrician. I've been traveling the country for a while now trying to build as many clean coal burners, natural gas and windmills as possible.
We are going to fall short i'm afraid, way short of what our needs are going to be.
Hydro, i've been talking with many in my industry and it appears that if we are to move to electric we are going to have to go through a natural gas phase, maybe 10 to 15 years. Hopefully by that time we can get enough hydro up and running to sustain some of the population. Anyways, good to meet you all and i'll be happy to answer any questions should I actually know the answer.
Good luck to all of you.

[Cashmere]

Welcome aboard.

I'd go further. Not only have we not gained ground, but on a per capita basis, we've lost ground.

As for Natural Gas - based on what I've read, natural gas production is barely keeping up with usage, and we're potentially looking at a near term spike that will devastate both home heating/cooking usage and electrical generation.

This chart tells the whole story:



and this one is the epilogue:


It's absolutely insane that we burn this beautiful energy source to spin electric generators.

Natural Gas reserves are harder to pin down than oil, but we know that, when a well starts to go, it goes from producing to nonproducing quickly.

The parabolic nature of the end of the graph tells the story in horrid detail. In a few years, it is very possible that either electricity costs will increase 10 fold or we will be forced to stop using NG as a source of electricity.

Rolling blackouts w/in 10 years on the East Coast is my best guess.

[slesh]

Cashmere, I would agree, except I was there last year when they discovered the second largest NG field in NA by Jacksonhole WY.
The NG burner I helped put up in Provo, UT has the ability to be converted to a coal burner fairly quickly.
I cannot stress enough the emense importance hydro is going to play in years to come. The only reason I came back home to western new york (niagara falls) was for some training on the power vista here and what to expect when building commences on the hydro projects around the country.
My only true fear lies in timing. I can tell anyone upfront we acted to late and for that I am truely sorry. Many of my collegues and I were so busy (10 to 12 hour days 6 to 7 days a week climbing steel) we honestly did not see this coming so soon. I just had a chance to catch my breathe for the last couple of months before I head back out to continue building the power structure.

[alpha480v]

Hello and welcome to the forum!

[cipi604]

Slesh, I believe 2011 will be the crossroads year, although I can tell you I was born in Romania and we had controled electricity power downs daily between 1986-1989 and it wasn't such a hell, but we were dirt poor... if you understand what I mean.

[slesh]

Your up the there by the St. Lawerance Hydro project cipi604, What is Canada's intended response to this crises? Are you guys going to throw in with us in attempt to build the grid up? Let me know what you find out, and thanx for posting.