[BigTex]

A better question is probably which countries have ALREADY failed as a result of peak oil-related factors.

Nigeria
Iraq
Afghanistan

Given that the effects of peak oil are so diffused, it's reasonable to conclude that virtually any failed state from here out has failed, in part, because of a peak oil-related cause.

On the TO FAIL list:

Mexico
Venezuela
Iran
Saudi Arabia

Being an oil producer is likely to be just as dangerous as being an oil importer in the future, since Iraq-type engagements are likely to continue as the oil wealth under weak political control will be subject to neighborhood (and cross town) bullies.

For some oil producers, the future will be a bit like driving a nice car through a really bad neighborhood.

[VMarcHart]

I think neither the richest or the poorest countries. The former have cushioning, the latter don't have anything to lose. I think the first to fail are ones in the middle; Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, Greece, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'B')eing an oil producer is likely to be just as dangerous as being an oil importer in the future, since Iraq-type engagements are likely to continue as the oil wealth under weak political control will be subject to neighborhood (and cross town) bullies.

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') think neither the richest or the poorest countries. The former have cushioning, the latter don't have anything to lose. I think the first to fail are ones in the middle; Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, Greece, etc..

[Hagakure_Leofman]

Hasn't the USA fulled tanked already?

I heard on the radio yesterday that your housing market hasn't fallen that far (relatively speaking) since the great depression. People owing more than their houses are worth.

Of course, the corporate media don't want to say anything scary to the 'consumers' - or they will lose out themselves. Remember that the people who are providing all of the 'public' information about this stuff have highly vested interests. Especially vested in keeping things from getting worst (at least in rhetoric, if not reality).

Remember that the great depression didn't happen over night. It took years for people to realize the sorry state of things. Each month, worst and worst news.

[SoylentGreen]

Iran,theyre gonna be bloomin in radioactive kosher mushrooms real soon.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'U')mmm, how is Brazil, an energy independent nation on track to become a net exporter with some of the largest new fields in decades, on track to fail?

[Hagakure_Leofman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', 'H')ows about just one state that almost solely depends on tourism for it's survival. And practically everything has to be shipped or flown in, food, clothes, fuel, etc. They are starting to panic.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') think neither the richest or the poorest countries. The former have cushioning, the latter don't have anything to lose. I think the first to fail are ones in the middle; Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, Greece, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'B')eing an oil producer is likely to be just as dangerous as being an oil importer in the future, since Iraq-type engagements are likely to continue as the oil wealth under weak political control will be subject to neighborhood (and cross town) bullies.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', '.')...
Remember that the great depression didn't happen over night. It took years for people to realize the sorry state of things. Each month, worst and worst news.

[TheDude]

October 29th was far from the only factor in causing the GD, too. Weimar hyperinflation and ultimately defaulting on WWI reparations, for instance.

TOD had a great Drumbeat post with page after page of rosy outlooks from late '29/early '30. I mean, denial on parade.

Mexico eased up on Pemex a few years ago - originally snapped up 60% of revenue in taxes, Calderon convinced Parliament to bring it down to 40%, to, you know, spur exploration and development. Since the only big prospects for Mexico seem to be UDW fields they need outside assistance with - which will face massive political opposition, they still celebrate the day they kicked the gringo oil corps out of the country in '38 - and the recent report that all of Pemex's windfall has been plowed into maintaining the subsidies - they - and we - are truly in a world of tamale squeezings.