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PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 03:37:35

BT wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')rBill, I am befuddled, bewildered and confused as to why there are very few fuel efficient vehicles for sale in the U.S. It's incredible that the automakers are suffering the way they are, and they are not even offering what the people NEED right now.


The Big Three could not make money selling small and medium sized cars in competition with the Japanese, so they sold their customers on the safety aspects of larger vehicles.

In response the Japanese and the Germans had to offer both larger models, and bigger engines, in response to US customer demand for those larger, more powerful autos. Competitively they could not concede that market share. Meanwhile they developed smarter, more fuel-efficient models elsewhere using profits (partially) made in the USA.

If I am not mistaken I think that both GM (Opel) and Ford are profitable in Europe? That is where they are designing well-built cars. However, the sticking point is price. Not only do you have to market 2.0 liter, 4-cylinder, manual transmission autos instead of 4.0 liters, 8-cylinder, automatics to N. Americans, but you have to convince them to pay the same price (or more) for that better engineering.

Timing is everything. That job of selling becomes easier when gasoline is now $4 per gallon, but, of course, due to the credit crisis and weak US economy the car buyer has less credit to buy those newer models, so they are stuck with dinosaurs that are expensive to drive, but harder to sell.

You're right. If they are upside down on a full-size SUV they can no longer afford to drive they will default on their car loan. Those receivables have been securitized and have been bought by banks and investors. Those obligations will become worth far less or worthless. Ditto for credit card receivables. Those losses will further exacerbate the current credit crisis. We should not confuse demand with the ability to pay. They are related, but quite different!
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 08:12:40

There is a part of me that thinks that the U.S. automakers will make a fortune in the next 10 years as people in the U.S. demand some kind of efficient transportation to get them around in an affordable manner.

If these companies already have these models for sale in Europe, at some point it will become cost effective to sell them here (I would think). Creative financing programs ought to help make them more affordable. If we can use dumb financing schemes to buy things we don't need, I would hope we could use them to buy things we do need.

As I read over my post, though, I wonder if maybe it's not about 10 years too late to do what I am suggesting.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 08:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'T')here is a part of me that thinks that the U.S. automakers will make a fortune in the next 10 years as people in the U.S. demand some kind of efficient transportation to get them around in an affordable manner.

If these companies already have these models for sale in Europe, at some point it will become cost effective to sell them here (I would think). Creative financing programs ought to help make them more affordable. If we can use dumb financing schemes to buy things we don't need, I would hope we could use them to buy things we do need.

As I read over my post, though, I wonder if maybe it's not about 10 years too late to do what I am suggesting.



I had lunch this weekend with a Turkish friend that lives in Germany. She says that it is cheaper to buy a BMW in the USA and have it shipped back and re-registered in Europe than to buy the same car in Germany. For about 2000 euros there is a company that specializes in this re-import business, including re-registering the car and making sure it meets local specs. On a delivered basis the car still works out to be about 15.000 euros cheaper. If that type of reverse arbitrage is profitable then it means that car prices in the US are markedly cheaper than in Europe. Probably due to the stronger euro, but also due to car makers trying to capture market share by offering cars at or below cost.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby patience » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 13:05:05

I'm thinking that if there was a big demand in the US for cheap, efficient cars, somebody would be selling them here. I don't see car lots full of 40-50 mpg cars for sale, and I think it is because too many people here think of their dinosaur SUV's as status symbols. I know a lot of folks who say they would be "embarrassed" to drive a tiny car. Yeah, they have a lot to learn. But, they haven't learned it YET.

edit: The above mostly applies to city dwellers around here. The poorer people out here in the sticks have gotten over the status thing, and ARE looking for any form of cheap transportation.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby truecougarblue » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 13:23:59

I had occasion this morning to take two different cars to fill up at the local Sam's Club.
$4.52/gal. The place was deserted, or nearly so. The only other vehicle there was a motorcyle rider who filled his tank for $21.00.

This was 6:30am for the first car 7:00am for the second. Normally this would be the beginning of drive time since I'm in an exurb. The shell station where I get my cheap refill of soda was empty at 7:30am.

It's definitely being felt out there.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Starvid » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 14:29:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'U')nrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.
The riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean.

You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 14:38:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'U')nrest at 5.
Protests at 6.
Riots at 8-10.

After that it won't matter much.
The riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean.

You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.


Or American.

Anyway, it's not the gas riots I'm worried about. It's the food riots.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby truecougarblue » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 19:24:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean.

You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.


Watch your sarcasm lest what has recently befallen Spain come and visit you.

Also, please remember that a huge percentage of what your average Swede pays at the pump comes back around to society as a whole as public transit, free healthcare, etc. Sweden to U.S. is apples and oranges I'm afraid.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 02:40:47

I dunno? I can appreciate the remark or dark humor if you will. The Spanish strike and the French riot at the drop of a hat. That is an exceptable form of protest for them and for their leaders.

Spanish fishermen have fished their seas dry and now they're working on everyone else's. They already get diesel without any taxes. They are striking because they now want a 40% subsidy. That and higher quotas for non-existant fish as well as import duties on fish coming into the EU.

Sometimes you have to see the hubris for what it is, and realize that it is unrealistic expectations and not genuine economic hard times. There is a good reason why Spain (and Portugal) were so poor prior to joining the EU and getting access to a larger public trough.

As a European resident and taxpayer as well as a concerned citizen Spanish water policies are an absolute environmental disgrace, and the amount of corruption surrounding land speculation and development in Spain would make an Italian blush. If Scandinavians want to criticize that in jest or in ernst then I think they have a perfect right as EU citizens.

I would not want to be in the USA post peak oil, but then I have no particular desire to live there even on a good day. If the criticism stings it is probably close to the mark. Got God and Guns? ; - )
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby cube » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 04:22:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..
I would not want to be in the USA post peak oil, but then I have no particular desire to live there even on a good day. If the criticism stings it is probably close to the mark. Got God and Guns? ; - )
No criticism taken MrBill.
Buy a car, get a free gun at Missouri car dealer
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')ANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - A Missouri car dealer said on Thursday sales have soared at his auto and truck business since launching a promotion this week that promises buyers a free handgun or a $250 gas card with every purchase.

If anybody is curious what is the difference between a Canadian and an American.....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very buyer so far "except one guy from Canada and one old guy" has elected to take the gun, Muller said. Muller recommends his customers select a Kel-Tec .380 pistol.

"It's a nice little handgun that fits in your pocket," he said.

But wait folks it gets better. There is a growing movement in America called
Open Carry
Open carry is shorthand terminology for "openly carrying a firearm in public." In the United States, the degrees of legality of open carry varies.

here's a map of the USA listing which states allow civilian possession of machine guns. :)
http://www.opencarry.org/machinegun.html
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Cashmere » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 12:39:30

You know, I generally appreciate the EU posters here as being worldly.

But Starvid, you're coming dangerously close to being a EuroDoucheBag:

You wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean. You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.


It's all about oil. Call me in 20 years when you don't have any oil and your 75% socialist tax rate is no longer salable.


And by the way - Sweden is not the U.S..

You have a socialist country. Your sheep are used to having 75% of their income dumped into a communal heap.

So you get your "free" health care and your welfare benefits and your trains. And you're used to that.

Not in the U.S..

So 8 bucks here is not the same as 8 bucks in the middle of f-cking nowhere socialist Europe.

Try to get your arms around that.

One last thing - nobody gives a shit about Sweden, except maybe the Swedes.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:13:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('truecougarblue', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean.

You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.


Watch your sarcasm lest what has recently befallen Spain come and visit you.

Also, please remember that a huge percentage of what your average Swede pays at the pump comes back around to society as a whole as public transit, free healthcare, etc. Sweden to U.S. is apples and oranges I'm afraid.
Well, the riots were real bad here in the 70's too when we paid about as much as we do now, but when our incomes were much lower.

We don't have a culture of panic and rioting. We have a culture of grumbling, tightening our belts and working harder.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:16:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[')url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_carry]Open Carry[/url]
Open carry is shorthand terminology for "openly carrying a firearm in public." In the United States, the degrees of legality of open carry varies.

here's a map of the USA listing which states allow civilian possession of machine guns. :)
http://www.opencarry.org/machinegun.html
My god I do love the great US of A. :P

But what do they mean with machine gun? 12,7mm full automatic fire? :-D
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby joelcolorado » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:17:29

I love to see the Europeans responses online here. Of course we saved their asses in TWO world wars which they have YET to pay the USA back for in loans etc. A loan means REPAYMENT, and no one wants to do that for gods sake.

And it will happen again when a rogue nation gets a nuke and threatens Europe with it. Like Iran is doing now. Once they can deliver one, they will begin to dictate their will on Spain and France and you others and you will cry running to old Uncle Sam once again. Hell you rolled over for Hitler and we had to come clear over there to rescue you. After it was over, you would have thot you won the entire war with some small civil actions.

Europeans are good at one thing. TALK.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:28:42

I'm rather fond of Scandinavia, as a concept.

George Orwell said, "The thinking person is a Socialist."

But I'm surprised at how regressive many Scandinavians' opinions seem to be. (We have a few Canadians like that on PO.com, too.)
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'Y')ou know, I generally appreciate the EU posters here as being worldly.

But Starvid, you're coming dangerously close to being a EuroDoucheBag:
I'm just pissed off at all the whiny Americans. Get a grip people. It's no wonder that Americans are usually doomers and that Europeans are not. We know how to solve these issues, because we began doing just that 30 years ago.

You wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The riots here are really bad, with our $8-10 a gallon I mean. You don't get panic and riots from high prices. You get'em if your citizens are savages. Or French.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I')t's all about oil. Call me in 20 years when you don't have any oil and your 75% socialist tax rate is no longer salable.
We will have just as much oil then as we have now, that is none. It will still be all imported.

And we don't have 75 % taxes.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'A')nd by the way - Sweden is not the U.S..
So I've noticed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'Y')ou have a socialist country. Your sheep are used to having 75% of their income dumped into a communal heap.First, Sweden is not a socialist country. Actually, Sweden is a more free market nation than the USA. We have deregulated and privatized pretty much everything. Remember when Bush wanted to privatize the pension system? Guess whose system he was copying?

That we have higher taxes for the super-rich is the difference.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'S')o you get your "free" health care and your welfare benefits and your trains. And you're used to that.

Not in the U.S..We have, in comtrast to the state-run Amtrak, deregulated our train services.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'S')o 8 bucks here is not the same as 8 bucks in the middle of f-cking nowhere socialist Europe.

Try to get your arms around that.True... Europe is about as denseley populated as the US coasts. But Sweden is more like the heartland, and we have the biggest and thirstiest cars in all of Europe. So in that way Sweden and the US are much alike.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'O')ne last thing - nobody gives a crap about Sweden, except maybe the Swedes.For which I am forever thankful. :P
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 13:33:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joelcolorado', 'I') love to see the Europeans responses online here. Of course we saved their asses in TWO world wars which they have YET to pay the USA back for in loans etc. A loan means REPAYMENT, and no one wants to do that for gods sake.

And it will happen again when a rogue nation gets a nuke and threatens Europe with it. Like Iran is doing now. Once they can deliver one, they will begin to dictate their will on Spain and France and you others and you will cry running to old Uncle Sam once again. Hell you rolled over for Hitler and we had to come clear over there to rescue you. After it was over, you would have thot you won the entire war with some small civil actions.

Europeans are good at one thing. TALK.
Why would the Iranians threaten us? It's not like we've threatened to invade them...

And if they ever tried anything we would just nuke'em.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Cashmere » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 14:25:35

Bullshit.

I'd be taxed at 60% in Sweden just for my income, plus a tax of 1.5% on wealth, plus a VAT?

Is that right?

They also tax you for money you've already earned and already paid 60% taxes on?

What a joke.

The effective tax rate on me in Sweden would probably be over 80% once you accounted for all the VAT and any other taxes paid.

The best part is they tax you on money you've already earned and paid tax on and is sitting in the bank.

Wow.

As for all oil being imported, call me in 20 years.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby joelcolorado » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 19:05:21

Oh you are right. Iran would never attack anyone.

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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 21:55:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'B')ullshit.

I'd be taxed at 60% in Sweden just for my income, plus a tax of 1.5% on wealth, plus a VAT?

Is that right?

They also tax you for money you've already earned and already paid 60% taxes on?

What a joke.

The effective tax rate on me in Sweden would probably be over 80% once you accounted for all the VAT and any other taxes paid.

The best part is they tax you on money you've already earned and paid tax on and is sitting in the bank.

Wow.

As for all oil being imported, call me in 20 years.


Well, you certainly have your points here, Cashmere.

But: I have no health coverage and can't afford any.

So if I get really sick I have to liquidate virtually everything before Medicaid picks me up.

That's even worse than a 60% tax!

In Sweden you pay plenty, but you get plenty. Scandinavia has the world's highest living standards. Our own living standards are starting to look more and more third-world.
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