[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') see inconsistencies in some of your stated positions, Tex. That's OK. I have them too. Adjusting to doom is not a linear process.

Good post. Interesting list.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')hat Europeans do have is fuel-efficient cars and transportation alternatives. Americans could too if they were not still in denial.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') see inconsistencies in some of your stated positions, Tex. That's OK. I have them too. Adjusting to doom is not a linear process.

Good post. Interesting list.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'D')ecimation of a single industry has happened before. What happened to the buggy whip makers when cars took over in the first place? How about the makers of typewriters when computers took over? What tends to happen is the jobs lost in one sector pop up in a new or growing sector. There are going to be jobs for mechanics converting cars to electric, jobs for solar panel installers, jobs for people putting up windmills, jobs for people laying down tracks to restore rail lines, construction jobs lost to the housing crunch may be restored with people needing to retrofit their shoddy homes for energy efficiency. People just have to adapt. I went to college studying film production but I wound up making a career in the dot com space. I had to change with the times even without peakoil. That's the way it's been for a while now. It's generally expected that people have to be able to shift careers once or twice in their lifetimes.

Sometimes people just have such a negative vibe about peakoil that they can't comprehend the idea that the downward trajectory might not be as steep or as universal as their internal vision. It's not mutually exclusive. We can still experience zombie hordes and die offs but pass through transitional stages along the way.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')There is plenty that can be done tactically to mitigate unpleasant future scenarios. I am hopeful about the possibilities of thinking about these kinds of tactics.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')There is plenty that can be done tactically to mitigate unpleasant future scenarios. I am hopeful about the possibilities of thinking about these kinds of tactics.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')hy do so many posters state or assume that Europe is some tiny place where people do not need to drive farther than in the USA? Just because they have invested in public transport does not mean they do not have roads and freeways. People still drive.

[MrBill]

Dunno BT? I think the Dutch are some of the tallest people in the world? And the Anglo-Saxon disease is not confined to N. Am either. To me an Audi A4 combi has about the same inner room as a full-sized SUV just less clearance, so better mileage and handling. Certainly, the A6 has as much room. Clearance is great off-road, but as we know 90% of the SUVs are on-road about 90% of the time.

Even with a 2.0 liter, 4-cylinder engine with a manual 5-speed transmission I never felt under-powered. Now 6-speeds are coming out. People here tow big boats with very small SUVs like Suzukis. And not everyone needs a vehicle large enough to tow a boat. I think it is just perception? I saw a VW ad the other day. Their whole fleet (incl. the cross-over SUV) gets at least 100-km per 6-liters max with some models under 5-liters per 100-km. That is at least 39/40 miles to the US gallon. That is including gasoline and diesel engines.

But in any case the point is probably mute at this time in any case. The N. Am auto industry is moving so slow that we are not likely to see a dramatically different fleet until it is far too late to conserve our way into the transition period. That needed to have happened over the previous decade already. The same for building railroads. Too little too late to avoid a painful transition.

Ironically, GM (Opel), Ford and Chrysler are building good, fuel-efficient cars in Europe, while European manufacturers stick gas thirsty 4.0 liter engines in their N. Am models. Just plain dumb! Successful marketing is shaping public opinion NOT giving the customer what they THINK they want! And in any case customer tastes can change a whole lot quicker than the car companies can react with new models. Hummer today, Honda tomorrow!

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'T')BU - you're making the HUGE assumption that your demand destruction curve will be linear. It will not be.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')But, what?

[offgridbrandon]

I don't think you can put a number on this since it is a moving target. If gas hit $10 today, we would very quickly enter a depression. If gas steadily climbs to $10 5 years from now, there would certainly be a recession, but the longer we are subjected to high gas prices, the more time technology has to advance and for our economy to adjust. Funding for more efficient gas engines or alternative fuels will continue to grow the longer we are subjected to higher gas prices. At some point the paradigm will shift as a new fuel technology becomes more affordable than gas. This won't cause the price of gas to suddenly drop since developing nations will continue to be gas guzzlers long after we have beaten our dependence. Kind of sounds like a drug problem right...

___________________________________________
Simple sustainable living http://www.lifeunplugged.net

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('offgridbrandon', ' ')At some point the paradigm will shift as a new fuel technology becomes more affordable than gas.

[Revi]

I think this will be the new fuel technology: www.sunnev.com

If you have to go out of town, take the bus.

[BigTex]

Ludi, I meant both think about AND do tactical things. I am personally both thinking and doing these things.

MrBill, I am befuddled, bewildered and confused as to why there are very few fuel efficient vehicles for sale in the U.S. It's incredible that the automakers are suffering the way they are, and they are not even offering what the people NEED right now.

There is a big shiny Hummer dealership I pass on the way to work every day, and it's a very bizarre thing to observe. It almost seems like things like that should have large black curtains drawn around them.

I wonder if the SUV is not going to turn into something akin to the housing boom. So many of these SUVs were purchased with 60 and 72 month financing. What will happen when the owner is both VERY upside down on the loan AND can't afford to fuel it? They will default and the vehicle will be repossessed, but the collateral will be worth dramatically less than the outstanding loan balance.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'L')udi, I meant both think about AND do tactical things. I am personally both thinking and doing these things.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think this will be the new fuel technology: www.sunnev.com

If you have to go out of town, take the bus.

[olekriri]

At around $8/gallon we will see major problems in the US. Major strikes, rioting etc.

Ironically that price seems like a bargain in most European countries right now.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think this will be the new fuel technology: www.sunnev.com

If you have to go out of town, take the bus.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Overall I disagree with these comments, Mos. They assume that we are infinitely adaptable.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')o take a Twin Cities example. Gasoline will still be available in Minnetonka (a rich Western Suburb) long after it is no longer available on Cedar Ave near Riverside. The people on Cedar Ave will be... agitated to say the least and the people of Minnetonka will be rightly concerned about groups of individuals who look like they don't belong in Minnetonka.

I won't be watching for a certain price, I will be waiting for reports of people in the inner city robbing the gas station to fill up their tank, not rob the register. I will be waiting for the gas station on Riverside and I-94 to close. I will be waiting to hear of the people of Minnetonka setting up their own minutemen group.

For the record, Minnetonka would be nearly impossible to defend against a minimally organized force... and extremely difficult to defend from even the most unorganized of mobs.