[pea-jay]

Gee thanks for the morning cheerfulness, leaf.



You are right of course...

[nero]

One of the key differentiators between now and the great depression is the degree to which our lives are plugged into the money economy. Today we all pay for alot of things that were at that time part of the household economy. Childcare, cooking, entertainment, and house maintenance have all moved or are moving into the cash economy. That's good if you're the government and enjoy the increase in the tax base, but it does mean we are all much more dependent on the overall economy functioning smoothly.

At the same time that we have increased our dependance on the cash economy, the economy has globalized and become concentrated in larger and larger corporations or systems of corporations. In the great depression you still had many items that were manufactured relatively locally by relatively small time capitalists. Now key parts of the world economy are concentrated in only a few very large global entities. These global capitalist organizations have almost become too big to fail. How did we get into the situation where the Fed felt it necessary to bail out the obscure LTCM hedge fund? In the great depression many financial institutions failed but now the economy is so fragile that we can't handle the unexpected failure of one.

Compared to the 1930s we have an improved set of economic safety nets: unemployment insurance, social security, free health care, the FED, etc., but that doesn't translate into less risk. Our economy is now more fragile. If one of those nets did fail, or a novel disruption occured for which there was no safety net, the resulting disruption would be much more severe than the great depression.

[RIPSmithianEconomics]

Sorry, I had to delete an above statement which was extremely "angry bitter farmer's son"-esque, but sometimes consumerism completely disgusts me. And then, of course, I start balancing my budgets to buy some of the tasty cheap foods!

Since everything has gone completely off topic, how does everyone consider the future of the police?

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'T')ossing out energy of the equation for the moment, my point was since the GD institutional safeguards exist now to prevent bank runs (FDIC), abject poverty (welfare, social security), and collapses of economic activity (government infrastructure projects).

[threadbear]

FDIC insurance and all the other safeguards will require increased deficit spending and huge income and property tax hikes. This is also a disaster scenario. The only plus to this is it will absolutely kill overseas militarism. Soldiers will be needed for defence at home. Forget any new expensive weapons tech.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Maybe thats what the new killer robots are for. That way they don't have to worry about making the army kil civilians, they'll have robots for it.

[oowolf]

I walk to work. Everyone in this end of the county knows "that crazy guy that walks everywhere". Why does he walk?---that's all it takes to be labelled "crazy" in Amerika the braindead.
As for 2GD....BRING IT ON.

[bentstrider]

When it's warm, I walk or ride a bicycle.
I'm trying to get a motorcycle permit and a motorcycle to save my body's energy when it's cold out.
Thats another way to thin out the population though.
Instead of having to have a whole 'nother license to ride a motorcycle, just let people ride 'em anyway. The ignorant riders will go down the quickest.
Leaving all the alert/aware riders to deal with the die-hard, four-wheel users!!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'M')onte:

My institutional reference was largely historical. Tossing out energy of the equation for the moment, my point was since the GD institutional safeguards exist now to prevent bank runs (FDIC), abject poverty (welfare, social security), and collapses of economic activity (government infrastructure projects). In a world where energy is not a concern, these things I mentioned above will prevent any recurrances of the 1930s style depression or 1880s era panics.

Of course as we know geology trumps economics so those safeguards are history sometime after TSHTF, but before then I consider them in effect.

[bentstrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')k, I follow you now, but like then, the existing programs most likely will not be enough. Not a simple equation is it?

[Kingcoal]

Money was backed by gold in the '30's. FDR made private ownership of gold illegal, then inflated the hell out of the dollar and used the money to pay people in workfare programs.

If you think about it, we never left the Great Depression. Ever since, the government has been in control of the economy. Big changes have occurred, such as Nixon taking us off the gold standard, but our economy is still controlled by the government, which borrows money into existence, then controls it's flows through the economy via various methods including income taxes, tariffs, petrodollars, etc.

I think it all goes back to basics. European settlers bought Manhattan Island for a couple pieces of colored glass. By the time native Americans realized they were on the short end of the deal, there were too many European settlers to do much about it. Those early native Americans aren't too different than the average Joe today.

Governments have always tried to marginalize their Citizen's ownership of real value. FDR's executive order banning gold ownership is a good example. Property taxes are another. Condemnation and eminent domain rights of the government make sure that if push comes to shove, the government is the landlord and we are all just tenants. Property ownership has become an illusion. New FEMA laws allow the governments to confiscate hoards of supplies in the event of an "emergency." So much for being a survivalist.


Since we are all subjects of the Federal Government and they actually own everything we have, they can control just about every aspect of human activity.

Are we headed into a Grand Depression? Ya got me. I predicted it in 1980, 1987, 1993 and 2001. I was wrong every time and we went into a great party in the late nineties.

My take on it is that the US Government can be compared to being in the counterfeiting business. They have been getting people to accept funny money for over 30 years and counting. Some day the rest of the world may decide they don't like the fake money and want payment in something else (like Euros), but that day hasn't come yet.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uote:
$125,000 a year in family income. That's not a lot of money.


Yes, it is. I lived in Los Angeles and made less than that (combined income with my husband) paying $1500.00 a month on a rental shitbox and in four years was able to save enough money to buy 20 acres for cash in another state, plus enough extra cash to move to the property and improve it so we could live there.

Someone earning $125,000.000 and thinking it "isn't a lot of money" maybe needs to take a few lessons from the GD and learn a little frugality.

[Tyler_JC]

Read "The Millionare Next Door"

It explained how everyone will soon be super rich if only they saved a little money and started their own business. Also, when the Dow hits 82,000...

But it shows the key difference between the wealthy and the high income earners. Ever play Monopoly? The guy with all of the property always wins. The wealthy only get richer. But the high income lawyer will have to work till death to maintain his standard of living if he never saves a penny.

[threadbear]

KingCoal, Canada didn't have the same types of programs that the US had during the depression. It was more conservative. After the depression there was a tremendous backlash against that kind of fiscal conservatism, and that's one of the reasons Canada became a more "socialist" country. If FDR had not instituted work programs during the depression, you'd be living the true meaning of govt. interferance in the form of state communism right now. What you got instead is fascist corporatism and a weak govt that has completely caved into it-- the polar opposite. Things have swung back to a roaring twenties scenario.

I don't quite understand why people go apesh** about FDR and how he essentially destroyed America,etc..etc...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')I don't quite understand why people go apesh** about FDR and how he essentially destroyed America,etc..etc...

[ECM]

Last I read there were 75 million Americans with guns. When the SHTF the government is going to have a big problem taking whatever it wants from people. In fact the worse it gets the less likely the government will survive since those mega corps will enjoy the great spiral downward. No one is protected.

Precious metals have little value in a world where food, water, and shelter become the predominant concerns.

Think you beat the system by investing in Euros and riding the dollar crash out. Sorry, Europe is more dependent on foreign resources than the United States. They are going down with us just maybe a little bit later.

Unlike the great Depression things are going to get worse until we level off and there won't be much of a climb after that. It will be a permanent drop in standard of living.

My big concern is that there are very few family farms left. Perhaps the government will need to redistribute land like the communist in Russia so that everyone gets a little bit of their own land. Society is going to have to get a lot more social between individuals and communities like it was 100 years ago.

When things start going bad I am heading back to the Midwest because the coastal and western states are vastly too populated. My dad is talking about retiring and moving a bit west of where he lives now. Somewhere in East Missouri near the Mississippi. Lots of small towns there in the central and north part of the state.

Another point is that only about 2% of people work on farms now. Most of the other 98% is in serious trouble if they have to grow food. I read that in the U.K. only about 1% farm workers.

I have always believed that capitalism is the worst form of economy ever invented. It certainly is the most destructive with perpetually expanding consumption for the masses. I liken it to a rollercoaster ride, except that one day when we go down the big hill a piece of the rail at the bottom will be missing.

[Tyler_JC]

Sorry to be the nut job Conservative in this thread, but:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have always believed that capitalism is the worst form of economy ever invented. It certainly is the most destructive with perpetually expanding consumption for the masses. I liken it to a rollercoaster ride, except that one day when we go down the big hill a piece of the rail at the bottom will be missing.

[threadbear]

ECM, That was well thought out. Capitalism works for a while, it seems, but-- the philosophy of endless growth is the philosophy of the cancer cell--Edward Abbey.

Your idea about small farms is perfect. Agribusinesses will have a tough time sustaining themselves in their present form, as they're so reliant on petroleum. So perhaps, that land will have to be sold off to individuals and cooperatives and there will be some opportunity for people who are desperate to start over. There has to be some cause for optimism, don't you think?

You should start your own utopian farming community.

[ECM]

You are confusing economies with governments Tyler_JC.

A barter system can be used and was very successful and still is in some countries.

Feudalism, communism, and such are governments.

Slavery is not an economy or government it is just outright opression.

Also, capitalism and democracy do not have to exist for the other to. You can and do have capitalism in most nations regardless of government type. Democracy has existed in smaller barter communities.

Even in Soviet Russia the Dachas were important for food production and probably still are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacha

[nocar]

ECM wrote

"Even in Soviet Russia the Dachas were important for food production and probably still are."

I guess they still are. I would like to share what I noticed in Estonia on my first visit to that country last May. FYI, Estonia after leaving the Soviet Union has had a very fast growing economy. The capital Tallinn is full of new shiny glass department stores.
In Tartu, a smaller university town inland, there are also new department stores, but to a lesser extent. I took a walk around to the residential areas. In almost every garden was a green house - in bad repair. It seems like people have stopped growing things in their gardens only a few years ago, perhaps when they new great economy started. I noticed a few older people pottering around in their perfectly maintained veggie gardens, though. Judging from the wood piles, wood stoves or wood heating were still very common. I believe Estonians can quite easily revert back to growing much of their own veggies when TSHTF. They still have many people who know how to grow things.

BTW,One little thing I believe UK has in their advantage compared to the US, is their high garden consciousness. Granted that most Englishmen grow flowers rather than veggies, it is still not very different to grow potatoes, carrots and beans from growing lots of different ornamental plants. In WWII the English turned flower beds into veggie gardens. American lawns are different.

I just wish the Swedes were more like the English (or Estonians a few decades ago) than the Americans in this respect.

Nocar