[Eli]

Here is a nice little feather in your cap.

Over 2000 complain of fever, gov. says it is nothing

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')olkata, January 22 About 2,324 cases of people suffering from fever have been reported from the Birbhum district — Ground Zero of the bird flu outbreak in the state — in the last five days.

[RonMN]

India has put 26 people in isolation with bird flu symptoms and hundreds more people are being monitored: KOLKATA (Reuters)

Converted Url to hyperlink per COC 3.1.2 "Graphic content: In addition, do not include long URLs that cause the page view to widen and requires the reader to scroll." -FL

[RonMN]

Probably nothing to worry about...but...it seems like a slightly drastic move for the "regular" flu.

Quote:
More than half a million primary and kindergarten students in Hong Kong have been told to stay at home for two weeks after three children died amid recent flu outbreaks.
<snip>
The closure will affect nearly 560,000 students at 1,745 schools.
<snip>
The outbreak has not been linked to bird flu, which has been detected in birds in Hong Kong.

Full Story

[RonMN]

Quote:
A South Korean humanitarian agency says a mysterious epidemic has been spreading along North Korean towns along the border with China, killing dozens of children.

The Seoul-based Good Friends agency says five or six children have died every day since the highly infectious disease emerged on April 27.

The group says North Korean doctors have been unable to diagnose or cure the disease, and have said it could be avian flu or the hand-foot-and-mouth disease which has killed dozens of children in China in recent weeks.

Good Friends reports the outbreak has mainly affected state-run daycare centres and kindergartens, with patients showing flu-like symptoms before succumbing.

Disease spreads through North Korea border towns

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', '[')b]Quote:
A South Korean humanitarian agency says a mysterious epidemic has been spreading along North Korean towns along the border with China, killing dozens of children.

The Seoul-based Good Friends agency says five or six children have died every day since the highly infectious disease emerged on April 27.

The group says North Korean doctors have been unable to diagnose or cure the disease, and have said it could be avian flu or the hand-foot-and-mouth disease which has killed dozens of children in China in recent weeks.

Good Friends reports the outbreak has mainly affected state-run daycare centres and kindergartens, with patients showing flu-like symptoms before succumbing.

Disease spreads through North Korea border towns

[RedStateGreen]

I just found this booklet (pdf) on how to prepare for a pandemic coming through your community. It has some really good advice.

[mystiek]

Tamiflu is recommended-it does have to be started within the first 48 hours-but here's something to think about; if there's an outbreak is there enough Tamiflu? Its kinda the same question I have in my mind about bioterrorist attack with smallpox-is there enough vaccine on hand? I am already having people ask me for scripts for Tamiflu, including my staff.

[alokin]

But isn't the story old? It was in the news at least 3 years ago, they panicked really, but not much happened.
Basic hygiene and good eating habits as well as sufficient movement makes your body strong and healthy.

If really birds carry a virus, it will be on the fruits you eat on lettuce on the soil everywhere. Fruits bats who take a nibble at that mango.
You would really have to confine your chickens (a mesh on the top).

[girlscout]

I recently read Cody Lundin's book "When All Hell Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need to Survive When Disaster Strikes". There was a mention in the book of a worst case flu outbreak scenario and potential FEMA plans of having everyone quarantined in their homes for up to a 3 month period. Can anyone confirm this, or point me to a reference for it on the web? Thanks...

[HEADER_RACK]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince there will be no time period during the pandemic in which it will be completely safe to expose yourself to others, the only sure-fire way to prevent infection will be to isolate your family in your home and wait it out

[wisconsin_cur]

When I first read it in todays news I didn't think about it but since this thread has been resurrected I will pass on this from the Independent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Independent', 'T')he world is failing to guard against the inevitable spread of a devastating flu pandemic which could kill 50 million people and wreak massive disruption around the globe, the Government has warned.

In evidence to a House of Lords committee, ministers said that early warning systems for spotting emerging diseases were "poorly co-ordinated" and lacked "vision" and "clarity". They said that more needed to be done to improve detection and surveillance for potential pandemics and called for urgent improvement in rapid-response strategies.

The Government's evidence appeared in a highly critical report from the Lords Intergovernmental Organisations Committee, which attacked the World Health Organisation (WHO) as "dysfunctional" and criticised the international response to the threat of an outbreak of disease which could sweep across the globe.

The Government said: "While there has not been a pandemic since 1968, another one is inevitable." Ministers said it would could kill between two and 50 million people worldwide and that such an outbreak would leave up to 75,000 people dead in Britain and cause "massive" disruption.

[vetusfirma]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mystiek', 'T')amiflu is recommended-it does have to be started within the first 48 hours-but here's something to think about; if there's an outbreak is there enough Tamiflu? Its kinda the same question I have in my mind about bioterrorist attack with smallpox-is there enough vaccine on hand? I am already having people ask me for scripts for Tamiflu, including my staff.

[alokin]

well if you really think that there is something (I have to investivgate further) I'll buy some eucalypt oil and some tea tree oil (the first is a good stain remover anyway)

[Homesteader]

A pandemic is expected to come in waves and last up to two years.

To quote the Head of New Jersey Homeland Security: "You won't be going to work, you will be in your homes for a year trying to stay alive."

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'A') pandemic is expected to come in waves and last up to two years.

To quote the Head of New Jersey Homeland Security: "You won't be going to work, you will be in your homes for a year trying to stay alive."

[skyemoor]

If the attack and mortality rate approaches or exceeds the 1918 flu pandemic, people will be staying home out of overwhelming concern for their family. The Bush Administration was trying to change this mindset by talking about 'distancing' at work, washing hands, and coughing in a socially acceptable manner, none of which would be widespread enough to do much to slow the spread (e.g., it only takes one person in a lobby/elevator/floor forgetting to cover their mouth). Now that it looks like a pandemic won't happen during Bush's tenure, they're admitting that people will most likely feel the need to stay home. Touching elevator buttons, opening doors, knobs on faucets, the coffee mess, and so forth would be viewed as the possible touch of death. Building ventilation systems recycle air from room to room, so viral-loaded aerosols from people coughing would be spread throughout the building.

And absenteeism will likely be close to 50% anyway at homes with school children as one parent at a minimum would have to stay. And if another parent works, would they even be allowed in the same area of the house, given that they might become infected, spreading the virus asymptomatically the first few days before they become aware they are infected?

In recognition of this, Chertoff recently said;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut you would have to start dealing with the issue of absenteeism. People either not showing up to work because they're sick, or because they're afraid of getting sick, or because they're afraid that the place they're working doesn't have a plan to make sure they don't get sick, or because the schools are closed and there's nobody to take care of the kids at home, so they're not going to go to work.

And when people don't show up to work, all of a sudden, the power plants aren't running unless you have a plan in place to deal with that on an emergency basis. The food isn't getting delivered to the grocery store. That doesn't matter, though, because no one is around to open the grocery store.

So now the problems begin to cascade and ripple throughout society and potentially can magnify the damage of the underlying attack because of the collateral effects on our ability to eat, turn on the lights, get to work and deal with all the other issues which allow society to function in a well-ordered way.

In addition to the cascading collateral effects of this kind of a medical disaster is the fact that it's not going to come with a bang, it's going to come with a whisper. And, in fact, it may be very challenging to detect when it first begins. It can be hours or days before we realize the full extent of an incident. And, on top of that, depending on whether it is a natural event or a manmade event, our modeling ability with respect to analyzing the course of the epidemic or pandemic will be profoundly effected, because we have built a series of public health models based on the idea that we know how ordinary diseases spread and how they circulate among populations.

But if someone is moving around the country with an aerosol tank, spraying it all over different places, that's going to be a very different model. And therefore, one of the things you learn very quickly is, making some preliminary judgments with some basis in fact about whether you're dealing with a manmade or a natural attack has a critical impact on the subsequent course of how you deal with it.

[BigTex]

The 1918 flu outbreak should be studied by anyone who is seriously interested in what TSHTF scenarios in an industrialized society actually look like.

It's different than you think.

I linked to an excellent free online book about the history and possible future of flu pandemics in the overpopulation thread. Take a look at it if you have a chance.

BTW, a flu pandemic would likely take the young and strong in disproportionate numbers because of the way the virus infects your system. Thus, eating right and being physically fit could be irrelevant to one's survival chances.

The most common sense thing to do today, IMO, is stock up on N95 or N100 respirators, nitrile gloves, hand sanitizer and bleach. Even a rumor of an outbreak and you won't be able to find that stuff anywhere.

Tamiflu is a good idea if you can get it.

A good comfortable set of safety glasses is a good idea too. These are helpful in a variety of unpleasant scenarios.

There is reason to believe that a vaccine could be developed within six months of an outbreak, so I would think that getting through the first few months would be the most critical.

These 50 million dead estimates are silly. There would probably be more than that in India alone.

[skyemoor]

I agree with BigTex on all points, but want to delve further into this one;
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')There is reason to believe that a vaccine could be developed within six months of an outbreak, so I would think that getting through the first few months would be the most critical.

[seahorse]

This USA articled dated last April says China confirmed human to human transmission of bird flu in a case last December.

USA Today

[BigTex]

This is just a sidenote to anyone who has never had the regular flu--it can be very bad.

I had the flu for the first time in my life last spring, and it's not like other common illnesses (I sort of thought the flu might be like a bad cold). A young healthy body just doesn't bounce back from it the way it does other things.

I laid in bed for several days, cycling in and out of fever and chills as my ibuprofen kicked in and then wore off. The cough was impossible to stop, except with strong cough medicine that made it impossible to think clearly. It was also hard to sleep for any period, because it was hard to stop the cough for more than a few hours at a time.

The foggy brain from the cough medicine made it hard to read or otherwise pass the time, so it was also sort of depressing as well.

Eating? Very hard to keep anything down.

Staying hydrated? Also difficult, since it was also hard to keep liquids down.

And there really isn't much in the way of treatment, other than home remedies, cough suppressant and fever reducers.

After several days of getting no better at all, I could easily see how something like this could be fatal in some cases.

And that's just the regular flu.