[thuja]

Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'W')ake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'W')ake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')I'm not trying to belittle any finds- they are all important...but they are like rocks compared to the boulders that used to turn up.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '
')How can you call "conservatively 50 billion barrels" of oil off the coast of Brazil a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?"

How can you call 300 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?" Even if only a quarter of that is recoverable, that's a whole new Venezuela.:

[Nicholai]

"A study on peak oil, just released by the independent, non-partisan Congressional General Accountability Office, concluded that “Most studies estimate that [world] oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide, because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges, as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil. Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation.”

Great article!



LINK

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..
What I want is irrelevant, which is something I learned as a small child.
...

[Nicholai]

My Dad says that if we run into supply-shortfalls and demand begins to grow FAR beyond the pace of supply, we should issue 'fuel rationing cards'. I said I'd pay his cab to Crazy Town.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.

[Oil-Finder]

thuja, I have not mentioned the EROEI of these finds because no one has calculated what their EROEI's are.

Since these are all very recent finds, of course they aren't producing much oil yet. What - do you expect them to find a new oil field one day, and next week start pumping 1 mbd from it? By complaining that these new discoveries aren't producing vast amounts of oil yet, that's like complaining that one's newborn baby can't do calculus yet.

"OMG this newborn infant is so useless! It can't even do calculus! Wake me up when it's at least able to do algebra."



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 't')huja, I have not mentioned the EROEI of these finds because no one has calculated what their EROEI's are.

Since these are all very recent finds, of course they aren't producing much oil yet. What - do you expect them to find a new oil field one day, and next week start pumping 1 mbd from it? By complaining that these new discoveries aren't producing vast amounts of oil yet, that's like complaining that one's newborn baby can't do calculus yet.

"OMG this newborn infant is so useless! It can't even do calculus! Wake me up when it's at least able to do algebra."

.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')That's why it is important to look back at the last time an oil field was found that produced immense daily amounts...and that was the 70's (and mainly from the 40's/50's). All those finds since? They have never neared the enormity of production of Ghawar. So...yes...I will wait and see- and as I said- wake me up when we hit 500kb/d (1/12th of Ghawar).

[thuja]

Its very difficult to discuss this when you don't understand that reserves do not equal recovery...

I'll say it again because it is the crux of this discussion

Reserves do not equal recovery.

The finds were massive back then because recovery rates were massive.

Let's look at the biggest ones...

Ghawar
Burgan
Cantarell
Da Qing
Samotlor

All these were found many decades ago and some more than a half century ago. They are massive not because of their "resevres" but because of their production and recovery rates.

Nothing has neared these boys since. My advice is to stop talking too much about reserves...it sounds great on paper...but in reality?

I could add up the trillions of barrels of shale in the Rockies and Alberta and say..see..no problem! We have 20 Ghawars here in N. America...

Do you see why this would be silly? Shale has a much lower EROEI and recovery rate than those other fields did. As Chevron's CEO has said..."The easy oil is gone".

So yes- we can still get production...a little out of many thousands of fields. But massive fields with gigantic recovery rates? Name me a few since the 70's.

[Oil-Finder]

^
And you can be sure Ghawar and Cantarell started out similar to the newly discovered offshore fields in Brazil, or the Bohai Bay.

Some amount of oil was initially discovered, and at first they thought it was small or maybe medium sized. Soon they started production. As they did more and more exploration and production of the field, they gradually discovered it was bigger and bigger. As they discovered it was bigger and bigger, they realized they could extract more and more from it.

This scenario has been played over a zillion times with a zillion different oil fields.

How do you know the same thing won't happen with offshore Brazil, or the Bakken, or Bohai?

In all probability, it will, especially in the ones with the larger reserves.

It's not like Ghawar started producing 4 mbd from Day One.

[thuja]

If these old fields were pretty small compared to what has been discovered...can't you name at least a few that are surpassing their production that have been discovered in the last 30 years?

[Gandhi]

Such faith.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I')f these old fields were pretty small compared to what has been discovered...can't you name at least a few that are surpassing their production that have been discovered in the last 30 years?

[thuja]

Examine the last 30 years for new discoveries. Then let me know how many of them have reached production rates like Ghawar of over 5 mb/d.

There should be a few right? Just like you said, it takes a while for new discoveries to show production. Some of these newer finds (with even bigger reserves) in the last 30 years must have become as productive as Ghawar. So let me know a few of them that you can find...

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'E')xamine the last 30 years for new discoveries. Then let me know how many of them have reached production rates like Ghawar of over 5 mb/d.

There should be a few right? Just like you said, it takes a while for new discoveries to show production. Some of these newer finds (with even bigger reserves) in the last 30 years must have become as productive as Ghawar. So let me know a few of them that you can find...