[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'B')y the way- JD could you source your production levels for US and Canada. I think you are mixing in Nat. gas as well. From my reading US oil production has dropped much more significantly since its peak in 1970.

[Bas]

I like JD, keeping in mind that north america probably has the most stretched out hubbert curve.

hey, like my new sig?

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'B')y the way- JD could you source your production levels for US and Canada. I think you are mixing in Nat. gas as well. From my reading US oil production has dropped much more significantly since its peak in 1970.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '
')I never said there were discoveries now in active, large-scale production within the last 30 years which were bigger than Ghawar. The 3 discoveries I listed - Brazil, the Bakken and Bohai Bay - have only been discovered to have large amounts of oil very, very recently.

You're asking me to prove something which I never claimed.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'J')D,
And what about EROEI of these smaller or unconventional fields?
We may end up with the same or slowly falling nominal output for long time, but less and less of oil will remain available to the market.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But you did say that these new discoveries were likely to equal or surpass Ghawar.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'J')D,
And what about EROEI of these smaller or unconventional fields?
We may end up with the same or slowly falling nominal output for long time, but less and less of oil will remain available to the market.

[Gandhi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t still won't be enough because we won't be able to scale up in time

[Twilight]

It is still less than what we are using, that is the problem. We are eating into past discovery with every passing year, that ends only one way, whatever your quibbles over rate.

[Gandalf_the_White]

This question comes around every so often. The peak will happen there is no question about that. The only thing that remains is when and under what circumstances.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '-')- The Dude's graph is dated, with incorrect future assumptions on oil discoveries. The links I've provided in this thread alone have already disproven it, but I will soon do still more to disprove it. All you peak oilers think there's little exploration going on with few new discoveries being made, but you are wrong.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')But you did say that these new discoveries were likely to equal or surpass Ghawar.

[thuja]

Where's my 5 mb/d Neo-Ghawar?? I want my new Ghawar!!

Well you can have these shale fields- there's sooooo much oil in them....hundreds of billions of.....hey where did you go? Come back!! How about if I throw in my SUV? No? How about my 5000 square foot summer home? Hey...come back!!!

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I')n terms of Cantarell I'm just going to have to say you are wrong on that one. Here's a link...

Cantarell

that talks about that 13% decline. It looks worse this year...

[thuja]

Wow- I think you are overstating my case for me JD- like I said I side with 2-4 % decline rates after a plateau phase. I would guess that could last anywhere from 5-10 years looking at the data. And like I said, I am open to the idea of it lasting longer and decline rates starting at 1 for quite a while and then 2....and so on...so I am open to a more gentle decline as you have posited.

Really no need for describing my "position " as weak because it is variable...your scenario falls into the more optimistic side of my view.

If you have anyone to quibble with, it would be oil-finder, who believes in the CERA model which is already being rapidly discredited...

But I am a tad surprised by your talk JD- I seem to remember you always talking about how peak oil is a joke- it doesn't matter, etc. But here you are talking about being at a plateau phase. Plateau is another word for peak- just a longer and less sharp peak...have you come around to that idea that we are surfing the top of the peak now?


In terms of the importance of the large fields, I think most folks who study this are definitely concerned with large drops happening from major fields because they mean that production must ramp up from somewhere else just to keep steady (not even to increase production).

So the decline of Burgan and Cantarell and Ghawar are pretty substantial events. They signal a shift. New production is coming on line (thank god) but for how long will it be enough? You yourself guess that within a decade or two it won't suffice and we will start experiencing a slow decline. I posited just a bit sharper after the plateau. Really we're saying about the same thing here...where's the beef?

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')It seems you've got some serious explaining to do. Your position is that:
i) The collapse of big fields is S-C-A-R-Y, and will proceed at high rates of 12%+ per year,
ii) The biggest field of all, Ghawar, is collapsing,
iii) Small fields are basically irrelevant, and yet
iv) The production of Saudi Arabia, where the rapidly collapsing Ghawar is located, is not declining. In fact, in the last available month it actually INCREASED.

[thuja]

By the way JD and OIlfinder- its not just about the three or four biggies I mentioned...its many many old oil fields...

There's a great old thread where folks did research to discuss the top 20 oil fields and decline rates back in 06...here is the thread..

Top Twenty Oil Fields

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')Bakken is held back by its flow rates, as I've explained about 20 times. The way you never mention this is really annoying. It will take thousands of wells to bring anything substantial out of it; the size of the URR is irrelevant. Huge fields with crap permeability and porosity like the Bakken are like a bank account with billions of dollars in it - of which you can withdraw $500/day. I'm explaining this for anyone reading here who might be impressed by these big numbers you throw around without accounting for any of these other factors. It is notable for the size of the reserves, and the fact that it's Our Oil Not Under Their Land, and if they drill hundreds of wells per year it may amount to something substantial in the end. That's it.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')
Dude- Tupi is projected to reach a production level of 400kb/d in 2015...

[thuja]

Ugh- you win Oil-Finder- we will have oil....forever!