[Oil-Finder]

Well, these poll results so far confirm what I've already said several times during my brief time here: The majority of you believe in peak oil because you want oil production to peak, not because you truthfully care whether there is a lot of oil left in the ground or not.

In response to a couple of comments, the whole purpose of this poll had nothing to do with whether anyone believes oil production will peak sometime soon or not. I merely want to know what you peak oilers desire. That is the only purpose of this poll.

[Twilight]

I voted no.

But that's a formality.

Here is the interesting part. Do you think it makes a difference?

[Nicholai]

Peak Oiler will only debate within his own threads, and will always make a structured circumstance to keep the argument within the bounds that he desires, to achieve the point that he desires.

He says that with billions of barrels left in P2 and P3 oil, we're fine. Nothing else matters, we have lots, problem solved. Sure we're not building the infrastructure needed to offset the massive depletion going on in the world's major conventional fields, but that's not a problem right?

I asked him to show me a chart of every field coming online for every field going into depletion, to prove that there will be a problem-free transition from conventional to unconventional sources. He could not deliver. (ex, for every 0.5 mbd of production lost from Cantarel, 0.1 mbd would be increased in Alberta, 0.1 in Venezuela, 0.1 in Kuwait, 0.1 in Russia, 0.1 in X)

He'll avoid the specifics of my argument once again to offer a heavily linked article with a lengthy generalized argument...just as he always does.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'I') voted yes.

We have the technology and the wherewithal to change.

- We can use solar and other alternatives like wind. Microwave technology from space would be amazing.
- We can use modern safer nuclear reactor designs as well as the breeder reactors they are working on making commercially viable.
- We can work less hours like the French do and hunter gatherers of old did.
- We can recycle and build things so that they last and not simply throw away to be replaced every 5 years.
- We can share this rich sustainable life with all mankind. e.g. nano solar is now cost competitive with coal. When it scales up it will provide clean energy for all humanity.

What [s]can[/s] COULD we do collectively if we HAD stopPED breeding A VERY LONG TIME AGO and move our military budgets to cutting edge energy technology?

[whereagles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'w')hy would anyone want peakoil to happen?

[Oil-Finder]

Nicolai, before I gave you a link to The Oil Drum's own megaprojects database. If you aren't satisfied with that, there's nothing more I can do.

As I said before, the purpose of this poll is to ascertain peak oiler's desires. Is there any particular reason why every single thread must turn into a thread on everything and anything to do with peak oil? Or, is it possible to have specific threads on specific topics? I hope the latter.

[Twilight]

You still have not explained why desires matter.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'Y')ou still have not explained why desires matter.

[Nicholai]

Why would I ever WANT to believe in peak oil? I'm 18, I live in the suburbs, I'm going to college, I have very little money to stalk up, I have a nice family and wonderful parents...why would I want to see it all come down?

I understand that the rate of depletion in the world's major fields is much faster than the rate of expansion from our unconventional sources. I also understand that China increased its energy consumption by 20% in 2005 (largest growth in one year in all of human history for an industrialized country) and supply is quickly being outpaced by demand. Demand is growing faster than any other time in history and supply is becoming harder and more expensive to find/produce. Not only that, but Saudi Arabia still isn't revealing its reserve details, meaning that the world is still unsure at what pace we must work to build up our unconventional sources to avoid any major supply shocks.

Alberta will never produce 5 mbd, if you read the Edmonton Journal everyday, you would understand that such a goal (for any long period of time) is madness.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'W')hy would I ever WANT to believe in peak oil? . . .

[thuja]

Oil-finder- are you serious? We haven't had someone who doesn't belive that worldwide oil production is peaking or near peaking for a long time...

I just haven't seen your posts yet- but that's wonderful...

Do you realize that everyone- even the major oil companies, the IEA and even the conservative think tanks believe we are nearing peak within a decade or two.

Now to your question- its fairly complex-

On one hand I don't want it to occur because I know that the decline rate will lead to immense hardship, chaos and die-off...

Do I want that? No.

But I also realize that the peaking of fossil fuels will mean less CO2 emissions and therefore will lead to less Greenhouse gasses and less Global Warming. This in turn will allow us to retain the neccesary ecological vital supports to allow for continued carrying capacity for all life. So on a greater level- it is a good thing".

So due to that my answer would be yes.

So its complex- I don't want unmitigated pain and horror throughou the 21st century. But I want to make sure there will be an Earth left to inhabit in the 22nd...

Get it?

[Oil-Finder]

thuja,

As to the first half of your response, as I've already said before, this is not about whether anyone believes oil production will peak, or the technical merits thereof, this poll is about how many here want oil production to peak. So far a majority have voted yes.

As for the 2nd half of your reply, when I made the poll I actually had created a third "Other/Undecided" selection, but the stupid forum software cut that one off for some reason.

[thuja]

Oil-finder I am impressed you would stick around here as you will find few to no allies- so kudos for you for sticking it out. On the other hand- I think your logic leaves something to be desired. It goes something like this-

Those who want Peak Oil (for ecological reasons/Global Warming) lasck the rationality to even acknowledge new finds or the potential for greater oil exploitation because they are so locked into their belief that they are blind, in denial and locked into a semi-religious belief system around the peaking of fossil fuels.

I would have to suggest the opposite- that anyone studying the issue with any degree of open-mindedness will soon see that it is evident that we have peaked or are very near the peaking of oil. This is not a desire led belief leading to blindness- it is self-evident and has been noted by...everybody (IEA, Oil companies, even CERA). You are completely alone. If on the other hand you ignore the reality of the situation then I would suggest that it is you in a state of semi-religious denial. Sorry...

So do some of us want the peak of oil and that colors our thinking? No we acknowledge the peaking and then see the possible advantages...

[Narz]

Oil-Finder. I want oil production to peak soon AND I believe honestly that it will. Those two aren't mutually incompatible. If it turns out my beliefs are wrong I will accept that but I still want it to happen.

Note : I don't want billions to suffer, riots, rape, mayhem, genocide. Ideally I'd like to see a powerdown/efficient technofix/re-localization movement etc.

My desires (and personal actions) matter but only on a small scale since I can't directly control other people. My beliefs are independent of my desires.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'T')he only thing they really care about is that we stop producing and consuming so much oil.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'I')f oil were to not peak, our numbers and consumption would eventually be curtailed by some form of pollution, which would permanently poison our habitat.

[Twilight]

The poll shows a slim majority of respondents want world oil production to peak. Oil-Finder claims this desire would make them difficult to convince otherwise. Perhaps so. This is a moot point however, as the facts point in their favour anyway. They might be stubborn, they might have an environmental agenda, but they backed the right horse. What is a man to do?

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')il-finder I am impressed you would stick around here as you will find few to no allies- so kudos for you for sticking it out. On the other hand- I think your logic leaves something to be desired. It goes something like this-

Those who want Peak Oil (for ecological reasons/Global Warming) lasck the rationality to even acknowledge new finds or the potential for greater oil exploitation because they are so locked into their belief that they are blind, in denial and locked into a semi-religious belief system around the peaking of fossil fuels.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '
')
No I am not completely alone, there are plenty of non-peak oilers out there. If you want to know the details of my views, I am somewhere between a "gradual transformationist" and a "cornucopian." But that's off-topic.

[Oil-Finder]

^
When I say "non-peak oiler" I mean someone who doesn't think oil production will peak any time in the foreseeable future. Or if it does, it will peak because a better alternative has been found.

Who knows - maybe they'll perfect a viable electric car someday and develop fusion power, and therefore oil production will decline because oil demand will decline. A "non-peak oiler" might hold a view like that. And/or perhaps they believe there is still another several trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the ground, and therefore we don't have to worry about oil production peaking for a very, very long time.