[RdSnt]

Clustering is not a mystery, you catch a cold from those around you and the same for the flu.

And your insinuation that there is a conspiracy with the vaccine companies shows that you don't quite understand how the flu works. Each outbreak of the flu, no matter what kind, is unique. It is only after a strain has been in the population and can be isolated that an effective vaccine can be created.
The run-of-the-mill season "swine" flu is different every year. That's what you can catch it each year. The resistance you build up in your body to the one you catch won't protect you from next years.

The reason the experts are in such a panic is due to the virulence and lethality of the bird flu. Since you can't make an effective vaccine until after an outbreak, many people will die before help can arrive.

And there is a very significant problem with developing a vaccine for H2N1. It's a bird flu, which you've all heard about. Why does that matter?
The vaccine manufacturing infrastructure is based around growing the cultures in chicken eggs. The bird flu kills the eggs, and we don't have an alternate method with a large enough infrastructure to generate the large amounts of vaccine that will be required in an emergency.

If there is a serious outbreak, we don't have the capability to forestall it. We will have to let it burn itself through the population. That isn't fear mongering, that's just the practical reality of the situation.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'W')hat could cause clusters of flu deaths at military bases? Vaccines. Lots of vaccines. US troops get lots of vaccine shots. Who makes vaccines? Does USAMRIID have anything to do with the vaccines received by US troops?

[Andrew_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'y')ou've all heard about. Why does that matter?
The vaccine manufacturing infrastructure is based around growing the cultures in chicken eggs. The bird flu kills the eggs, and we don't have an alternate method with a large enough infrastructure to generate the large amounts of vaccine that will be required in an emergency.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'C')lustering is not a mystery, you catch a cold from those around you and the same for the flu. And your insinuation that there is a conspiracy with the vaccine companies shows that you don't quite understand how the flu works.

[virgincrude]

From the Guardian article: "A brother of the two men who died in Pakistan said Saturday he had been hospitalized with flu-like symptoms. Mohammed Ishtiaq said he fell ill last month after slaughtering chickens suspected of carrying bird flu at a farm near Abbottabad. "I was not aware that this was such a dangerous disease,'' said Ishtiaq, a veterinary doctor who works for a government-funded livestock program. He said he wore no protective clothing."

Imagine. A vet who is unaware of the danger. And this in a country currently at a burocratic standstill while the local Dictator of the day twiddles his thumbs and the opposition party succumb to useless bickering. Meanwhile in the Swat valley and the North West Frontier people live in hovels, sleeping side by side with their chickens, and praying they won't get blown up by the next walk-up suicide bomber....

Can anybody fill me in on the various strains, I was only familiar with H5N1, what's this H7N1, merely an avian mutation?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'H')5N1 vaccine can be produced now, without an undue difficulty, once actual strain is isolated...

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', 'C')an anybody fill me in on the various strains, I was only familiar with H5N1, what's this H7N1, merely an avian mutation?

[KevO]

The UK Government's 'Pandemic Flu Contingency Plan' states 4 to 6 months at the earliest for a vaccine to be developed. (See section 5.4 at pdf link below.) Are you going to go to work? Is anyone?
And Energyunlimited's 1 or 2% fatality guess is the most optimistic, it is currently 55 to 60% but most health experts think 10% - of all those that catch it which if it were to go into a pandemic, therefore airborne, could be a billion people.

UK Gov Pandemic Flu contingency plan

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')hit!!!!!

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'T')he UK Government's 'Pandemic Flu Contingency Plan' states 4 to 6 months at the earliest for a vaccine to be developed. (See section 5.4 at pdf link below.) Are you going to go to work? Is anyone?

[Homesteader]

Here is a link to one of the best Pandemic Flu Message boards. link

For those of you who don't think h5n1 is a big problem, I suggest you go over there and fly your misinformed ideas by the experts.

Rather like the PO misinformed do here. FWIW, your reception over there will be much more civil than it would be here.

There is a sticky near the top of the page on the Pakistan situation.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')hit!!!!!

[RdSnt]

Very true, it is counter-productive to the virus to be highly lethal. So, ironically a dropping lethality percentage is going to be a bad sign for us.

I would suggest though that the optimum lethal rate is going to be significantly higher than the historical normal, simply because our transportation system is so much more efficient.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '[')url=http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/@dh/@en/documents/digitalasset/dh_4121744.pdf]UK Gov Pandemic Flu contingency plan[/url]
Spanish flu had fatality rate in range 2-3%. If a bug is too lethal, then it doesn't spread well. That is particularly true with flu, which have only short latent period.

[ohanian]

Influenza

[kpeavey]

Pandemics are a natural form of population control. The core of the problem facing humans is that there are too many humans. Bring it on.

I am not routing for the disease. I'm sure everyone will be much happier without the thing floating around. However, debating about pandemics does not stop pandemics. One of the articles above says a pandemic is inevitable.

As with any disaster, anyone can be a statistic. All a person can do is prepare in a manner that increases their survival advantage. Eat right, exercise, stop smoking and drinking, lay off the hard drugs.

[KevO]

Saudi Arabia has begun slaughtering peak oil deniers:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Saudi Arabia orders new bird flu cull (AFP) 17 Dec 2007:
RIYADH - The Saudi agriculture ministry announced on Monday that it has ordered a further 22,500 ostriches culled following the confirmation of a new outbreak of bird flu in the desert kingdom.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'S')audi Arabia has begun slaughtering peak oil deniers: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Saudi Arabia orders new bird flu cull (AFP) 17 Dec 2007:
RIYADH - The Saudi agriculture ministry announced on Monday that it has ordered a further 22,500 ostriches culled following the confirmation of a new outbreak of bird flu in the desert kingdom.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')o here is a question:
H5N1 goes to H2H - our GIs get infected... Does our montra of "bring the troops home" morph to "send our troops to a south pacific island" ...for their own safety of course?

[KevO]

Indonesia. H2H?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal recent bird flu deaths in Indonesia are being investigated where the victims are believed to have not come into contact with infected poultry.
Indonesia's National Avian Influenza Committee says in the last three to four months there have been four cases where poultry in the victim's neighbourhoods tested negative for the virus.

It says the number is significant enough for investigations to be stepped up to gain a more accurate explanation. Last year, 20 per cent of confirmed cases in 2006 were inconclusive, meaning there was no direct contact with poultry.

This year the figure has increased to 30 per cent. Bird flu is usually transmitted to humans from infected birds, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form easily transmissible between humans. It is believed this could spark a global pandemic that could kill millions.

[KevO]

more on the vaccine time lag
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '#') This advice is coming straight from the main Australian Medical journal. They say a large and destructive flu pandemic is simply a matter of when, not if, and recommend a minimum of three month's worth of storable food in the home so that people can shelter in place. Of course they say it might take six months to get a vaccine out there once they have the exact flu samples, so why the discrepancy I am not sure, although they mention "government" would be there. Uh huh,OK, take that for what it is worth. Still beats that ridiculous "3 days" you hear all the time. 3 days isn't even a full refrigerator and one shelf in a cabinet.
# ed edit: also see this story on Oklahoma after the ice storm. unprepared folks are known as refugees and life can get tough, even if you are a refugee in your own home..

.."Food supplies in the home will need to last as long as it takes for vaccine development and production. For ordinary seasonal influenza vaccines, there is a lag of 6 months or more after a new virus strain has first been discovered until a new vaccine is available for distribution.

[RonMN]

Thanks KevO. Creating a new BF thread was a good idea.