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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 00:37:12

A dear friend who passed away several years ago said something to me that stuck.

Make the right thing to do the easy thing to do.

Want to avoid a tragedy of the commons in a waterway? The answer is very simple.

Make it law that the intake pipe for your process water must be downstream of the outflow pipe of your waste water.

Keeps the costs of clean water where they should be.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby xerces » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 03:07:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'T')han who are you planning to take up this 'challenge?'



People like you and me.


And me for the last 5 months.....long time no see friends! :)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 08:02:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', ' ')As long as we are free to use whatever resources we own, then we will not need to start shooting.


Ah, The Tragedy of the Commons.

"Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all." Garrett Hardin



I'm a believer in fate. And ours was sealed the moment the first oil well was drilled.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 08:54:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'A') dear friend who passed away several years ago said something to me that stuck.

Make the right thing to do the easy thing to do.

Want to avoid a tragedy of the commons in a waterway? The answer is very simple.

Make it law that the intake pipe for your process water must be downstream of the outflow pipe of your waste water.

Keeps the costs of clean water where they should be.


The author Rabert A. Heinlein proposed that very solution to water pollution for all inland waterways...in 1978! You can find it in the story Over The Rainbow where he has the first female President, who also happens to be of African descent, push through all sorts of common sense solutions for what ailed us in the 1970's. Too bad almost none of it got done.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 10:14:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'T')he author Rabert A. Heinlein proposed that very solution to water pollution for all inland waterways...in 1978! You can find it in the story Over The Rainbow where he has the first female President, who also happens to be of African descent, push through all sorts of common sense solutions for what ailed us in the 1970's. Too bad almost none of it got done.

I've been a big fan of R.A.H. for decades. I'll happily attribute the idea to him, as it probably stuck in my head from reading that story.

A lot of his ideas, including social commentary, and ideas for government are great. Whether you're reading the more adult, or more youth oriented stories, there is something of value in all his works.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 10:42:09

A friend of mine had a great idea for refrigerators in northern climates. Why not run a loop of tubing filled with ethylene glycol (or propylene glycol) out of your fridge and into a box or snow or ice outside. You could have it cool the fridge for free, just like a solar hot water heater works, but in reverse. You could even pump the glycol around with pv solar.

Why wouldn't this work?

It could help with the powerdown.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Iaato » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 13:21:06

Revi, it has been bugging me for years now that I'm sitting up here in 20 degree weather, with a refrigerator chugging along in my nice heated house. In the reverse of your idea, I have toyed with the idea of throwing the thing outside on my back porch in the winter, with some sort of warm conduit to the inside. Or just use my garage as a fridge in the winter, as I keep that at 40 degrees F.

David, your waterway solution to the Tragedy of the Commons illustrates the difference between pollution into a seemingly unlimited space like air or water, and pollution with feedback when the space is engineered so that it is no longer unlimited in appearance. The recycling creates negative feedback in the system. These are the kinds of mechanisms we need to build into our system to change things. It's like stopping waste removal; one would learn very quickly to limit and recycle one's trash if it was piling up on the front lawn.

Joules are going to get so pricey here in a bit that I think energy will become the defacto currency. If the USD$ has peso parity, and oil is at $300 a barrel, liter fuel bottles may become the new barter currency. When that happens, we will indeed have the watt or joule as our currency.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 14:25:42

From an perspective of energy, during the winter your refrigerator is helping to heat your house. All it is doing is pushing heat from inside the fridge to outside the fridge, which is your kitchen, which is where you would rather have it. Ignoring this, there is no question that your refrigerator would consume less electricity in winter, but what it would be doing is pumping heat from inside the house to outside the house. Depending on how efficient your central heating system is, this could hurt you. For example, if your heating system is a heat-pump then there is no question that you will be wasting electricity, as every watt of power removed from the house by your fridge will need to be pumped back in by your heat-pump.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 16:22:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Waterthrush', '
')Next, I'd set my sights on high school sports. I'd like to end them now - the children could still compete intramurally - but I know that's not going to happen barring a plague or a doubling of gas prices (either of which would do the trick). Assuming a more gradual rise in gas prices, I'd force school systems to provide a public accounting of the true costs of travel sports. Hopefully there would be a public outcry. Then I'd start whittling them back.
.



Wow! I so disagree on this one. High school sports will die a natural death if resourses get low enough, but they are so valuable! Maybe the parents are bored, but I still remember what high school sports meant to me at that age. Changed my life.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 16:42:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')I was shocked to discover that the jar of peaches I got out of the cupboard the other day from Dole stated on the lable, Peaches from Greece, packaged in Thailand. ... When I was growing up we had a small orchard and grew our own northern fruits, Peaches, Plums, Pears, Apples, Cherries and Grapes, plus we grew Strawberries in the garden. We grew enough fruits and vegetables on an acre of land to replace all the fruit and most of the vegetables for a houshold with 7 -11 residents! ...
99% or more of the people on here have no clue what you can grow for yourself with a few hours of labor a week on a small plot of land. Of course the city objects if you try and garden too much, which cetainly doesn't help matters any.


I got my 20 year old friend interested in square foot gardening this last year. She lives in an apartment, but there was a small piece of dirt next to her door that belonged to the chiropractor's office next door. On that little plot, she was able to grow tomatoes, swiss chard, cabbage, potatoes, bush beans, brussel sprouts and strawberries.

She also had a nice little compost pile that other residents of the building contributed to.

Unfortunately, she grew up eating food from cans and she continued to eat food from cans. 90% of her tomatoes went into the compost with the first frost. Turns out she doesn't like swiss chard or cabbage. The beans got too old and woody to eat... She taught herself to grow her own food, but not to eat it.
I, on the other hand, am still eating fresh cabbage from her garden in December.

For her birthday, she wanted a diet book called "Skinny Bitch." This book did what I could never do, no matter how much I preached. It convinced her to go organic and vegan. She got to the chapter about slaughterhouses and was too sickened to read further. Her mom got her a book called "Gardening When it Matters" which is all about organic gardening after peak oil. Maybe next year, she will eat her own produce.

Talk about teaching the young people! It gives me hope. The thing that I have noticed about 20 somethings today: they already have reduced expectations compared to what we had in the 90's. It may be a little noticed cultural phenomenon, but I believe today's young people already don't expect this party to last.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 17:00:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I'd like to see some estimates here about what our goals should be, per household or per capita.


By the way I should mention I do not consider this a hypothetical discussion, but a discussion of what we are actually doing or plan to do, as individuals, households, and communities. Let's keep it real, folks. :)


I'm going in a different direction than most of the people who post here, I think. Most others are interested in starting a small farm and using that as the basis for a sustainable community. While this appeals, and certainly teaches you to grow your own food and manage your own resources, it also moves you physically further away from town, which is where all your outside supplies come from.

If you don't want to be a farmer, I say move to the center of town. Find as small of an apartment as you can as close to work and shopping as possible. Close to bus or train routes, if the city is big enough to happen, or walking distance from everything if the town is smaller. Buy a bike with a trailer on the back.

Ask yourself how much YOU need to live comfortably, and then shed your excess. Then, live that way a year, and ask yourself the same question again. And again, and again. Your expenses will go down, and so will your stress. It's amazing how little you actually need to be happy.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 17:17:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', '
')Overall, the problem is that sporadic, personal attempts at making a dent do little to affect the situation. If we are to move toward, let alone achieve sustainability, we must work in concert with one another in order to build a critical mass of sustainable lifestyle choices. Walking to the backyard to reap lunch needs to be made as natural-seeming as zipping off to the convenience store in the car... for all of us, every single day.

The degree to which everyone would need to revisit their expectations for the future will be awesome, and the coordination and leadership needed to pull this planned, coordinated program off will be nothing short of legendary.


Not necessarily true. When Cuba lost their Soviet oil shipments in 1991, the people began to starve. Therefore, they began planting vegetables in all the vacant lots in the city, in the courtyards of the apartments and on the roofs. They began producing so much food that the government belatedly called it a "program" and began supporting it.

Individual actions can make a difference. Leadership NEVER really leads. Think global, act local. Set an example. People will follow your example when they feel it makes sense to them, and not a moment sooner.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 17:19:13

Sorry. Duplicate post.
Last edited by Pixie on Thu 06 Dec 2007, 18:14:15, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 17:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '[')

But I think this thread is about what we need to do NOW, not in the future. :)


But, maybe I'm confused.


Monte, is this thread about the future, or is it about NOW?


You don't need to do anything right now. For the next 20 years, owerdown will happen passively as people buy more efficient cars and move closer to their work, because the proce of gas makes them need to do so. it will be gradual, but it will balance supply and demand.

The only reason to do something NOW is because you believe in creating worldwide energy equity. If you want to be fair to the people in Bangladesh, you should immediately powerdown by a factor of 10. Otherwise, you've got time.

Alternatively, you should powerdown because it will improve your standard of living to do so. Get a smaller house--less maintenance, less stress. Move closer to work. Bike to work and lose that extra 40 pounds and reduce your risk of heart attack. Find a job you LIKE and work for room and board. Grow your own food, because it is fun and delicious and satisfying and reduces your stress.

American energy use is not necessary for standard of living. It's a lie that we all believe. You can powerdown by a factor of ten and not really sacrifice anything of true value.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 17:59:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Waterthrush', '[')
I've been keeping track of my household energy prices for a couple of years, month by month, since I joined this group. More recently I started keeping track of my personal use. in terms of therms and kwh - it's on my energy bill. Just a spreadsheet. With this thread, I'm going to try to lower my use month by month.

Should be a big-time drop this month, just had new energy-efficient windows installed. I'll dedicate any savings towards more energy efficiency.


I did both of those things a couple of years ago--both the spreadsheet and the efficient windows. I also replaced my water heater with a tankless model and my laundry machine with a front loader. Oh, and I had insulation blown into my walls. Out of the four energy efficiency things I did (right before I sold my house and moved into an apartment downtown) the tankless hot water heater was the most effective at saving energy. I can't recommend it highly enough.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 18:10:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '[')
Okay, here is an example of a real life current project that I'm working on now.

I am developing a prototype electric assisted human powered vehicle. It will be totally enclosed, and will move a single human and six bags of groceries. It will be operable in most weather conditions. It is designed to be recharged from a renewable platform, and will travel 30km at 50km/hr on a charge. Range can be infinite through muscle power alone.
:


David, I LOVE THIS! I believe there will be a market for your contraption. I will buy one! We know it works. Go to any city in Asia, and you will see all manner of human powered vehicles carrying cargo.

The bad news: I don't think that market will be very large until gas is about $15 a gallon. Once it costs an entire paycheck to pay for the gas to drive to the grocery store, the general public will take human-powered transport seriously.

The good news: That price is only about 10 years out at the present rate of increase. Hang in there. Adopt a long term business model and you will make it. Don't expect to make a lot of money in the next couple of years.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 18:38:08

Here's the little car we are working on:

www.sunnev.com

It's a neighborhood electric vehicle, and would work to get 2 people and their groceries around a town, island or small community. It'll go around 25 mph and about 20 miles per charge. The solar panel will gather about 1/3 of the energy needed each day.

It's really fun. Check out the Youtube movie. We built the prototype with Art and my high school kids. They loved it!
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 20:05:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'Y')ou don't need to do anything right now. For the next 20 years, owerdown will happen passively as people buy more efficient cars and move closer to their work, because the proce of gas makes them need to do so. it will be gradual, but it will balance supply and demand.


20 years? Gradual? You seem to either know the decline rate of oil or that peak oil is more than 20 years out, since we need 20 years pre-peak to mitigate.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 20:09:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', ' ')American energy use is not necessary for standard of living. It's a lie that we all believe. You can powerdown by a factor of ten and not really sacrifice anything of true value.


Except your job or someone elses. The energywe use doesn't go down a rathole. Somebody buys it and is employed by it's use. If our energy use goes down, our current notion of standard of living goes with it.

Conservation is a self-induced recession. On the scale needed, it is a depression.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Pixie » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 20:46:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'Y')ou don't need to do anything right now. For the next 20 years, powerdown will happen passively as people buy more efficient cars and move closer to their work, because the proce of gas makes them need to do so. it will be gradual, but it will balance supply and demand.


20 years? Gradual? You seem to either know the decline rate of oil or that peak oil is more than 20 years out, since we need 20 years pre-peak to mitigate.


Nope, neither one. All my prognostications are guess work, just like everyone else. Take it for what it is worth. However, I believe peak oil was two years ago. My prognostications are based on a decline rate suggested by (hmm... name escapes me) the former Iranian minister of oil. He thought the decline rate would be 1% until 2012 and then 2-4% after that. He strikes me as a credible expert, and the decline rate strikes me as believable. Then I ask myself, what would we have to do at that decline rate to keep use under supply? And at first, it is all doable. We (meaning those of us in the industrialized countries) all have fat cars that could stand some trimming, and a lot of us could easily stand to lose 20-40 pounds around the middle without suffering any ill health effects.

Also, my predictions are based on how people responded in the 70's and 80's. Reduce driving, buy better cars. For a while, it will work. People won't have to change their paradigms. Sooner or later, decline will overrun those efforts, and we will have to change paradigms and experience some suffering. I said 2027, but I don't know. Could be 2014 so far as I know. I doubt it's any sooner than that, and I doubt we can push it out any further than 2027.
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