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THE War in Iraq Thread pt 2 (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:18:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'Y')es, PMS, I think threadbear said it best about what's taken over in Washington.
I don't think it's a matter of some cabal having taken over in Washington, myself. Calvin Coolidge said in the 1920s that the business of America is business. Nothing new there. Circumstances have changed and the situation is dire indeed, but to claim that a Corporatocracy has taken over is about a 130 years too late.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll unpopular military occupations do erode over time. If it's popular, or becomes popular, it's often due to a political or economic annexation.
Yes, I suppose we were popular in Germany in 1945 because the alternative was a massive gang rape by the Russians.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby Carlhole » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:24:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')his military occupation may have initially been an mis-guided and idiotic plan to gain control of Iraqi oil, but the cost has far exceeded any potential benefit to the USA and has, since the first day of the invasion, proved to be an increasingly depreciating investment in soldiers and material. In fact, regardless of what is said, it's sole purpose now is to maintain the pace of killing and destruction. Yet all the major US presidential candidates openly support indefinitely continuing the senseless killing and destruction.

Yes, PMS, it seems fewer and fewer are studing history anymore.


It’s the Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jim Holt - London Review Of Books', 'I')raq is ‘unwinnable’, a ‘quagmire’, a ‘fiasco’: so goes the received opinion. But there is good reason to think that, from the Bush-Cheney perspective, it is none of these things. Indeed, the US may be ‘stuck’ precisely where Bush et al want it to be, which is why there is no ‘exit strategy’.

Iraq has 115 billion barrels of known oil reserves. That is more than five times the total in the United States. And, because of its long isolation, it is the least explored of the world’s oil-rich nations. A mere two thousand wells have been drilled across the entire country; in Texas alone there are a million. It has been estimated, by the Council on Foreign Relations, that Iraq may have a further 220 billion barrels of undiscovered oil; another study puts the figure at 300 billion. If these estimates are anywhere close to the mark, US forces are now sitting on one quarter of the world’s oil resources. The value of Iraqi oil, largely light crude with low production costs, would be of the order of $30 trillion at today’s prices. For purposes of comparison, the projected total cost of the US invasion/occupation is around $1 trillion...


This is the perspective on the Iraq War that I subscribe to. However, I would go even further and hypothesize that the 911 attacks were an important part of this big picture. And I would also include the current peaking of non-OPEC oil and the prospect of a peaking of world oil in the 2010-2020 timeframe as part of this big picture.

Back in 2001, I was wondering about about this sort of thing when, searching around on the web, I found Mike Ruppert's "FromTheWilderness" which pretty much laid out the whole geopolitical scenario. Wow, what a powerful set of thoughts it was back then.

It's funny how these ideas seem to become less and less fringe-ish as time goes on.

It makes wonder about statements such as we are seeing right now from General Ricardo Sanchez, so awfully critical of the conduct of the war and the planning for the aftermath of it. One wonders what you would learn if you could be a fly on the wall in Dick Cheney's office - maybe everything is going swimmingly according to him?

It's so hard to know for sure what's going on and so absorbingly interesting to watch this history unfold.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:27:28

Oh Shanny, I certainly don't approve, but can easily understand the rationale for getting military forces in place for the endgame. And when that time arrives the USA and China and whomever else wants to play can very quickly move forces into place to that effect. In fact, when that time arrives I wouldn't be surprised to see various military forces execute fast depopulation in the oil source regions. It will be messy.

But that time hasn't arrived yet. Maintaining military occupations in unfriendly places awaiting the arrival of this future event is very costly and wasteful. So what's preventing the withdrawl of US forces at this time? What's to gain by year after year maintaining these costly static occupations? The USA could easily move right in in a more serious fashion when that time arrives.

I don't get it.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:42:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'O')h Shanny, I certainly don't approve
a point I have been making for going on three years next month is that it doesn't matter whether we approve of this or that. It's simply not relevant what we approve of. What's going down is what's going down, period. If you don't think so, you can don your Buddhist robes, dowse yourself with kerosene in front of the White House, sit lotus on the ground and light yourself on fire if you think it will do any good. But it won't. This isn't the 60s and things now are going from bad to worse.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:42:31

PMS, thanks, that's a perfect example of a popular occupation! The US occupation of The Philippines is another. The Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia is another. History holds many and we might discuss them someday.

Back to the point, these idiotic US occupations will never, never become popular. They are eroding into unspeakable suffering just like the rest of histories gruesome collection unpopular military occupations.

And Washington knows this. And wants it to continue. Interesting.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:50:56

As the Vietnam protests were first getting underway, in 1964, many were saying exactly that PMS. They were saying, 'why bother', or, 'There's nothing we can do anyhow', or, 'it really doesn't affect me.' That's why many of the protests up to that time consisted mainly of a few dozen grey haired CP members and their supporters.

But in four years, by 1968, that had all changed. It can change now too.
I have full confidence the US people will put an end to this madness in a mostly peaceful manner... just as they did to stop the Vietnam War. But it won't happen if we give up.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 14:57:27

Interesting indeed, eastbay, that you cite the difference from 1964 to 1968. What do you suppose will be the shifting sentiments between 2007 and 2011? You really think it's going to mirror those old times? I don't think so. By 2011 I think the popular sentiment in the US will be "nuke 'em, get the gas!"
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby threadbear » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 15:18:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'F')rom a strategic POV however, where else would you rather have boots on the ground with PO approaching? Iraq has X known + Y unknown of LSC. How convenient that they are neighbors of Iran (what does Iran have that the US wants/uses/needs?). Plus, they are right next door to KSA, ready, able, and willing to assist as duty calls!
...


You grant the forces of corporatocracy way too much latitude by thinking this way. This is like inviting a tapeworm in and then asking it what it wants for dinner, thinking it will benefit you, in the long run.

The corporate tapeworm demands you martial all of your resources to feed it, and this means privatizing govt and military functions (Blackwell, Dycorp) using your tax base to destroy infrastructure and then rebuild (Kellogg, Brown and Root)

I laugh at the fungibility argument. What makes Americans think that in the future, the "American" military, won't sell the spoils of war to the highest bidder? What if that is China? And they would never do that because the American people would object? Uh huhhh..... right. You are nothing, nobody. Think Nigeria. Think Daniel Arap Moi and what he put his people through...for their benefit?
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 15:26:46

History is filled with incredible surprises. So many. I was studying in the USSR in 1985 and it seemed at that time as thought the Soviet Union would last indefinitely. I'm sure the French in 1946 thought their Indochina colony would also last indefinitely. 75,000 dead French soldiers later they were forced out by a patriotic movement.

I think a better comparison would be, what change in public sentiment will there be from 2004 and 2008. There is no doubt the US will eventually be forced from Iraq and Afghanistan. It will take a combination of patriotic resistance and home-grown anti-war protests, both of which are getting stronger, more popular, and better organized.

Those who believe there is no end to this US sponsored terror and madness can expect a big surprise. History is filled with them.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 15:33:54

Threadbear, fungibility, as I understand it, is selling oil to the highest bidder on a worldwide scale causing the price to be fairly stable everywhere. It's what we have now and what we'll have until insane scarcity arrives... at that point in time, of course, fungibility will be thrown out the window, that's for sure.

It could be in sooner or it could be later. We just don't know. It's coming at us, and we can all agree on that. When that time comes there is no telling what will happen. We will most likely be in for a great big surprise. We will all say, 'I never expected that!'
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 15:41:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', ' ')
I think a better comparison would be, what change in public sentiment will there be from 2004 and 2008. There is no doubt the US will eventually be forced from Iraq and Afghanistan. It will take a combination of patriotic resistance and home-grown anti-war protests, both of which are getting stronger, more popular, and better organized.

Those who believe there is no end to this US sponsored terror and madness can expect a big surprise. History is filled with them.
Where are the throngs protesting in Washington? Answer: they aren't there. You really think that is going to change in 12 months? It would have already happened by now. It's not going to happen, IMO. The reason, I think, is because Americans know, on one level or another, that it is about the "non-negotiable" American way of life. This will only become more explicit as time goes forward.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 16:02:23

Well, if the Vietnam protests tell us anything, it's, 'expect surprises.'

From Wikipedia:

November 27, 1965 saw 25,000 protesting the Vietnam War in DC. On May 15, 1966 another 10,000 protested in Washington. The protests were rare and seemed to be getting smaller. Up to that time it was hardly what anyone would call, 'a mass movement against the war.'

But by 1967 they started getting larger with 400,000 protesting at the UN building. By late 1968 it was changing into a mass-movement.

A similar trend is now clearly developing. In 2005 150,000 attended an anti-Iraq war protest in DC. One big difference today is that most people want the occupations to end. In 1967 the US was still split on the war issue. Expect huge protests in the US and worldwide starting this spring and summer. The pressure is growing. Congressional and Senate candidates supporting the military occupations will be kicked out of office in NOV 08. The sooner the better.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby Zardoz » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 16:10:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '.')..Americans know, on one level or another, that it is about the "non-negotiable" American way of life. This will only become more explicit as time goes forward.

Correct.

This is very different, eastbay. We American sheeple know what this is all about. We may not consciously admit it even to ourselves, but in the darkest corners of our unconscious minds, we know.

Think of the American people as unindicted co-conspirators.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby eastbay » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 16:22:43

Zardoz, Americans, generally, felt the same way about communism.

Democracy was non-negotiable and Americans took it upon themselves to do whatever it took to stop the spread of communism. It was widely believed at that time communism threatened the American way of life. By the time the war ended few bought that argument anymore.

I don't buy that argument. Not every American is a co-conspirator in continuing the military occupations.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby threadbear » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 21:06:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')hreadbear, fungibility, as I understand it, is selling oil to the highest bidder on a worldwide scale causing the price to be fairly stable everywhere. It's what we have now and what we'll have until insane scarcity arrives... at that point in time, of course, fungibility will be thrown out the window, that's for sure.

It could be in sooner or it could be later. We just don't know. It's coming at us, and we can all agree on that. When that time comes there is no telling what will happen. We will most likely be in for a great big surprise. We will all say, 'I never expected that!'


Eastbay, The implicit understanding (and this is what I mean by granting multinationals too much latitude) is that when push comes to shove, the American military, will fulfill their role as protector of oil flow into the U.S., and that they will intervene in pricing, if need be.

There doesn't seem to be any proof that they are actually occupying the Middle East to support the flow of oil into the U.S, just to support the flow of oil, and the high price of oil. The IMMEDIATE threat of diminishing supply may never have been the prime motivator, for occupation. Rather a desire to expand corporate markets for a broad range of products AND keep oil prices high, while making sure the yankee buck remains backed by petroleum.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby TheDude » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 21:17:58

Don't you think that part of the attraction of protesting the war for youth in 1968 was the novelty, standing up against the massive bummer their square parents had laid down, and all those other hoary Life magazine stereotypes?

If you want to cut them slack you could take into consideration how the violence of war was being shown on TV for the first time, making a real impact. Course us young people are so desensitized to this stuff now that's not really in the cards either.

I don't think you'll see mass protests against the war until it really hits home. Course if it's oil shortages we're talking about you're as likely to see people marching in the streets demanding the military kill everyone in Iraq so we can get our shipments of Cheetos and XBoxes, which is what Zardoz is getting at with his comment about co-conspirators. Hard not to do without foreign oil these days.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby Jack » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 21:20:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')on't you think that part of the attraction of protesting the war for youth in 1968 was the novelty, standing up against the massive bummer their square parents had laid down, and all those other hoary Life magazine stereotypes?


No - the problem was the draft. The protestors didn't want to go into the Vietnam meatgrinder.

No draft - no protests.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby Jack » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 21:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '.')..However, we won't hear a major party candidate for the US presidency make such a demand. I wonder why?

Because we're damned if we do, and damned if we don't. We can't leave, and we can't stay. Everything and anything we do will turn out badly. Suddenly leaving could result in more catastrophe than staying forever.

There is no solution. We can only pick the least-disastrous course of action, but nobody has any idea of what that may be. All choices are bad. All options have terrible ramifications.

Pat Buchanan said before the invasion that it would be the biggest strategic foreign policy mistake in the history of the nation. Even he probably did not know just how correct he would turn out be.


I believe there is much wisdom and insight in Zardoz' comment. I agree completely.

I have taken the liberty of quoting his statement in its entirety; it's worth reading and reflection.
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 22:09:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', ' ')It will take ...home-grown anti-war protests....getting stronger, more popular, and better organized.


There is no sign of that. Now the democrats have control of Congress the anti-war protests have virtually fizzled out. :roll:
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Re: A Nightmare With No End In Sight

Postby SinisterBlueCat » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 22:27:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')on't you think that part of the attraction of protesting the war for youth in 1968 was the novelty, standing up against the massive bummer their square parents had laid down, and all those other hoary Life magazine stereotypes?


No - the problem was the draft. The protestors didn't want to go into the Vietnam meatgrinder.

No draft - no protests.


oh that is so spot on! for all of the insults hurled at it, one has to admit, this administration has been brilliant in its ability to move forward its objectives.

as long as most folks can continue their current way of life while being able to say things like, 'well those national guards knew what they were getting into when they signed on the dotted line. so tough titty' we will have no protests like those of the 1960's

if the iraq war would come to the door step of every household in america... then and only then...would things change.
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