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THE War in Iraq Thread pt 2 (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 19:52:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust when you thought you'd already seen the dumbest threads, along comes an even dumber one . . .

Why the hell would the economy collapse if the troops came home? By that logic the economy would have collapsed when the troops from the Balkans came home, when the troops from Iraq #1 came home, when the troops from Vietnam came home, when the troops from Korea came home . . . etc. Heck, by this logic we would never have let the Revolutionary War end for fear of the economy collapsing! :lol:


Oily,

You are in denial. Lets just clarify:
1. There is no economic recovery.
2. All the cheap energy is gone.
3. We passed the earth's carrying capacity years ago.
4. Today's economy looks nothing like any of the economies previous troops came home to.
5. We are in the beginning stages of an historic global collapse.
6. Omama WILL NOT pull 400 billion dollars out of the make believe recovering economy that we are spending each year in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
7. As a bench mark to the 400 billion dollars' importance, the 'said' stimulus package was just barely twice that.
8. Omama will not overwhelm the already overwhelmed job market by setting it awash with reservists deactivated from active duty demanding their jobs back. Nor will he do the same with all the active duty soldiers who will immediately get out as soon as they are home.

But please Oily, keep posting. Your thoughts are wildly entertaining, to say the least.
Last edited by Buggy on Tue 18 Aug 2009, 21:36:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 21:31:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust when you thought you'd already seen the dumbest threads, along comes an even dumber one . . .

Why the hell would the economy collapse if the troops came home? By that logic the economy would have collapsed when the troops from the Balkans came home, when the troops from Iraq #1 came home, when the troops from Vietnam came home, when the troops from Korea came home . . . etc. Heck, by this logic we would never have let the Revolutionary War end for fear of the economy collapsing! :lol:


Oily,

You are in denial. Lets just clarify:
1. There is no economic recovery.
2. All the cheap energy is gone.
3. We passed the earth's carrying capacity years ago.
4. Today's economy looks nothing like any of the economies previous troops came home to.
4. We are in the beginning stages of an historic global collapse.
5. Omama WILL NOT pull 400 billion dollars out of the make believe recovering economy that we are spending each year in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
6. As a bench mark to the 400 billion dollars' importance, the 'said' stimulus package was just barely twice that.
7. Omama will not overwhelm the already overwhelmed job market by setting it awash with reservists deactivated from active duty demanding their jobs back. Nor will he do the same with all the active duty soldiers who will immediately get out as soon as they are home.

But please Oily, keep posting. Your thoughts are wildly entertaining, to say the least.

1. There is an economic recovery. Sorry to inform you.
2. Not all the cheap energy is gone.
3. Nobody has the slightest clue what earth's carrying capacity really is, or even if the concept of carrying capacity is anything more than somebody's mumbo jumbo.
4A. You repeated 4 twice. If you can't even count, why should anyone take you seriously! :lol:
4B. Today's economy looks a helluva lot like a lot of other economies troops came home to.
5. 400 billion dollars is roughly the GDP of North Carolina last year. Shouldn't be much of a problem.
6. 400 billion dollars is roughly the GDP of North Carolina last year. Shouldn't be much of a problem.
7. Compared to a lot of previous wars, the number of troops serving in Afghanistan and Iraq is not even all that much. Compare the numbers to those serving in Vietnam, for example. The return of these relatively small numbers will barely even be noticed by the job market.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 22:09:55

Oily,

Thank you for catching my numeric mistake. I went back and added one in the middle and I am used to the programs I use at work auto-correcting. Hopefully my integrity remains somewhat intact.

Please don't misunderstand, I hope you are right. I hope there is a recovery. I hope my four children have the same opportunities I had. However, being a scholar of numbers, it is mathmatically impossible to recover from infinite debt (yes, 63 trillion dollars in obligations is infinite debt). Show me an equation that proves borrowing more money than we make gets us out of debt.

I stand corrected. All the cheap energy is not gone. The cheap energy that is left, I assume you are referring to coal, will come at a dear price. Please don't tell me you are buying into Pickens' natural gas plan.

As for carrying capacity, I have been on two missions trips to Africa and have seen first hand that we have exceeded our carrying capacity.

Can you please tell me what other war hero returned to an economy with almost 12 trillion "official" dollars on the national debt clock and 20 percent real unemployment? Or hey, let's just do gasoline prices. Troops returning from Korea came home to 23 cent per gallon gas and the greatest economic times we will ever experience. The vast majority of Vietnam Vets came home to the most awesome muscle car era with 30 cent per gallon gasoline!

As for state GDP numbers, you need to study just how much an impact is made by the smallest reduction in income on a national scale.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'J')ust when you thought you'd already seen the dumbest threads, along comes an even dumber one . . .

Why the hell would the economy collapse if the troops came home? By that logic the economy would have collapsed when the troops from the Balkans came home, when the troops from Iraq #1 came home, when the troops from Vietnam came home, when the troops from Korea came home . . . etc. Heck, by this logic we would never have let the Revolutionary War end for fear of the economy collapsing! :lol:


Oily,

You are in denial. Lets just clarify:
1. There is no economic recovery.
2. All the cheap energy is gone.
3. We passed the earth's carrying capacity years ago.
4. Today's economy looks nothing like any of the economies previous troops came home to.
4. We are in the beginning stages of an historic global collapse.
5. Omama WILL NOT pull 400 billion dollars out of the make believe recovering economy that we are spending each year in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
6. As a bench mark to the 400 billion dollars' importance, the 'said' stimulus package was just barely twice that.
7. Omama will not overwhelm the already overwhelmed job market by setting it awash with reservists deactivated from active duty demanding their jobs back. Nor will he do the same with all the active duty soldiers who will immediately get out as soon as they are home.

But please Oily, keep posting. Your thoughts are wildly entertaining, to say the least.

1. There is an economic recovery. Sorry to inform you.
2. Not all the cheap energy is gone.
3. Nobody has the slightest clue what earth's carrying capacity really is, or even if the concept of carrying capacity is anything more than somebody's mumbo jumbo.
4A. You repeated 4 twice. If you can't even count, why should anyone take you seriously! :lol:
4B. Today's economy looks a helluva lot like a lot of other economies troops came home to.
5. 400 billion dollars is roughly the GDP of North Carolina last year. Shouldn't be much of a problem.
6. 400 billion dollars is roughly the GDP of North Carolina last year. Shouldn't be much of a problem.
7. Compared to a lot of previous wars, the number of troops serving in Afghanistan and Iraq is not even all that much. Compare the numbers to those serving in Vietnam, for example. The return of these relatively small numbers will barely even be noticed by the job market.
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 22:13:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'S')how me an equation that proves borrowing more money than we make gets us out of debt.

$63 trillion in debt = $63 trillion in credit.

Where do you think all the money goes to when you pay off debts? Mars?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 22:37:02

BTW, just to remind you you aren't quite thinking of everything . . .
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'C')an you please tell me what other war hero returned to an economy with almost 12 trillion "official" dollars on the national debt clock and 20 percent real unemployment? Or hey, let's just do gasoline prices. Troops returning from Korea came home to 23 cent per gallon gas and the greatest economic times we will ever experience. The vast majority of Vietnam Vets came home to the most awesome muscle car era with 30 cent per gallon gasoline!

In real terms, gasoline prices back after the Korean War weren't all that much lower than they are now. In the early 50's, the real price of gasoline was somewhere around $2.30/gallon. Right now, the average US gasoline price is about $2.60. So, no big deal there. Same with the Vietnam War. In the mid-70's gas was about $2.30/gallon as well, adjusted for inflation.

Image

Also, there was a big recession in 1974 and another one in 1980. There was also a recession in 1953 after the Korean War ended. So, no piece of cake for them either.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 22:44:19

Might as well cover this one too . . .
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'C')an you please tell me what other war hero returned to an economy with almost 12 trillion "official" dollars on the national debt clock and 20 percent real unemployment?

The soldiers returning from WWII faced public debt worth a staggering 120% of GDP. Even Obama's budget for the current fiscal year (2010) is only around 80%.

Also, the unemployment rate in the mid-70's after the Vietnam War ended was no picnic. During most of 1975, the "official" rate exceeded 8%. That's not as high as the current rate, but it's not as if those 70's muscle cars were any consolation.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 22:56:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'S')how me an equation that proves borrowing more money than we make gets us out of debt.

$63 trillion in debt = $63 trillion in credit.

Where do you think all the money goes to when you pay off debts? Mars?


Now we're getting somewhere! Our fiat currency system is a farce. The US of A will keep running up our credit limit as long as the world will let us. And that is only because we carry the biggest stick. Our borrowing is Rome's version of pillaging. Only when Rome could pillage no more did Rome collapse. Only when we can borrow no more will we collapse. Have you been paying attention to the treasury auctions? No, not what the MSM says, but what folks like Chris Martenson, Michael Panzner, Elizabeth Warren and Carolyn Baker are saying?
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 23:09:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'T')he US of A will keep running up our credit limit as long as the world will let us.

I'm going to use this as an opportunity to make you do a little thought experiment. Except that it's not really so experimental.

First, as an aside, a large percentage of American Federal debt is owned by Americans and American institutions. If Bank of America buys $10 billion in 2-year US Treasuries, which the US has to pay back BofA $10 billion + interest in 2 years (assuming BofA doesn't sell them in the meantime), that is nothing more than money coming from the USA, going back to the US. It amounts to "money we owe ourselves."

Now for the thought experiment part . . .

Let's say the Chinese buy $10 billion in 2-year Treasuries. In 2 years (again assuming the Chinese don't sell the bonds in the meantime), the US has to pay the Chinese $10 billion + interest. Let's say, with interest the payback amount comes to $10.1 billion. So the Chinese hand in their Treasury notes, and the US Treasury Department forks over $10.1 billion to the Chinese.

Question: What happens to that $10.1 billion after it gets back into Chinese hands? I'll get you started: It doesn't disappear into thin air, and the Chinese don't burn it either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'H')ave you been paying attention to the treasury auctions?

I've got a whole thread here on it, in case you haven't noticed. Some auctions go good, some go so-so, a few don't go too well at all.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 07:52:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'ve got a whole thread here on it, in case you haven't noticed. Some auctions go good, some go so-so, a few don't go too well at all.


Do you think the selling debt to China thing can go on forever, and if not, when do you see it ending?

Also, at what % of the Federal budget (current it is 20% I think) do you see interest on national debt reaching critical?
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 10:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')
Where do you think all the money goes to when you pay off debts? Mars?


It disappears, which is why the FedRes never pays off.
The last time it tried it, the Great Depression was exacerbated.

The same thing with default except you now have the additional factor of the "creditor" not being made whole, who then has to
make good on less. A deflationary spiral.

See BofA and Caribbean banking centers for details:
h/t jrdeputyaccountant:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y favorite is the Caribbean banking centers.

We owe the Caribbean banking centers over $100 billion. I like to ask audiences back home if anyone is doing business with the Caribbean banking centers. I have never had a hand go up. I do not know where the Caribbean banking centers get their money, but we owe them $108 billion
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 10:40:56

Here's a neat question. What happens when: Chinese wages rise and the cost of manufacturing goods goes up in China and the Chinese start buying more of their own goods?

Answer: Inflation.

Next question:
After inflation, what happens when interest rates go up?

Answer: the interest on the national debt which is 20% or so becomes a higher portion of the budget.

At a certain point, raising taxes to offset that will hurt economic growth and crush your tax base. Interest at a certain % of the budget, a tipping point will be reached.

At this point, with inflation in the future and debt interest we are in trouble without peak oil even becoming an issue (and it will).

I view hyperinflation and the destruction of the dollar as inevitable as a tsunami coming. So the question is what happens after this?

Massive money printing like Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe? Default on debt like a banana republic? I vote for default (not that I get a vote)
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 11:57:32

Let's do a visual experiment. Turn your telescope around. Ah, much better. Now, where did the 10 billion dollars come from to pay back China? Where did the .1 in interest come from to service the debt?
Where did that large percentage of debt come from that America owes Americans? The answer to all these questions is the cannon ball that is sinking the ship, and every other ship that has ever tried it.

Quantitative Easing

You spoke fecesioulsy of money disappearing into thin air. The inverse is actually true. The Fed has been creating money out of thin air. So the real question is going to be not whether or not America will pay its debts, but how much will the dollar be worth. And that my friend, is what has anybody who is holding greenbacks in a collective sweat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'T')he US of A will keep running up our credit limit as long as the world will let us.

I'm going to use this as an opportunity to make you do a little thought experiment. Except that it's not really so experimental.

First, as an aside, a large percentage of American Federal debt is owned by Americans and American institutions. If Bank of America buys $10 billion in 2-year US Treasuries, which the US has to pay back BofA $10 billion + interest in 2 years (assuming BofA doesn't sell them in the meantime), that is nothing more than money coming from the USA, going back to the US. It amounts to "money we owe ourselves."

Now for the thought experiment part . . .

Let's say the Chinese buy $10 billion in 2-year Treasuries. In 2 years (again assuming the Chinese don't sell the bonds in the meantime), the US has to pay the Chinese $10 billion + interest. Let's say, with interest the payback amount comes to $10.1 billion. So the Chinese hand in their Treasury notes, and the US Treasury Department forks over $10.1 billion to the Chinese.

Question: What happens to that $10.1 billion after it gets back into Chinese hands? I'll get you started: It doesn't disappear into thin air, and the Chinese don't burn it either.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'H')ave you been paying attention to the treasury auctions?

I've got a whole thread here on it, in case you haven't noticed. Some auctions go good, some go so-so, a few don't go too well at all.
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 15:29:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'D')o you think the selling debt to China thing can go on forever, and if not, when do you see it ending?

I guess you weren't interested in follwing my "thought experiment." If you were willing to do so we would have eventually come to an answer.

In partial response to your other replies, I was trying to get you to think about what happens to that $10.1 billion dollars in Chinese hands once their 2-year Treasuries mature, not what the Fed does or doesn't do.

So let me ask you again: The Chinese have bought $10 billion in 2-year Treasuries. 2 years is up, and with interest they hand in their notes and get $10.1 billion in US$ from the Treasury Department. So please answer the following question: Once that $10.1 billion gets back into Chinese hands, what happens to it?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 15:35:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'D')o you think the selling debt to China thing can go on forever, and if not, when do you see it ending?

I guess you weren't interested in follwing my "thought experiment." If you were willing to do so we would have eventually come to an answer.

In partial response to your other replies, I was trying to get you to think about what happens to that $10.1 billion dollars in Chinese hands once their 2-year Treasuries mature, not what the Fed does or doesn't do.

So let me ask you again: The Chinese have bought $10 billion in 2-year Treasuries. 2 years is up, and with interest they hand in their notes and get $10.1 billion in US$ from the Treasury Department. So please answer the following question: Once that $10.1 billion gets back into Chinese hands, what happens to it?

They spend it to snap up stockpiles of raw materials of iron, petroleum and copper like they have been.
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 15:48:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'T')hey spend it to snap up stockpiles of raw materials of iron, petroleum and copper like they have been.

OK, now we're gettting somewhere.

So, the Chinese have $10.1 billlion USD. Let's say they next decide to buy $10.1 billion in iron ore and copper ore from Australia. So the Chinese give $10.1 billion to Australia, and the Australians give the Chinese X tons of iron and copper ore.

But, alas, we haven't solved the problem. Now it is the Australians who have $10.1 billion USD. Next question is, what do they do with it? Do they burn it? Does it fizzle into thin air once it reaches Australia? What, exactly, happens next?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 17:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'T')hey spend it to snap up stockpiles of raw materials of iron, petroleum and copper like they have been.

OK, now we're gettting somewhere.

So, the Chinese have $10.1 billlion USD. Let's say they next decide to buy $10.1 billion in iron ore and copper ore from Australia. So the Chinese give $10.1 billion to Australia, and the Australians give the Chinese X tons of iron and copper ore.

But, alas, we haven't solved the problem. Now it is the Australians who have $10.1 billion USD. Next question is, what do they do with it? Do they burn it? Does it fizzle into thin air once it reaches Australia? What, exactly, happens next?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or years American Treasury officials, often accompanied by the biggest of big names in America, have been trooping to Beijing to ask, beg, demand and implore the Chinese to let the value of the yuan, as their currency is called, rise in relation to the dollar. Doing so would make American products cheaper abroad, so that more would presumably be sold, while foreign products would become more expensive so that presumably less would be bought by Americans.

Americans claim that the Chinese are cheating by "artificially" keeping the yuan so cheap in relation to the dollar, but that argument is dribble. In these realms everything is "artificial." Money itself is just an idea that people have made up.

The "artificial" thing the Chinese do to keep their currency cheap is to take the dollars we pay them for the stuff we buy from China and put it in their piggy banks instead of spending it. Once those dollars disappear into the piggy banks, there are fewer of them floating around. That makes them scarce, which makes the dollar more expensive.

Why saving dollars is more artificial than spending them is a conundrum past solving. In any case, Washington wants a weak dollar--except when it doesn't. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. says, "A strong dollar is clearly in our nation's interest." The whole business is a muddle. Obviously, a strong dollar brings with it financial power for the United States around the globe, even as it accelerates the "great sucking sound" of jobs fleeing overseas.


Check

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the meantime the Chinese dragon seems to be stoking his boiler and is beginning to spend some of his piggy-bank dollars. He's opening his wallet to lock up oil and minerals in South America and Africa. He is using that American money to make deals in the Middle East as people everywhere learn that the yuan spends as good as the dollar.


They are using the dollar to strengthen our enemies.

Checkmate

Take your game and go home.

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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby Buggy » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 17:59:01

Yup, so sad.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', 'I')t's all bollocks really.

Not real money, not real commodities, just NUMBERS in a computer.

Don't worry about it, play the game. The numbers will "reset" to zero soon.

Anyway, Re: Iraq and Afghanistan, seen the news today ? Leave em alone, bring our brave lads and lasses home - let them bomb the hell out of each other. What a shithole.

Allah knows many ways !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chins up and keep partying - according to some, on this site, we will all fry soon !!

edited - oh, and **** (TPTB in) China

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Re: Iraq and Afghanistan

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 19:39:49

Buggy you did not answer the question you were replying to.

We are no longer talking about the Chinese. You just repeated what I already said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'H')e's opening his wallet to lock up oil and minerals in South America and Africa.


The Chinese now have X tons of iron and copper ore, and it is now the Australians (or South Americans or Africans, if you will) who have the $10.1 billion US dollars. Tell me: What now happens to that $10.1 billion US dollars which are now in Australian, South American or African hands? Please answer the question. Thank you.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
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copious.abundance
Fission
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